Summary of Key Points
The prices of new homes in Guangzhou have been rising month-on-month for the past five consecutive months, mainly due to the structural increase driven by the strong sales of high-quality projects. Some core areas and products with excellent features are selling very well, prompting developers to withdraw discounts or even raise prices. However, there is a clear differentiation in the market; not all properties are experiencing price increases, with most projects showing moderate price fluctuations. Although supply and transactions declined during the off-season in July, the average price remained stable or increased slightly. In the future, the overall trend is expected to be one of price stability, with high-quality properties in core areas continuing to perform well, while peripheral projects will still rely on discount promotions.
1. Why the Continuous Five-Month Rise?
The price increase is not across all properties; rather, it's the high-quality, well-selling units that are driving up the average price. For example, Poly Yunrui in Baiyun District sold 90% of its units at the launch at the end of June, generating revenue of 1.5 billion yuan, and in July, it became the leader in Guangzhou's online transaction rankings (first in terms of number of transactions, amount, and area), accounting for nearly 30% of the Baiyun District market. Poly Haiyun in Haizhu District also saw 68% of its units sold at the launch, and its online transactions led the district from July to August. These high-quality properties, with their favorable locations, complete amenities, and popular design, are attractive to buyers looking to upgrade their homes. The proportion of high-priced transactions has increased, naturally pushing up the overall average price.
2. Developers Starting to Withdraw Discounts or Raise Prices—Confidence is Improving
Previously, many projects offered discounts to sell their units. Now, however, hot-selling properties are starting to remove these discounts. For instance, Poly Yunrui withdrew its initial 98% discount; Yijingwan in Liwan saw a 3% increase in unit prices; Julongwan·Yuanshe saw an additional increase of 2,000 yuan per square meter when new units were released; Vanke Huangpu New City Phase IV raised its price from 22,000 yuan to 25,000 yuan per square meter (an increase of 2,500 yuan), yet it still managed to sell 90% of its units. Real estate agents report that many projects are removing discounts, especially those that comply with the latest design standards. However, it's also noted that most properties are still sold below their registered prices, though this is a more subtle form of price increase.
3. Clear Market Differentiation
Despite the overall average price rise, there is a significant difference among individual properties. Of the 340 properties that had transactions in July, 180 saw price declines, while 160 experienced price increases, with a difference of only 20 properties. Additionally, 62.9% of the properties had price fluctuations within 5%. In summary, high-quality properties in core areas are seeing price increases and continued strong sales, whereas less competitive properties in peripheral areas are either reducing prices or maintaining discounts. For example, projects in core areas like Huangpu New City are not struggling to sell, while some older properties in the suburbs may still be offering discounts.
4. July's Off-Sseason: Reduced Volume but Stable Prices
July is a traditional off-season for the real estate market, with developers launching fewer new properties. The supply area decreased by more than 30% month-on-month, and the number of transactions fell by over 40%. Although both the volume and number of transactions declined, the average transaction price increased to 34,700 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with the average unit price rising by 11.6%. This phenomenon is described as "reduced volume but stable prices"—fewer units were sold, but those that were sold were more expensive, resulting in no overall price decline.
5. Future Trend: Stability Expected, with Further Differentiation
Experts predict that most properties will maintain stable prices, and transaction volumes will gradually recover, but the differentiation between high-quality and less competitive projects will become more pronounced. High-quality properties in core areas (with good locations, complete amenities, and excellent design) are expected to continue to perform well and sell quickly. In contrast, peripheral projects without these advantages will still rely on discounts to attract buyers. There is no expectation of a widespread price increase, as the market has not yet fully heated up; only some high-quality properties are seeing initial signs of recovery.
In summary, the continuous five-month rise in new home prices in Guangzhou reflects a situation where "local areas are hot, while the overall market remains stable." High-quality properties are driving up the average price, and developers' confidence is improving slightly. However, most projects will continue to maintain stable prices, with significant differentiation between them. For potential buyers, high-quality properties in core areas are a good option, but there's no need to rush; peripheral properties offer more comparison options, and discounts may still be available.