Summary of Key Points
September this year will be the most competitive month in the smartphone industry: six leading manufacturers, including Apple, Huawei, and Xiaomi, will all release their flagship new models. Foldable screens will for the first time become a central focus of the competition (with Apple's first foldable iPhone, Xiaomi's new large-foldable phone, and Huawei's new triple-foldable phone all debuting). AI is no longer just a decorative feature at launch events; it has become a fundamental component that can actually perform useful tasks within the system. At the same time, phone prices are likely to increase due to high research and development costs, rising component prices, and increased competitive pressure. Manufacturers are subtly raising prices by segmenting their product lines and adjusting storage options.
1. Foldable Screens Become the Absolute Stars of September: Three Manufacturers Show Three New Innovations
This September, foldable screens are no longer just experimental products for a few manufacturers; they have become a battleground for the top players, with each offering unique innovations:
- Xiaomi 18 Fold: Features a large-foldable design and a self-developed chip. Xiaomi has abandoned the previous slim-fold design in favor of a larger-foldable model that resembles a small tablet when unfolded, with a better aspect ratio for horizontal use. It also introduces its own Xuanjie O3 chip (3-nanometer process) for enhanced performance. This phone combines Xiaomi's three core strengths—self-developed chips, AI systems, and new hardware designs—making it Xiaomi's most important flagship of the year.
- Apple Foldable iPhone Ultra: Apple's first foldable phone, which shares similarities with the Pro series. It also has a large-foldable design (5.5-inch outer screen and 7.8-inch inner screen) and aims for thinness (only 4.5mm when unfolded). To achieve this, Face ID has been replaced by Touch ID on the side. The price is expected to exceed $2000 (about 15,000 RMB), with the higher-capacity version possibly reaching $2500, making it one of the most expensive foldable phones available.
- Huawei Mate XT2: Huawei has redefined the triple-foldable design. The previous model had a Z-shaped fold, but this new version features a U-shaped fold where the side screens fold inward, completely concealing the main screen and preventing scratches. It comes with the HarmonyOS 7 system, potentially offering more flexible multi-screen interactions.
The simultaneous emergence of these three foldable designs represents the most concentrated innovation in the seven years since the introduction of foldable screens.
2. AI Moves from a Fancy Feature to a System-Level Tool: Finally Useful for Real Tasks
In the past, smartphone AI was limited to tasks like photo editing and voice-to-text conversion. This September, new phones integrate AI directly into the system to perform practical tasks:
- Xiaomi Pengpai OS4: The Super Xiaoai 2.0 AI platform, based on large models, can help with tasks like booking flights and taxis, organizing photos, and creating PPTs. The "Inspiration Ball" feature can read screen content and perform actions such as navigating to addresses, finding similar products, and editing photos without the need to manually open apps.
- Honor Magic9: The new YOYO assistant can handle software tasks and integrate with hardware (such as the camera) to recognize scenarios. For example, it can automatically convert documents into text or adjust screen brightness and sound quality based on the environment.
- Nubia Poco Phone: The new generation of Poco phones allows the AI to directly operate apps, similar to a human assistant. However, there are still permission issues with certain apps like WeChat. The new version uses an "app-open interface," allowing the AI to directly invoke functions (such as automatically booking tickets or checking package deliveries), making it more practical.
AI is no longer just for showing off; it has become a smart assistant that saves users time.
3. Flagship Phones Are Getting More Premium: More Diverse Models in Different Price Segments
Manufacturers are no longer satisfied with just a "standard" and a "Pro" version; they are targeting higher-end markets:
- Apple: The autumn launch will feature only premium models—Pro, Pro Max, and the foldable Ultra. The regular iPhone 18 has been postponed to next spring, with resources focused on the more expensive models.
- Chinese Manufacturers: They are adding "Max" and "Ultra" versions to compete in the premium segment. For example, the vivo X500 series includes a Pro Max model with a 2K screen, Dimensity 9600 chip, and a 200-megapixel telephoto lens; the Honor Magic9 uses a 2nm Snapdragon chip and the Alight Imaging System; the OPPO Find X10 series also has a Pro Max version. These models are more expensive, targeting users willing to pay a higher price.
The reason for this segmentation is to capture higher profits. With overall market shipments expected to decline (Counterpoint predicts a 14.3% decrease globally in 2026), manufacturers need to rely on premium models to generate more revenue.
4. Are Phone Prices Going Up? Reasons and the Hidden Ways They Raise Prices
There are three main reasons for the expected price increase in new phones this year:
1. High Research and Development Costs: Foldable screens, AI systems, and self-developed chips require significant investment (for example, the development cycle of Xiaomi's Xuanjie O3 chip was long, with high trial-and-error costs).
2. Rising Component Prices: The cost of memory, chips, and other components continues to increase (Xiaomi's second-quarter financial report shows a 26% increase in average phone prices, partly due to rising component costs; Apple's Pro models may see a 38% increase in material costs).
3. Increased Competitive Pressure: Manufacturers cannot afford to miss out on the September launch competition and must raise prices to cover their costs.
However, manufacturers don't raise prices directly; they use clever tactics to make the increase less noticeable:
- Adding Storage Options: They offer various storage combinations (e.g., 12GB+256GB, 16GB+512GB) to push up the prices of the most popular mid-to-high-end models.
- Segmenting Product Lines: By creating models like Pro, Max, and Ultra, they keep the lowest starting prices the same, but the models you want (with sufficient storage) are actually more expensive.
- Slow Decline in Prices of Previous Generations: New models are not significantly discounted, encouraging consumers to buy the latest versions.
This price increase is likely a long-term trend. AI requires more memory and processing power, and as chips move to 2nm, costs will continue to rise, making phones more expensive in the future.
Final Thought: Should You Wait to Buy a Phone in September?
If you're interested in foldable screens or phones with advanced AI features, September is definitely worth waiting for (especially models like the Xiaomi 18 Fold, Apple Foldable Ultra, and Huawei Mate XT2). If you just want a regular smartphone, you might need to consider the price, as the "value for money" of this year's new models might not be as good as before. You could also wait a few months to see if prices drop.
In summary, the smartphone market in September will be exciting but more expensive, marking a period of rapid technological innovation and an increase in consumer spending.