Summary of Key Points
The AI company Anthropic has recently become an absolute sensation: its annual revenue has soared from $47 billion to $65 billion in just two months, an increase of nearly 40%. Its revenue in the second quarter exceeded $11.5 billion, a 14-fold year-on-year growth, surpassing OpenAI, which currently has an annual revenue of around $40 billion. Wall Street is already using Anthropic’s revenue target for 2028 ($190-$200 billion) to estimate its value, with potential IPO valuations reaching over $2 trillion. Some even discuss whether it could become the first company in human history to reach a market value of $10 trillion. This phenomenon is driven by the “centralization” trend within the AI industry—advanced AI models require massive computing power and capital, which only a few companies can afford. At the same time, capital is circulating around Anthropic: Amazon has invested in it, and it in turn purchases computing resources from Amazon; NVIDIA is collaborating with financial giants to support its infrastructure needs. Everyone is betting that Anthropic will continue to grow.
Detailed Analysis
1. How “Exorbitant” Is the Revenue Growth?
Anthropics growth rate is truly astonishing:
- Annual Revenue: It was $47 billion in May this year and reached $65 billion by the end of July, an increase of $18 billion in just two months—this amount is roughly equivalent to OpenAI’s entire annual revenue for 2025 ($20 billion at that time).
- Quarterly Performance: Revenue in the second quarter exceeded $11.5 billion, a 14-fold year-on-year increase. Many listed companies struggle to achieve this level after years of development, yet Anthropic maintains the growth pace of a startup despite its already substantial size.
- Surpassing OpenAI: Just half a year ago, OpenAI’s annual revenue was more than twice that of Anthropic ($20 billion vs $9 billion); now Anthropic has overtaken it by 60% ($65 billion vs $40 billion). Such rapid growth is rare in the history of technology.
In short, Anthropics isn’t just a small company growing rapidly due to a low starting point; it’s a “giant” that’s still outpacing its competitors.
2. A Market Value of $10 Trillion: Fantasy or Possibility?
Wall Street’s discussions about an $10 trillion market value for Anthropic are not baseless:
- Changing Valuation Method: Previously, profits were the main factor in valuation; now, analysts use “future revenue multiplied by a multiple.” For example, if Anthropic achieves $200 billion in revenue by 2028 and is valued at a 50x price-to-sales ratio, its market value would be $10 trillion.
- Past Examples: Palantir’s current valuation is 53 times its expected 2026 revenue, and SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) valuation was as high as 94 times its revenue. A 50x multiple is not extreme.
- Historical Context: Apple’s market value surpassed $1 trillion in 2018, and NVIDIA has since reached $5.49 trillion. It only took seven years for the market value to increase from $1 trillion to $5 trillion; reaching $10 trillion might just be a matter of time.
Of course, this is an “ideal scenario.” If Anthropics fails to meet its revenue targets or if the market no longer assigns such high multiples, these figures could fall apart. But for now, this discussion is not entirely unfounded.
3. Who Makes More Money in the AI Industry: “Shovel Sellers” or “Gold Miners”?
The AI industry can be divided into two categories:
- Shovel Sellers: Companies that provide essential components (e.g., NVIDIA, which sells GPU chips). Since training and running AI models require GPUs, NVIDIA’s revenue has tripled in the past three years, and its market value has reached $5.49 trillion.
- Gold Miners: Companies that utilize these components to develop AI models (e.g., Anthropic). Comparing this to the PC era, Intel sold processors, while Microsoft provided operating systems; Microsoft’s revenue was lower than Intel’s, but its profits and valuation were higher.
The current logic suggests that companies selling essential components (like NVIDIA) can achieve significant valuations. Therefore, model companies that convert computing power into practical intelligence and productivity should be even more valuable. Anthropics’ CEO believes that AI technology will naturally concentrate in the hands of a few leading firms, as more advanced models require more resources and capital.
4. Capital Circulation: Everyone Is Betting on Anthropic’s Growth
Anthropic has become the center of the AI investment circle, with funds flowing towards it:
- Amazon’s Investment: Amazon has invested up to $250 billion in Anthropic and agreed to spend $100 billion over ten years to purchase AWS computing resources. This money flows out of Amazon and then returns through rent, as both parties anticipate that Anthropic will need more computing power in the future.
- NVIDIA’s Financial Strategy: NVIDIA has partnered with giants like Blackstone and Goldman Sachs to create a $500 billion financing platform to help data centers and cloud providers purchase GPUs. It has also guaranteed $105 billion for OpenAI’s data centers, signaling its support for the industry’s growth.
- Risks: Some investors warn that OpenAI and Anthropic represent potential vulnerabilities in AI investments; if either fails, the entire capital cycle could collapse, as many data centers and GPUs are built for these companies.
In essence, all the capital is focused on Anthropic. If it succeeds, everyone benefits; if it fails, many will suffer losses.
5. Why Could Anthropic Overtake OpenAI?
Anthropic’s faster growth rate is the key to its success:
- OpenAI’s annual revenue is around $40 billion, while Anthropic’s is $65 billion, a 60% lead.
- In just May and July alone, Anthropic’s additional revenue was nearly equivalent to OpenAI’s entire annual revenue for 2025.
Possible reasons include Anthropics’ more popular models (e.g., Claude) or its higher efficiency in commercialization. Regardless, it has become the most likely candidate to challenge a $10 trillion market value.
Final Conclusion
Anthropic’s story reflects the “god-making” phenomenon of the AI era: investors believe that AI will transform everything and that a few companies will emerge as superpowers. While a $10 trillion market value seems ambitious, it reflects the market’s extreme confidence in AI’s potential. However, all this is contingent on Anthropic’s sustained growth and the successful implementation of AI technology. If its growth slows or stronger competitors emerge, this vision might fade. For now, Anthropic is at the forefront of the AI revolution.