虎嗅

From annual revenues in the millions to 7,000 stores closing in a single year, why is no one interested in eating “Niúwā” (a brand of fast-food chain)?

原文:从年入上百万,到一年关店7000家,牛蛙为啥没人吃了?

Summary of Key Points

The bullfrog was once a sensation in the food industry, with popular restaurants attracting two-hour queues and generating annual revenues in the millions. Nationwide, 1.7 billion bullfrogs were sold each year. However, in the past year, more than 7,000 stores have closed, marking a sharp decline in its popularity. The reasons include an oversupply due to excessive breeding, a surge of new food trends, and young consumers shifting their preferences towards something new.

Detailed Analysis

1. How Popular Was the Bullfrog? – The “Golden Age” of Internet-Famous Food

The bullfrog was truly popular back then:

  • Long Queues: Restaurants featuring bullfrogs were always packed with customers waiting for hours to try the food; some people even traveled from other cities just to dine there.
  • Profitable Businesses: With the right location, businesses could earn millions a year. For example, a chain of bullfrog restaurants had monthly sales of up to 300,000 yuan, with a net profit of around 100,000 yuan after expenses.
  • Nationwide Demand: 1.7 billion bullfrogs sold annually meant that each Chinese person consumed about 1.2 bullfrogs per year. Breeding farms expanded from the south to the north, even reaching rural areas.

At that time, bullfrogs were as popular as Zibo barbecue today, becoming a must-try item on many dining lists. Whether spicy, garlic-flavored, or pickled with chili, they attracted young consumers.

2. Why the Sudden Decline? – Overupply Damaged the Market

The main reason for the decline was an oversupply:

  • Mass Breeding: Seeing the potential profits, many people started breeding bullfrogs. In 2021, the national breeding area more than doubled compared to 2019.
  • Price Drop: The wholesale price of bullfrogs plummeted from around 15 yuan per pound to 5–6 yuan per pound, with some even going unsold and being discarded.
  • Businesses Struggling to Survive: Despite the lower prices, rent and labor costs remained high. Many stores couldn't cover their expenses and had to close.

In short, too many people tried to profit from the bullfrog trend, leading to a situation where the supply far exceeded demand.

3. Young Consumers Change Their Preferences – New Trends Take Center Stage

Young consumers are the driving force in the food industry, and bullfrogs lost their appeal due to a lack of novelty:

  • Constant Innovation: The food industry is highly competitive, with new trends emerging every day (hot pot tea, Thai street food, light meals, etc.).
  • Bullfrogs Become Boring: The traditional methods of preparing bullfrogs (spicy, garlic-flavored, dry pot) became repetitive after a while, and consumers preferred trying new, internet-famous dishes.
  • Loss of Appeal: Posting about long queues at bullfrog restaurants no longer garnered attention; young people want something unique.

Just like eating the same dish every day, it becomes boring quickly, especially when there are so many new options available.

4. The Fate of Bullfrogs – A Common Problem for Internet-Famous Foods

Bullfrogs are not the first nor the last internet-famous food trend to experience a decline:

  • Dependent on Traffic: Many such restaurants rely on online popularity but lack unique recipes or services, making them vulnerable to market changes.
  • Short Lifespan: Internet-famous foods typically only remain popular for 1–2 years before fading away, like the dirty bun, answer tea, and instant noodle cafes.

In conclusion, the rise and fall of bullfrogs reflect a broader issue in the internet-famous food trend: without solid foundations (tasty food, good value, unique features), businesses cannot sustain their success in the long run.

In One Sentence

The story of bullfrogs illustrates the volatility of the internet-famous food phenomenon. Only those that truly meet consumer needs can thrive in the short-term popularity waves of the industry.