Summary of the Core Content
The movie "Niulai" initially had very few showings (as few as 6 per day) upon its release, but it suddenly became a huge hit within two days: the number of screenings increased from 6 to 14,080, box office revenue soared from 2.49 million to 5.2 million, and the number of viewers rose from 90,000 to 190,000. This turnaround not only indicates that audiences have not distanced themselves from cinemas but also reveals a common dilemma in the film market (as well as in the stock market and football world) – people are always waiting for a "bull market," more viewers, or the World Cup, while overlooking the importance of allowing for flexibility and leaving room for the unexpected. The article uses the example of "Niulai" to emphasize that the wisdom of markets does not lie in being always correct; rather, it lies in the ability to change one's mind in a timely manner. If potential remains just talk, it becomes a polite excuse for something that never happens. Only by making room for smaller projects can demand actually emerge.
Breakdown and Interpretation
1. The Comeback of "Niulai": An Unexpected Success Driven by Audiences
The success of "Niulai" was not due to any sudden improvement in the film's quality (the visuals or dialogue remained unchanged); rather, it was because audiences suddenly decided they wanted to see it. Some were curious about what such a seemingly poor-quality movie was like, some wanted to participate in the joke of "saving a forgotten film," and others simply wanted to have the opportunity to review it. Regardless of their motives, buying tickets was a concrete action – 190,000 people were willing to spend money and go to the cinema, proving that audiences had not disappeared from the vicinity of cinemas; they just needed a reason to do so. This reason might not have been part of the industry's plans (for example, the film wasn't a big IP or featured by popular stars), but the market needed to embrace this unexpected success.
2. The Film Market's "Dependence on Festivals": What's Missing Is Regular Attendance, Not a Big Event
In the first half of this year, 61% of movie box office revenue came from February (the Spring Festival) and May (Labor Day), with average monthly revenues below 170 million yuan – it's like a family only eating a special meal during the New Year and making do otherwise. The initial few showings of "Niulai" were not due to the cinema's foresight; rather, they did not completely dismiss the film, leaving room for something that had yet to prove its worth. The subsequent surge in demand shows that what the market lacks is not a one-time blockbuster event but a regular incentive for audiences to go to the cinema, rather than relying solely on festive gatherings.
3. The Wisdom of Screening Schedules: Flexibility Is More Important Than Being Always Correct
Cinema schedules are not set in stone – it's fine to have only 6 showings yesterday (if no one attended) or 10,000 today (if there is demand). What matters is that the schedule does not turn past decisions into permanent truths. For instance, some screenings of "Niulai" in Shenzhen were full, while others were empty; audiences might just enter to take photos and leave, but that's their choice. The market’s approach is to let people make their own judgments with their money, allowing for occasional mistakes. If all mistakes are prevented, the unexpected cannot happen.
4. A Comparison of Three Types of Waiting: The Film Market Has a Unique Advantage
Stock investors wait for a bull market, football fans await the World Cup, and film makers hope for audiences to return – all three situations resemble waiting in "Waiting for Godot." Systems may push signals of success (such as rising stock prices or team victories) to keep everyone waiting. However, the film market has an advantage: its schedules can be updated daily. The World Cup comes every four years, and the stock market is unpredictable, but cinemas can adjust their schedules daily. They cannot guarantee that something will happen, but they don't preclude possibilities by setting fixed plans for the future. This flexibility gives the market a better chance to accommodate the unexpected.
5. "Potential" Is Not an Excuse: Don't Let "Niulai" Remain Just a Promise
The article states that "potential is merely a polite way of referring to something that hasn't happened yet." The Chinese film market has potential, but it cannot be relied on for sustained success. The title "Niulai" is a call for attention, not an indication of immediate success. The word "has arrived" (represented by the character "le") is small, but it requires the market to take action: by reserving some flexible showings for smaller projects and allowing audiences to influence the schedule through their purchases, the market can correct its own assumptions. "Niulai" didn't prove itself to be a great movie, but it did demonstrate the value of leaving room for the unexpected. Don’t pre-empt success by locking in certain outcomes; by updating schedules daily, opportunities remain open.
Final Conclusion
The story of "Niulai" teaches us that market vitality comes from the willingness to change plans, not from perfect predictions. Audiences are still there; what's needed is an opportunity to be recognized. Don't let potential become an excuse. Leave room for smaller, unconventional, and unproven projects – perhaps the "bull" will make its way through the gaps in our expectations.