Summary of Key Points
Putin's first visit to the Southern Kuril Islands (referred to by Japan as the "Northern Four Islands") involved a series of routine activities such as visiting factories, schools, and hospitals. Through these seemingly casual gestures, he sent a strong signal: Russia considers the islands to be under its de facto control, effectively ending the territorial dispute with Japan from Russia's perspective. This move serves several purposes. It is a response to the militaristic tendencies and hostile policies of Japan's government under Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, as well as a demonstration of Russia's strategic stance in the Pacific region. It also reflects the decline of U.S. hegemony in Northeast Asia and the growing influence of countries like China and Russia.
1. Putin's "Casual Approach" as a Statement of Territorial Sovereignty
Putin's visit was not just a casual trip; it was a political statement conveyed through everyday details:
- Economic Presence: Tasting local caviar indicated that Russia has economic activities in the area, proving it is not an uninhabited region.
- Social Integration: Inspecting schools and hospitals and interacting with teenage students whose parents or grandparents have lived there shows that Russian control extends deep into the local community.
- Relaxed Tone: Describing the islands as a "resort" implies, "This is our territory; there's nothing sensitive about it."
This approach is more persuasive than a harsh declaration, as it shows that "my people, my businesses, and my public services are here. Even the president has come—what more dispute can there be?"
2. Changing Russian-Japanese Relations: From Negotiation to Direct Confrontation
In the past, Putin maintained a more accommodating attitude towards Japan, possibly due to his fondness for judo. However, his current stance has changed significantly for two reasons:
- Japan's Hostile Actions: Japan's latest national security strategy identifies Russia as a major threat and continues to support Ukraine.
- Legal and Historical Context: According to the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Proclamation, Japan's sovereignty only extends to the main islands of Honshu and Hokkaido; the Southern Kuril Islands are not part of this territory. Russia has occupied them since World War II and continues to control them, which is also recognized on Chinese maps.
Putin's visit signals, "We were polite before, but now you've crossed the line—there's no need for further discussion."
3. Targeting Yoshihide Suga: Shattering Japan's "Militaristic Delusions"
Since Suga took office, Japan's defense budget has soared to a record 10.6 trillion yen, and there have been attempts to downplay World War II atrocities (such as the annual visits to the Yasukuni Shrine). Putin's visit around August 15th was a deliberate blow to Japan's reputation:
- Reminding Japan of Its Defeat: "Your ancestors lost the war; these islands are a result of that conflict—don't try to change the facts."
- Disrupting Japan's Military Expansion Plans: If Japan wants to increase its military spending under the pretext of a Russian threat, Putin's actions show that Russia will respond to provocation.
Tang Xianglong commented, "Suga's reaction to the Yasukuni Shrine was much less intense, indicating that Putin hit a sore spot."
4. Setting a Red Line for the United States: The Pacific Is Not Exclusive to the U.S.
The U.S. has long tried to use Japan as a pawn in Northeast Asia, but its own capabilities have weakened (problems with aircraft carrier toilets, sailors jumping into the sea, and poor performance in the Iran war). Putin's visit also mentioned the use of a "shadow fleet" to counter interference:
- Shadow Fleet: Russia uses ships flying the third flag to transport energy, and the West interferes with these shipments. Putin warns, "If you interfere with my ships in the Caspian Sea, I will interfere with yours in the Pacific."
- Pacific Fleet Display: By showing off its military presence in the Pacific, Russia signals to the U.S., "Don't think the Pacific is just your backyard; I have the capability to respond."
The U.S.'s silence during Putin's visit indicates its inability to maintain its dominance in Northeast Asia.
5. The Changing Landscape of Northeast Asia: Decline of U.S. Hegemony and Multipolarity
Events like the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, and the 2026 U.S.-Iran war have exposed the weaknesses of the U.S., Russia, and India. China's supply chain (e.g., drone components) and military equipment (such as the J-10C fighter jet) have played a crucial role. Putin's visit reflects a shift in the regional power balance:
- The U.S. is no longer the undisputed authority in Northeast Asia.
- Russia uses its strength to uphold the post-War order.
- Japan, relying on the U.S., tries to pursue militarism, but its support has weakened.
In conclusion, Putin's visit to the Kuril Islands was not incidental; it was a direct response to Japan's provocations and a challenge to U.S. hegemony. It marks the end of the territorial dispute from Russia's perspective and signifies profound changes in the regional landscape, with an old order collapsing and a new balance emerging.