Summary of Key Points
The smart bathroom market has become highly competitive: on one hand, the penetration rate of smart toilets in China is less than 10% (even lower in rural areas), and demand is declining; on the other hand, home appliance giants (such as Xiaomi and Haier) are entering the market, as well as traditional bathroom brands (such as Jiumu and Arrow). There are over 30,000 companies in this industry. The reason for this is that the home appliance markets in living rooms and kitchens have become saturated, making the bathroom the last “blue ocean” for smart home development. However, the fierce competition has led to price wars, resulting in significant declines in corporate profits. Both traditional brands and cross-industry players have their weaknesses, and their temporary collaborations often hide underlying strategic ambitions. Health monitoring features (such as urine analysis in toilets) have become new selling points, but the technology is not yet mature, and these features are more about creating a narrative to justify higher prices.
Detailed Analysis
1. Why are home appliance giants entering the bathroom market?
The markets for living rooms and kitchens have reached their limits:
- Living rooms: Sales of smart TVs and projectors are declining; smart projector sales are expected to drop by 18% by 2025, and TV sales by 16%, with almost no growth in the overall smart home device market.
- Kitchens: Sales of major household appliances (such as refrigerators and washing machines) have peaked in 2024, and it is difficult to see further growth in the future.
The bathroom, with a smart toilet penetration rate of only around 10%, represents a new opportunity. Following industry trends, market growth typically accelerates once penetration reaches 10% (similar to what happened with TVs and refrigerators). Additionally, as smart bathroom products have evolved from construction materials to consumer electronics, home appliance companies have the necessary technology and supply chain advantages, driving their entry into this market.
2. Why is demand declining despite increased competition?
Despite the fact that demand for smart toilets will be 4 million units lower than production by 2025, companies are still investing heavily:
- Fierce price wars: The average price of smart toilets is expected to drop from 2,512 yuan in 2025 to below 2,500 yuan in 2026. Arrow’s sales increased by 5%, but revenue decreased by 3%; Jiumu’s gross margin dropped from 38% to 31%.
- Overcrowding by cross-industry players: Home appliance companies like Xiaomi and Haier have seen a 12% increase in market share, and manufacturers of bathroom components (such as Ruite) are also launching their own brands. The relaxation of 3C certifications has made it easier for them to enter the market, turning the industry into a highly competitive one.
- Consequences: The total profits of six publicly traded bathroom companies decreased by 66% in 2025, from 1.19 billion yuan to 400 million yuan.
3. Traditional bathroom brands vs. home appliance giants: Both have strengths, but lack comprehensiveness
Each side has its advantages, but none are perfect:
- Traditional brands: Jiumu and Arrow have gained 8% in the high-end market (above 5,000 yuan) and have strong capabilities in manufacturing (ceramics, hardware), as well as distribution channels. However, their R&D investment is low (3%-5%), and their smart technology lags behind that of home appliance companies (e.g., Xiaomi’s chips are 30% faster in response time). They also face quality and after-sales issues (e.g., thousands of complaints about Jiumu products).
- Home appliance giants: Xiaomi and Haier have smart ecosystems (e.g., Mi Home, HarmonyOS) and advanced chip and sensor technology, but they struggle in the high-end market due to the complexity of the bathroom environment, which involves multiple technologies (water, electricity, ceramics, etc.).
- Temporary collaborations: Partnerships between Arrow and HarmonyOS, or Jiumu and Haier, are essentially mutual leveraging—traditional brands seek smart technology, while home appliance companies want access to bathroom manufacturing expertise. However, these are temporary arrangements; once home appliance giants master the necessary skills, they may move on independently.
4. Can toilets diagnose health issues?
Health monitoring is a popular new feature, but the technology is not yet mature:
- Trends: 83% of consumers are willing to pay for health-related technologies, and the smart toilet market is expected to grow to 36.1 billion dollars by 2035 (at a 50% annual rate). Jiumu has partnered with Huaxi Biology to develop health-related bathroom products, and TOTO uses AI to enable toilets to “diagnose” health issues.
- Challenges: The technology is not yet reliable; for example, urine analysis requires a specific type of urine sample, which is difficult to achieve with current smart toilet technology. Many health monitoring features are more about creating a premium image than providing practical benefits.
- Reality: Health is a common goal for smart homes, but few companies have successfully implemented practical solutions.
Conclusion
The smart bathroom market holds significant potential, but the current competitive landscape, price wars, and technological shortcomings are making it challenging for companies to thrive. In the future, success will likely come from either traditional brands developing smart technology, home appliance giants mastering bathroom manufacturing, or someone truly making health monitoring features viable. Otherwise, this may just be another example of intense market competition with little real innovation.