Summary of Key Points
The current automotive industry is embroiled in a "race to speed": the number of new vehicle models (with various configurations) has increased threefold compared to smartphones and is close to that of the beverage industry. Development cycles have been reduced from 3-5 years for traditional fuel vehicles to just 2 years or less, with some companies launching multiple new models annually. This has sparked debate about whether these "fast-track" cars are treating consumers like guinea pigs—the real issue lies in whether the verification processes are comprehensive, not just the speed alone. While technological advancements (such as digital twins and decoupling software from hardware) can indeed improve efficiency, some companies cut corners by reducing actual road testing and skipping verification steps, leading to potential safety hazards. With stricter regulations now in place, the industry is shifting from a focus on speed to quality.
Why has the automotive industry become so fast?
The rapid development in the automotive industry is evident in two aspects:
1. Explosion in new models: The number of new vehicle models in China has reached 3,780, three times that of smartphones (1,240), and is on par with the entire beverage category (4,000). In the first half of 2026, 165 new models were introduced, nearly doubling compared to the same period in 2016 (less than 90).
2. Halved development cycles: While it used to take 5 years to develop a traditional fuel vehicle, new energy vehicles can now be developed in just 2 years.
Behind the rapid growth:
- Competitive pressure: The new energy market is highly competitive, and companies fear missing out on key trends (such as intelligent infotainment systems and autonomous driving), so they must respond quickly to consumer demands.
- Technological advancements: Technologies like digital twins (using computers to create virtual test vehicles), separate development of software and hardware (allowing for simultaneous updates without waiting for hardware to be ready), and modular platforms (enabling easy component replacements) have significantly improved efficiency.
The debate: Are "fast-track" cars treating consumers as guinea pigs?
The core issue is not so much the speed but whether steps in the development process are being skipped:
- Proponents (e.g., Landwind Lu Fang): As long as the verification processes are thorough, speed is a benefit; only those that cut corners can be considered "fast-track" cars.
- Opponents (e.g., Li Fenggang from Beijing Hyundai): Some companies skip design validation (DV) or production validation (PV) stages, using consumers as test drivers—for example, parts may go into production without thorough testing, leading to quality issues (such as abnormal door noises or battery failures).
Industry consensus: The development of a new car should take at least 2 years and involve various processes, including market research, design, clay modeling, and extensive road testing in different conditions. Any reduction in this time frame likely indicates that some steps have been omitted.
How do companies cut corners to shorten development cycles?
Companies often streamline the verification process:
1. Reducing real road testing: National standards require 30,000 kilometers of testing for fuel vehicles and 15,000 kilometers for new energy vehicles (soon to be increased to 30,000), but some companies only meet the minimum requirements or use simulation tests instead.
2. Skipping verification stages: Some brands conduct either DV or PV, resulting in inconsistent quality among units of the same model.
3. Lazy facelifts: For minor updates (e.g., changing the front end or screen), they may reuse existing test data from previous models, skipping necessary safety tests.
4. Insufficient sample vehicles: Proper testing requires multiple prototypes, but some companies use just one to determine if the hardware is qualified—what if that vehicle is an outlier?
The role of simulation testing:
Simulation testing (using computers to simulate real scenarios) can be highly efficient but can also be problematic if misused:
- Benefits: It can simulate extreme conditions and save costs by reducing the need for physical prototypes.
- Problems: There are no clear guidelines for the proportion of simulation vs. real testing, and some companies rely heavily on simulations, potentially leading to issues due to differences between computer-simulated and actual usage patterns.
Industry recommendations:
Simulation and real testing complement each other; neither can replace the other. For example, chassis durability must be tested in real-world conditions, as software updates (OTA) cannot fix underlying problems.
The industry's shift towards quality:
Regulators and companies are now emphasizing quality over speed:
- Regulatory changes: New safety standards have been introduced for door handles, battery safety, and autonomous driving.
- Company reflections: Leaders like Geely's Li Shufu acknowledge that skipping essential steps will affect product quality. McKinsey experts warn that necessary physical testing must be carried out thoroughly.
Future trends:
Speed remains important, but safety and quality are now the top priorities. Companies must balance efficiency with thorough verification processes, using technology to improve development times (e.g., conducting both summer tests in Chongqing and winter tests in New Zealand).
In conclusion:
The automotive industry can be fast, but it must not be reckless. Cars developed through shortcuts will likely fail to meet consumer expectations, while those that follow comprehensive verification processes will thrive.