虎嗅

Why Can't India's High-Speed Rail Project Still Be Completed, Despite Japanese Funding?

原文:日本出钱,印度高铁为何仍修不动?

Summary of Key Points

The Indian government indeed has a strong desire to build high-speed railways, hoping to alleviate traffic congestion and enhance the country's image. However, due to practical obstacles such as difficulties in land acquisition, funding shortages, lack of technical expertise, and mismatch with public demand, the progress of these projects has been exceptionally slow, creating a seemingly impossible situation where the desire to build high-speed railways is hindered by practical challenges.

Detailed Analysis

1. India's Initial Motivation for Building High-Speed Railways: Both Practical Benefits and Prestige

With a population of over 1.4 billion, India faces significant transportation issues, especially between major cities. Ordinary trains are slow and overcrowded (for example, the journey from Mumbai to Ahmedabad takes about 8 hours). High-speed railways could significantly reduce travel time (to around 2 hours), addressing these practical needs. Additionally, high-speed railways are considered a symbol of a developed nation, and India wants to use them to demonstrate its level of progress to the world. The Mumbai-Ahmedabad high-speed railway, a project in collaboration with Japan, is seen as a national showcase.

2. The Biggest Barrier: Land Acquisition, More Difficult than Climbing to the Sky

Most of India's land is privately owned, and acquiring it for high-speed railway construction requires purchasing from farmers. The problem is that farmers often feel the compensation offered by the government is too low (for instance, a few tens of thousands of rupees per acre, which is insufficient for rebuilding their homes) or are reluctant to part with their ancestral land. The Mumbai high-speed railway project required the acquisition of more than 1,400 hectares of land, and after several years, less than half of the land has been acquired, delaying the entire project. Constant disputes with farmers, along with protests, have severely hindered progress.

3. Financial Strains: The Burden of Loans

Building high-speed railways is extremely costly. The total budget for the Mumbai high-speed railway was approximately 18 billion US dollars, and India could not afford it on its own, so it had to seek loans from Japan (which provided 15 billion US dollars at an interest rate of 0.1% over a 50-year period). However, the loans must be repaid, and India will be burdened with this debt for decades to come. Moreover, even if the railways are built, there is no guarantee that they will be profitable; if there are few passengers, the interest payments could become a significant financial burden for the country.

4. Technical Challenges: Starting from Scratch

India has no prior experience with high-speed railways, so it relies entirely on Japanese expertise for everything from track laying to signal system installation and train maintenance. Even train drivers must be trained in Japan. High-speed railways require stable electricity supply (which is often unreliable in India) and precise scheduling (which is a common issue with ordinary trains). India's existing railway network is also in disarray, making it extremely difficult to integrate high-speed railway systems.

5. Public Acceptance: High-Speed Railways May Be Unpopular

Ordinary Indians are accustomed to inexpensive train fares (a few rupees per ticket), while high-speed railway tickets could cost 5 to 10 times more. For most Indians with monthly incomes of a few thousand rupees (a few hundred yuan), high-speed railways are too expensive. Even if they are built, only a small portion of the population with higher incomes would use them, leading to low occupancy rates and operational losses, creating an awkward situation where the railways can be built but not sustained financially.

In summary, India's intention to build high-speed railways is positive, but there are too many practical difficulties. It's like trying to run but having one's feet tied—India truly wants to build these railways, but the challenges make it extremely difficult to achieve.