Summary of Key Points
Yushu’s listing has become a major topic in the financial community: On its first day, its market value soared to 440 billion yuan (closing at 341.8 billion yuan), far exceeding market expectations and causing early investors to celebrate wildly. However, on the same day, the Robot ETF and the GEM index both plummeted by 7.9% and 6.3%, respectively. The embodied intelligence industry has adopted a counterintuitive approach, where projects’ valuations double simply by achieving certain milestones such as forming teams or building test platforms, without considering their business models. While the author congratulates Yushu, she also expresses concerns about the potential bubble in this madness and points out some peculiar phenomena within the industry (such as investors regretting not buying new shares or reminiscing about missed opportunities).
1. Yushu’s Listing: A Market Value That Surpasses Industry Giants
Yushu’s market value has surpassed everyone’s expectations, with a closing price of 341.8 billion yuan—more than twice the estimated annual net profit of 6 billion yuan for Inovance Technology, a leading industrial robotics company (with a market value of around 150 billion yuan). The reason for this surge is that Yushu has tapped into the emerging trend of “embodied intelligence” (robots that can move like humans), which the market sees as having great potential in the future.
Early investors were overjoyed, sharing chat records and photos with the founders, emphasizing that they invested early (those who invested later felt too embarrassed to show off their investments). However, there were some setbacks: Some investors who won the shares chose not to buy them, fearing the new shares might fall in value, now probably regretting their decision, as this was a golden opportunity.
2. The Robot Sector’s Sharp Decline: Not Related to Yushu, but Due to broader Market Forces
On the day of Yushu’s listing, the Robot ETF dropped by 7.9%, and the GEM index fell by 6.3%. Many assumed this was because Yushu had drawn away market funds, but that’s not the case. The main reasons include:
- Rising U.S. Treasury Bond Rates: As interest rates on U.S. bonds increased, investors considered bonds a safer investment and pulled their money out of the stock market.
- Slowing Growth in AI Companies: Media reports indicated that Anthropic, a company on par with OpenAI, had slowed its growth, leading to some skepticism about the AI industry.
- U.S.-Iran Conflict: The unstable international situation made investors wary of taking risks and led them to withdraw from risky assets.
These factors combined to cause the overall sector to decline, with little direct impact from Yushu itself.
3. The Embodied Intelligence Industry: Focusing on Milestones Rather than Business Models
The current approach in this industry is quite counterintuitive: Projects don’t need to consider whether they will be profitable; as long as they achieve certain milestones (such as forming a team or building a test platform), their valuations can double. When asked about the business model, companies often reply, “Even leading companies don’t have clear business models; they’re planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. We just need to follow the plan.”
It’s even more extreme that investors are reluctant to ask about commercialization progress; asking such questions may result in them being dismissed, and some companies refuse even basic due diligence. It’s like everyone is betting on a future outcome, hoping to secure a position regardless of current profitability.
4. The Author’s Concerns: A Possible Post-Festivity Chaos
While congratulating Yushu, the author also raises concerns:
- Bubble Risk: Current valuations are excessively high. Even if humanoid robots become widely available, only a few companies will survive, and their peak market values might represent just a brief highlight.
- Competitive Landscape: The STAR Market may not accommodate many such companies; those that go to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange could face different fates.
- Capital Concentration: A large amount of capital is flowing towards top-tier projects and institutions, making it difficult for less established companies to thrive.
- Social Responsibility: She hopes leading companies will take on more social responsibilities beyond just making profits.
She also points out some absurdities in the industry, such as claims that Yushu has boosted real estate prices in Hangzhou, when in fact, only 14 employees received stock incentives, and 171 employees bought shares at their own expense (which are still not tradable), leaving them unable to afford luxury homes. Additionally, investors who reminisce about missed opportunities are actually just lucky; there’s nothing to boast about.
5. A Side Note: Why Was Wang Leehong at Yushu’s Celebration?
The night before the listing, Yushu held a celebration at the Shangri-La in Pudong, and Wang Leehong was there. This is because one of his companies, “Superstar Legend,” has formed a joint venture with Yushu—it seems that even celebrities want to capitalize on the embodied intelligence trend.
In summary, this article discusses both the excitement surrounding Yushu’s listing and the madness and risks within the industry, highlighting that the current AI hardware/embodied intelligence sector is more like a “gamble on the future” with significant opportunities but also considerable potential for bubbles.