虎嗅

"Will the IPO of Yangtze Memory be the prelude to the 'Return of the King'?"

原文:长江存储IPO,会是“王者归来”序章吗

Summary of Key Points

As a leading Chinese NAND chip manufacturer, Yangtze Memory once caught up with global technological advancements (such as developing its own Xtacking architecture and mass-producing 232-layer NAND chips). However, in 2022, its development was halted due to U.S. sanctions. Now, driven by the AI revolution, which has sparked a surge in storage demand, Yangtze Memory is launching an IPO to raise 33 billion yuan. Its goals are not only to regain its technological leadership but also to build a domestic semiconductor ecosystem, transitioning from being a mere link in the supply chain to a core player that can challenge the global storage industry landscape.

Detailed Analysis

1. Why the "Return of a King"? – Past Achievements and Setbacks

Yangtze Memory's title as a "king" is well-deserved: in 2022, it had already mass-produced 232-layer NAND chips (while Samsung was only producing samples and SK Hynix had not yet started mass production), and its chips were even verified by Apple, making it one of the potential third-party flash memory suppliers for iPhones. However, the same year, U.S. sanctions prevented it from advancing to 128-layer and higher-layer NAND chip production, hindering its ability to increase chip complexity and enter high-end markets like Apple's.

With the advent of the AI era, where storage chips are in high demand for AI training and operations, Yangtze Memory is using the IPO as an opportunity to pick up where it left off. Its ambitions are even greater: it aims to not only reclaim its technological position but also establish its own supply chain.

2. Xtacking Technology: Yangtze Memory's Unique Advantage

The core of NAND chips is to store more data at a lower cost per bit. Traditional NAND combines the storage array and peripheral circuits on the same wafer, which limits performance due to mutual constraints (e.g., circuit technology affecting storage density). Yangtze Memory's Xtacking technology separates these components and then bonds them using a specialized bonding process:

  • Advantage 1: Both components can be manufactured using the most suitable processes (e.g., high-density storage using advanced stacking techniques and advanced logic circuits).
  • Advantage 2: Two production lines can operate in parallel, significantly increasing efficiency, especially for higher-layer chips (e.g., 128-layer and above, where traditional methods are much slower).
  • Industry Recognition: Samsung and SK Hynix have since adopted similar architectures, and Samsung has even licensed certain Xtacking technologies from Yangtze Memory, indicating that this has become an industry standard.

3. The Power of AI

The demand for storage chips in AI is enormous; training large models requires terabytes of data, and real-time interactions with AI systems (like ChatGPT) also demand fast storage. This has transformed storage chips from a niche component to a highly profitable segment. Yangtze Memory's opportunity lies in the higher margins associated with high-end storage solutions. By leveraging its current third-place global market share (14% in shipments), it can increase its revenue (currently fifth in the market) and potentially re-enter Apple's supply chain to sell more high-end products.

4. IPO Funds: Beyond Expansion, Building an Ecosystem

The 33 billion yuan raised through the IPO will be used for two main purposes:

  • Technological Advancement: Upgrading the Xtacking technology to version 4.0 to produce 300-layer and higher-layer NAND chips, as well as researching new storage interfaces (e.g., HBF technology).
  • Ecosystem Development: Using products from domestic equipment manufacturers (e.g., high-aspect-ratio etching machines) for mass production validation, which is crucial for their technological maturity. U.S. sanctions forced Yangtze Memory to rely on domestic equipment, which has spurred progress in the local manufacturing sector.

5. The Impact of Yangtze Memory's Return

Yangtze Memory's return is not just a company-level event; it will have a broader impact on the entire industry:

  • For International Manufacturers: Samsung and SK Hynix, which have factories in China (Xi'an and Dalian), are testing domestic equipment due to potential import restrictions, driven by Yangtze Memory's efforts.
  • For the Domestic Ecosystem: Yangtze Memory will become a central hub, driving the growth of related industries such as equipment, materials, and packaging. For example, domestic etching and bonding machines can gain global recognition after being validated by Yangtze Memory's production processes.
  • Future Goals: Moving from third-place shipments to among the top three in revenue, entering high-end markets, and ultimately establishing a self-sufficient storage supply chain to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.

Conclusion

Yangtze Memory's IPO is not just about raising funds for listing; it marks the beginning of its journey to reclaim its status as a global leader. By leveraging its technological strengths in the AI market and investing in the ecosystem, it aims to transform from a Chinese NAND champion to a player that can shape the global storage industry. For consumers, this means that more storage chips in our phones and computers will be manufactured in China, reducing the risk of supply disruptions.