Summary of Key Points
The overall sales volume of the Chinese smart projection market has been declining (a 13.9% year-on-year decrease in 2025), but high-end products priced over 10,000 yuan have seen a reversal in trend, doubling in sales. The previous rationale for the growth of projections—“low-cost, large screens replacing televisions”—is no longer valid. This is because the prices of large-screen TVs have continued to drop, narrowing the price gap with projections. Additionally, the inconvenience of projection devices, such as shading and adjustment, has become more prominent. There are two issues with product upgrades: low-end products with inflated specifications affect user experience, while high-end upgrades do not attract new customers. Companies are exploring new use cases such as gaming, outdoor activities, and in-vehicle applications, but the new growth directions are not yet clear. The future market will be more fragmented, and projections will need to appeal to consumers based on their “practical value in specific scenarios” rather than simply replacing televisions.
Detailed Analysis
1. Fewer Projections Sold, But Higher-End Products Are More Popular
In 2025, the total sales volume of smart projections across all channels was 5.2 million units, a 13.9% decrease from the previous year. However, the online sales of high-end products priced over 10,000 yuan doubled. Why is this?
- Cooling Down in the Mass Market: In the past, people bought projections because they offered “large screens at low prices”—for a few thousand yuan, you could get a 100-inch screen, which was much cheaper than a TV of the same size. Now, large-screen TVs have become more affordable; for example, a 75-inch Mini LED TV can be purchased for just 2,799 yuan after subsidies, similar to the price range of mid-to-high-end projections (2,500-3,500 yuan), eliminating the price advantage of projections.
- High-End Market Shows Interest: Users who spend over 10,000 yuan on projections are looking for a “home theater experience” rather than a simple replacement for televisions. They are willing to invest in additional features such as screens and shading systems, and as long as the movie viewing experience is large, high-quality, and immersive, it’s worth it. Additionally, government subsidies in 2025 lowered the entry barrier for high-end products, prompting brands to launch new models in this price range. Nevertheless, the high-end market remains niche, with only a 0.9% online share in the third quarter of 2025—this doubling reflects rapid expansion within this segment, not a shift towards the mainstream market.
2. The Old Story of “Low-Cost, Large-Screen Replacing Televisions” No Longer Holds
The core selling point of projections was “getting a larger screen for less money,” but this logic no longer applies:
- Price Gap Narrowing: Previously, you could buy a 100-inch projection for 5,000 yuan, but not a good 55-inch TV for the same price. Now, a 75-inch TV costs just over 2,000 yuan, overlapping with the price range of projections. Consumers compare the options: TVs are ready to use immediately, do not reflect light during the day, and require no adjustment; projections, on the other hand, require curtains, focusing, and calibration, making them more troublesome.
- Changing Viewing Habits: People now watch more short videos and micro-series, spending an average of 129 minutes a day on these, which is longer than watching long videos. The need for large screens for such content has decreased, reducing the appeal of projections.
3. Product Upgrades Hit Two Major Problems
Manufacturers are trying to revive the market by upgrading products, but they have misjudged consumer needs:
- Issue 1: Inflated Specifications in Low-End Products Damage Reputation: Many entry-level projections (200-1900 yuan) have misleading specifications. For example, a test by the Tianjin Consumers Association showed that only one out of 20 products met the brightness standards (80% or more), with the rest being too dim or noisy. First-time users who experience these issues may think the product is poor in quality and lose trust in the entire category.
- Issue 2: Upgrades Do Not Attract New Customers: High-end projections have improved in brightness, image quality, and auto-calibration, but these improvements only benefit existing users, not those who already own televisions or do not need additional display devices. For instance, if you already have a 75-inch TV, a better projection won’t motivate you to buy another one.
4. Exploring New Use Cases
Companies are exploring new use cases for projections:
- Gaming Projections: Nut has launched high-refresh-rate (4K 120Hz) projections targeting gaming enthusiasts, offering a smoother gaming experience.
- Outdoor Projections: Vidda’s outdoor projections come with built-in 20,000mAh batteries, allowing them to operate without power and featuring optical zoom for easy adjustment in camping scenarios.
- In-Vehicle Projections: Companies like JIMI have collaborated with automakers like Xpeng and ARCFOX to integrate projections into car cockpits. This segment has seen rapid growth (107% in 2025), but the gross profit margin is only 4.45% due to high initial costs.
While these new use cases are gaining traction, they have not yet become mainstream. For example, in-vehicle projections are still in the early stages of adoption, and outdoor projections remain niche.
5. The Future: Focusing on “Scenario Value” Rather than “Replacing Televisions”
The next round of growth for projections will depend on demonstrating their practical value in specific scenarios, rather than trying to appeal to the general public with a single, all-purpose product:
- No Unified Reason for Purchase: In the future, people may buy projections for gaming, camping, or in-vehicle entertainment. Each scenario will have its own unique needs, leading to a more fragmented market.
- The Key is to Transform Features into Practical Benefits: Projections’ strengths—large screens, flexibility, and on-demand functionality—must be translated into concrete advantages in specific use cases. For example, high refresh rates are essential for gaming, portability is crucial for outdoor activities, and integration into car cockpits is important for in-vehicle entertainment. As long as the experience in these scenarios is reliable and convenient, consumers will be willing to pay.
In Summary
Projections can no longer rely on being cheaper than televisions to thrive; they need to establish their uniqueness in specific use cases. Whether it’s the immersive experience of a high-end home theater, the smoothness of gaming, or the portability of outdoor applications, projections must demonstrate their irreplaceable value to attract consumers.