Summary of Key Points
Recently, China has made consecutive breakthroughs in the field of reusable rockets: The Long March 10B achieved the world's first maritime recovery using a "grid system," while the Zhuque-3 completed the first land recovery by a private Chinese rocket using "Falcon-style" landing legs. However, the gap compared to SpaceX lies not in the ability to recover rockets, but in the ability to turn this process into a routine practice. SpaceX has already achieved 12 rocket reuses and operates at a scale of 100 launches per year, creating a self-reinforcing cycle that includes rocket reuse, constellation networking, user payment, and reinvestment in research and development. The new "Space Race" between China and the United States is essentially a battle for dominance in the space economy: which country can transform space from a rare and distant endeavor into a sustainable business sector, making rocket and satellite services as common as high-speed rail and 4G connectivity for ordinary people?
I. China's Double Successes with Rocket Recovery: Two Approaches Both Successful
This summer, China achieved two "firsts" in the field of reusable rockets:
- The "Grid Capture" of the Long March 10B: On July 10, the first stage of the 63-meter-tall rocket was successfully recovered by a maritime recovery ship using a grid system composed of four arresting cables. This was the world's first maritime recovery using such a system, representing a unique engineering approach that did not follow SpaceX's landing leg approach.
- The "Standing Recovery" of the Zhuque-3: On August 19, the Zhuque-3, developed by the private company LandSpace, used its landing legs to stand vertically on the ground, marking the first land recovery by a Chinese private rocket using the more mature "Falcon-style" method.
The significance of these achievements is that China has moved reusable rockets from the laboratory stage to practical, operational use—no longer just theoretical demonstrations, but technologies capable of carrying payloads into orbit and returning safely.
II. What Makes SpaceX So Powerful Is Their Ability to Turn Miracles into the Norm
On the same day (August 19), SpaceX completed its 100th launch of 2026, with 97 of those launches using the Falcon 9 rocket. To date, the Falcon series has been recovered 651 times. SpaceX's strength lies not in its first rocket recovery in 2015, but in the fact that this has become routine over the past decade. News headlines have shifted from "rocket recovered" to "this rocket is flying again," indicating that rocket recovery is now part of a standardized industrial process, similar to how airplanes are repaired and reused after flights.
The fundamental differences between China's achievements and SpaceX's include:
- Engineering Capability: How quickly can rockets be reused after recovery? While SpaceX can launch again within weeks, China is still testing the ability to reuse rockets within half a year.
- Launch Frequency: SpaceX launches 100 rockets per year, while China only achieved 50 commercial launches in 2025.
- Cost Control: SpaceX has reduced launch costs to a few thousand dollars per kilogram, while China is still working on how to lower costs through reuse.
III. SpaceX's Self-Sustaining Cycle: Building, Using, and Profiting from Rockets
Many people think of SpaceX as a rocket company, but it is actually a creator of a complete space economy ecosystem, driven by the "flywheel effect":
1. Government Contracts as a Starting Point: NASA and the U.S. Space Force provided early contracts (such as a $2.6 billion commercial crew transportation contract) to help SpaceX overcome technical challenges.
2. Cost Reduction through Reuse: Reusing Falcon 9 rockets has reduced launch costs by more than 70%.
3. Creating Demand with Its Own Constellations: Falcon 9 is used to launch Starlink satellites, with 74 of the first 100 launches this year dedicated to this project. The more satellites, the better the service.
4. User Payments Fuel Research and Development: Starlink has 12 million users, generating revenue that is reinvested in developing larger, fully reusable Starship rockets.
This cycle accelerates: cheaper rockets lead to expanded constellations, more users, higher revenue, and more advanced rockets. SpaceX is not just a company; it has built a complete ecosystem involving the government, capital, and end-users.
IV. China's Commercial Space Industry: Many Players, but a Lack of a Sustaining Cycle
China has many players in the commercial space sector, including state-owned enterprises (Long March 10B) and private companies (LandSpace, StarPower), as well as satellite constellations (such as the national low-earth orbit network and Shanghai Yuanxin's Qianfan constellation). Satellite factories can produce satellites daily (e.g., Shanghai GES). However, challenges include:
- Demand Dependency on Projects: Most orders come from government or regional constellations, not from a sustained market demand. If projects are delayed, rocket companies may face shortages of work.
- Dispersed Entities: Rocket, satellite, and operational services are provided by different companies, lacking the integrated "build, use, profit" cycle seen at SpaceX. For example, rocket companies wait for satellite orders, satellite companies need rocket launches, and end-users struggle to find stable services.
- Weak Commercial Profitability: Satellite services have not yet become widely available to the general public; for instance, direct satellite connections for phones are still in the testing phase, and remote sensing data is not yet a routine tool in industries like agriculture or insurance.
In short, China has the "vehicles" (rockets) and "cargo" (satellites), but the necessary cycle for profitability ( Rockets transporting cargo, cargo generating revenue, and revenue supporting further development) is not yet in place.
V. The True Test of Success: Making Space Services Ubiquitous
The ultimate goal of the competition between China and the U.S. is not about the number of rockets, but about making space services a part of everyday life:
- Rockets Should Become Regular: Like high-speed rail, launches should be timely and affordable, encouraging companies to use rockets for satellites, data centers, and cargo.
- Satellites Should Become a Network: Direct satellite connections should be as convenient as 4G, and remote sensing data should be as commonly used as weather forecasts.
- A Sustainable Business Cycle: China does not need a "Chinese Musk" to succeed; it needs a collaborative ecosystem involving multiple stakeholders. The government can provide support, private companies can compete for services, satellite factories can reduce costs, and operators can integrate space capabilities into various industries.
A mature space economy makes technology routine—people should use rockets and satellite services just like they use high-speed rail and 4G. China's opportunities lie in its strong manufacturing base, large market, and supportive policies. By integrating these advantages, it can establish a place in the space economy.
In conclusion, a single recovery system may capture a rocket, but it cannot sustain a space industry. What truly drives China's commercial space industry are repeated successful launches, a profitable satellite network, and a customer base willing to pay for long-term services. Only when these elements are in place will the outcome of the new "Space Race" become clear.