Summary of Key Points
After Yushu Technology, the "first stock in the humanoid robotics sector," made its debut on the STAR Market, its stock price soared to 1,100 yuan on the first day (with a market value of 444.9 billion yuan), only to subsequently decline continuously. Within four trading days, the market value evaporated by over 200 billion yuan, and it is now at 243.9 billion yuan. The high valuation is essentially an "illusion of liquidity," with a reasonable valuation range of 60-150 billion yuan. Yushu also serves as the "pricing benchmark" for the entire humanoid robotics industry. Many unprofitable companies in the primary market have their valuations set based on Yushu's post-listing market value. If Yushu's valuation continues to fall, the primary market bubble could burst, leading to financing and exit challenges for these companies.
1. First-Day Market Value of 444.9 Billion Yuan: Not a Valuation, but an "Illusion of Circulating Shares"
At the beginning of its listing, only 7.44% of Yushu's total shares were available for trading (about 30.08 million shares). Coupled with the fact that there were no price limits for the first five days of trading, a small amount of capital was enough to drive up the price significantly—this is like pricing an entire cold storage facility based on the price of just one basket of vegetables in a market.
The daily turnover rate on the first day was as high as 85%, meaning all the circulating shares were traded within a single day. Large institutional and retail investors netted a total of 4.4 billion yuan, while institutional investors who had profit from new share offerings netted out 4.4 billion yuan (from both large and medium-sized trades). In essence, institutions were selling high-priced shares to retail investors, and the 444.9 billion yuan market value was created by sentiment and scarcity, not by real value.
2. Secondary Market Valuation: Excessively High
Yushu is essentially a manufacturing company (with 73% of its revenue coming from research and education clients), and its robots should be evaluated using manufacturing industry standards:
- PE Ratio Comparison: Yushu's static PE ratio is 877, compared to 25 for CATL (the global leader in batteries) and 31 for Inovance Technology (a leader in industrial control), indicating a difference of several dozen times.
- Market Value Comparison: Yushu's current market value of 243.9 billion yuan is equivalent to 7.6 times that of CoWoS (with annual revenue of 19 billion yuan, 11 times that of Yushu) or nearly 80% of Hikvision (with annual revenue of 92.5 billion yuan, 50 times that of Yushu).
- Reasonable Range: Even assuming a conservative forecast of 700 million yuan in net profit by 2026, a PE ratio of 60-80 would result in a market value of only 42-560 billion yuan, which is close to its issue price of 600 billion yuan. Considering growth potential and large model expectations, the maximum market value would be around 150 billion yuan. The current 243.9 billion yuan still represents a 60% premium, indicating that the bubble has not yet burst.
3. Yushu as a "Pricing Benchmark" for the Primary Market
Yushu's last round of financing had a valuation of only 12.7 billion yuan, but the primary market now expects its market value to be between 300-400 billion yuan after listing. Eight domestic robotics companies that produce only a few hundred units each have valuations of 20 billion yuan (for example, Galaxy General raised 7 billion yuan, and Zhi Ping Fang raised funds 12 times in a year). Their logic is, "If Yushu can sell 5,500 units for 30 billion yuan, then I can sell 100 units for 20 billion yuan." If Yushu's market value falls to 100 billion yuan, these companies' valuations will become unsustainable, and no one will be willing to invest in their next rounds of financing. Additionally, many funds entered the market in 2021-2022 with exit clauses; if they cannot raise the required funds, these companies may face financial crises.
4. When Will the Drop Be Considered Adequate? Secondary Market Signals, Primary Market: "Escape Window"
- Reasonable Range for the Secondary Market: 600-150 billion yuan (corresponding to stock prices of 150-370 yuan). The current price of 603 yuan still has significant room for decline. Four key indicators need to be monitored:
1. The release of restricted shares (which could cause a market drop).
2. The proportion of revenue from industrial applications (robots will be more valuable if they are used in productive contexts).
3. Gross profit margins after price cuts (whether price reductions affect profitability).
4. Breakthroughs in large models (whether the "ChatGPT moment" for humanoid robots has arrived).
- Primary Market: Escape Window: The next 6-12 months are critical. Companies that list or acquire Yushu before its valuation hits bottom can ride the bubble, while those that wait may see their valuations plummet (for example, from 20 billion yuan to 2 billion yuan).
Conclusion
Yushu's stock price fluctuations are not isolated; they reflect the overall health of the humanoid robotics industry. Secondary market investors should be wary of bubbles, while entrepreneurs and investors in the primary market should seize the opportunity to exit. The 440 billion yuan in market value created by Yushu's debut is not just about its stock price but also a countdown to potential market corrections in the primary market.