Core Summary of the Analysis
The central argument of this article is that it has become increasingly difficult to earn legitimate money. One of the key reasons for this is that it is no longer possible for people to earn amounts that exceed their level of knowledge. Over the past four decades, many individuals were able to make substantial profits by taking advantage of the era’s benefits, having the courage to take risks, and relying on factors beyond their actual abilities (such as background, location, or connections). However, today, whether one follows the right path or the wrong one, genuine skills and knowledge are essential; without a sufficient level of intelligence, it is simply not possible to succeed. The times have changed, and the conditions that allowed for unregulated growth have disappeared.
Detailed Interpretation
1. Money in the Past: Risk-Taking + Seizing Opportunities, Without Much Need for Knowledge
More than forty years ago, as China began to open up after a period of severe scarcity (lack of resources, information, and access to channels), the market was virtually untouched. The logic behind making money back then was straightforward:
- Farmers-turned-Businessmen: Illiterate farmers from the Pearl River Delta ventured into business, starting factories engaged in the “three imports and one supplement” industry (importing goods, processing them, and selling them locally). Their success relied on networking to obtain raw materials, having a thick skin, and being able to drink alcohol—none of which required knowledge of research and development or logical thinking.
- People Within the System: Those with connections within state-owned enterprises (such as the railway or tobacco industries) or who lived in prosperous cities like Beijing or Shanghai had an advantage, even if their level of education was similar to that of rural residents.
- Survivor Bias: Only a few succeeded; most farmers remained farmers, and many business owners eventually failed (for example, by investing in real estate when their finances dried up), but only the successful ones were remembered.
In essence, they profited from information asymmetry and gaps in the system, rather than from their intellectual abilities.
2. Money Today: Both Legitimate and Unethical Paths Require Real Skills
To earn money today, one must use their brain regardless of the approach:
- Legitimate Paths: Graduates from top universities possess more complex knowledge, but it is harder to turn this into profit. They need to enter growing industries (such as chip or AI technology) and have systematic skills (e.g., understanding exchange rates, tax laws, and algorithms for cross-border e-commerce; managing supply chains, warehouses, and traffic for online stores).
- Unethical Paths: Even fraud is more challenging nowadays; what used to be possible with just persuasive talk thirty years ago now requires creating presentations, understanding psychology to manipulate emotions, and navigating legal loopholes.
- High Compliance Costs: Regulations are stricter, and violations result in fines.
Even the workplace within government agencies has changed dramatically; what used to be tolerable (slacking off) is now strictly punished, with frontline civil servants dealing with significantly more complex tasks.
3. The Old Generation’s Misunderstanding: Thinking Their Success Was Due to Their Own Efforts
Many older people believe their success was due to their courage and experience, fondly recalling how things used to be. However, they were actually riding on the wave of the times—economic growth, policy benefits, and an unexplored market.
Today’s young people cannot simply replicate their methods; for example, what worked in the past (casting a wide net without specific targets) no longer yields results, as the circumstances have changed.
4. Why It’s Difficult: The Era of Unregulated Growth is Over
The ease of making money in the past was due to a transitional period from extreme scarcity to relative stability, characterized by information asymmetry, flawed systems, and large gaps in demand.
Today:
- Information Transparency: Consumers are more informed and use social media platforms to prevent fraud.
- Improved Regulations: Compliance costs are high, and actions are strictly regulated.
- Industry Upgrades: Emerging industries (like chip and AI) reject traditional approaches, overturning old ways of thinking.
These changes cannot be overcome by sheer courage or hard work; they require genuine knowledge and skills.
5. Don’t Overestimate “Successes” from the Past
Many of the successful individuals from the past had limited levels of education. For instance, they might have adhered to outdated beliefs from the Cultural Revolution era or valued gender stereotypes, but this did not hinder their ability to earn money and gain power. Back then, success was driven by luck, the times, and factors beyond knowledge.
Today, without sufficient knowledge, it is difficult to even secure a basic salary—for example, one cannot enter the cross-border e-commerce industry without understanding algorithms or the technology in AI fields.
In Conclusion
To earn legitimate money today, one must match their level of intelligence. The era no longer offers opportunities for those who lack critical thinking and skills. Either improve yourself or accept the reality.