Summary of Key Points
The US-Iran war has not changed Russia's strategic thinking; rather, it has reinforced four key perceptions since Putin came to power: the Western "rule-based order" is collapsing, the United States has become more powerful and unpredictable, the frequent use of "decapitation" tactics by the US could lead to nuclear proliferation, diplomatic mediation has failed between the US and Iran, making Russia more indifferent to US diplomacy, and non-Western powers (especially Russia and Iran) are moving towards closer cooperation due to shared sanctions.
1. Does the Western "rule-based order" really no longer work? The US now simply acts with brute force
In the past, the US would put on a show of following United Nations procedures before launching military actions—such as in Somalia (1992), Haiti (1994), and Libya (2011). Even in Kosovo (1999) and Iraq (2003), it would try to find justifications. However, in the US-Iran war, Trump did not even consult the UN, and aside from Israel, no allies spoke out in support of the attack.
Russia believes this shows that the US no longer cares about "international rules" and has returned to the 19th-century logic of "the stronger the fist, the more power you have." This unpredictability worries Russia: what if it becomes weaker one day, and the US might act against it just as it did against Iran?
2. The US's preference for "decapitation" tactics may encourage more countries to develop nuclear weapons
In the past, the US would follow certain procedures when dealing with hostile leaders—for example, Gaddafi was killed by the opposition after Libya's internal collapse, and Saddam Hussein was tried by an Iraqi court. But now, the US simply carries out "decapitation" operations—such as attempting to kidnap Venezuela's Maduro or assassinate Iran's Rouhani—without any pretense of a legal framework or internal process.
Russian scholars argue that if leaders feel they could be eliminated by the US at any time, they will view nuclear weapons as their only means of survival. The war with Iran was intended to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, but the outcome might be the opposite: more countries may secretly pursue nuclear development for their own security, increasing the risk of nuclear proliferation.
3. Failed US-Iran negotiations make Russia even less willing to engage with the US
During the war, both sides held several rounds of talks and signed a memorandum of understanding, but the conflict still erupted. This has further dampened Russia's interest in diplomacy with the US. Russia was already dissatisfied with the Trump administration, and now that it sees diplomacy as ineffective, it sees no point in wasting time.
Additionally, during the Russia-Ukraine war, the US's restrictions on the use of Western weapons in Russian territory have eased from a "moderate" approach in 2022-2024 to an "unrestricted" one, especially under Trump, who was considered relatively friendly. This makes Russia believe that US pressure will only increase, and diplomacy is incapable of resolving issues.
4. Russia and Iran are drawing closer due to shared sanctions
Both Russia and Iran are under severe US sanctions. If one of them fails, the US is likely to turn its resources to the other. Therefore, the two countries are closely aligned:
- During the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia used approximately 57,000 Iranian drones, which were crucial on the battlefield.
- The Russian Ministry of Education has made "Iranian economic studies" a priority, focusing on how Iran avoids sanctions.
- After the US-Iran war, Russia provided Iran with improved drones, reconnaissance intelligence, and anti-interference devices.
- After the US blocked Iran's maritime routes, the Caspian Sea has become a vital logistical route for Iran, and the two countries exchange large amounts of goods there.
The US has threatened to sanction countries that deal with Iran (including Russia), but Russia is unconcerned. Russia's permanent representative to the UN said, "We've seen too many sanctions threats and no longer pay attention to them."
5. The US aims to isolate Iran, but other countries are not buying it
Iran's top ten trading partners include non-Western countries such as China, India, and Russia. The US Secretary of the Treasury has set "deadlines" for these countries, threatening to sanction them if they do not cut off relations with Iran and threatening to exclude entities that help Iran with money laundering from the US dollar system. However, Russia's response suggests that these countries are unlikely to compromise easily, as Iran is an important trading partner, and no one wants to be controlled by the US.
In summary, the US-Iran war has reinforced Russia's belief that the US is untrustworthy, and only by working together can countries counteract US pressure. This suggests that cooperation among non-Western powers may become increasingly close in the future.