Summary of Key Points
In the past two months, China has achieved two “firsts” in the field of reusable rockets: the Long March 10B successfully completed the world’s first sea-based net recovery, and the private Blue Arrow Aerospace’s Zhuque-3 achieved China’s first land-based recovery using landing legs, marking the entry of China’s reusable rockets into the operational phase. Meanwhile, SpaceX has established a routine operation of launching 100 rockets per year, with 12 launches of each rocket’s first stage being reused, creating a commercial “flywheel” that includes rocket reuse, satellite constellations, user revenue, and further research and development. The essence of this new “Space Race” between China and the United States is not about who can be the first to “plant their flag” in space, but about who can turn space from a rare excursion into a sustainable business opportunity—by using rockets efficiently, deploying large-scale satellite networks, and providing paid services to create a closed-loop space economy. China has advantages in manufacturing and policy, but there is still a gap in the normalization of engineering processes, the internalization of demand, and the formation of a commercial closed-loop. In the future, China needs to follow a “Chinese-style flywheel” approach that involves collaboration among multiple stakeholders.
Detailed Analysis
1. China’s Rockets Have “Returned Home,” but It’s Just the First Step of a Long Journey
Why are these two “first recoveries” significant for China?
- Long March 10B’s Net Recovery: This represents a novel technical approach. Instead of using SpaceX’s landing legs, China used a net arranged in a “well” shape on a ship to capture the rocket, akin to installing an “air safety net” for the rocket. This is the world’s first sea-based net recovery, indicating that China does not want to follow others’ methods and is seeking a path that suits its own needs (such as avoiding densely populated areas on land).
- Zhuque-3’s Landing Legs: Blue Arrow Aerospace’s achievement is similar to SpaceX’s vertical landing method. They quickly progressed from a failed first flight recovery to a successful one within less than nine months, demonstrating the iterative nature of commercial spaceflight—trial and error, improvement, and re-attempt.
However, it’s important to note that successful recovery does not equate to successful reuse. Just like a broken bowl that needs to be repaired before use, the components of a recovered rocket must be inspected to determine their condition, and the cost of repair must not be higher than that of purchasing a new one. The Long March 10B’s first stage is scheduled to be recovered by the end of the year, and Zhuque-3 is set to make another flight within half a year—these will be the real tests.
2. The Power of SpaceX: Turning “Feats” into the Norm
What makes SpaceX remarkable is not their first recovery, but the fact that this has become routine after a decade. News headlines have shifted from “The rocket returned” to “This rocket has flown again,” reflecting their industrial capability. Their core strategy is the “flywheel effect”:
- Step 1: Government Contracts for Initial Funding: NASA and the US military provided initial contracts (such as a $2.6 billion manned mission contract), helping SpaceX overcome technical challenges and prove that spaceflight is a viable service.
- Step 2: Creating Demand: They used the Falcon 9 to launch their own Starlink satellites. Reusing rockets reduces launch costs, allowing for the deployment of more satellites, which in turn improves service quality and attracts more users (currently 12 million). The monthly fees paid by users fund the development of new rockets.
- Step 3: Creating a Self-Sustaining Cycle: Starlink is their largest customer, accounting for 74% of their launch missions. As the Starship becomes more capable, it can further reduce launch costs and enable the expansion of the satellite network. This is a snowball effect that accelerates over time.
SpaceX is not just a rocket company; they are a company that operates a closed-loop system for space transportation and internet services—producing, launching, and selling rockets, while also reinvesting profits in new technologies.
3. China’s Advantages and Challenges
China has a solid foundation for commercial spaceflight:
- Growing Demand: There is a growing demand for low-earth orbit satellite networks (e.g., the Shanghai Yuanxin’s Qianfan constellation with 238 satellites) and direct satellite communication for mobile phones (which can use standard 5G technology).
- Strong Manufacturing Capacity: China’s satellite factories can produce satellites at a high rate (e.g., Shanghai Gesis), allowing for rapid cost reduction when demand is clear.
- Policy Support: Commercial spaceflight is being promoted as a key industry, with commercial launches expected to account for 54% and satellites 84% of the market by 2025.
However, China faces challenges:
- Lack of Engineering Normalization: China has not yet achieved a complete closed-loop of “launch-recovery-reuse,” with fewer rocket reuses and slower turnover compared to SpaceX (which launches rockets every few days).
- Quality of Demand: Most orders come from government projects, and delays in these projects can impact rocket companies. In contrast, SpaceX has a stable customer base in Starlink.
- Dispersed Industry Chain: The components of spaceflight (rockets, satellites, terminals, operations) are not integrated as efficiently as in SpaceX’s model, lacking a cohesive “rocket-constellation-user” closed-loop.
4. The Essence of the Space Race
The current Space Race is not about who can reach the highest altitude, but about who can dominate the space economy:
- Controlling Infrastructure and Rules: Rockets are the “railways” of space, and satellite constellations are the “internet.” Spectrum and orbital slots are valuable resources that must be deployed on time; those who can launch frequently and efficiently will secure them.
- Attracting Users: Space services need to reach ordinary people, such as through direct satellite communication and remote sensing applications. For example, satellite data can help farmers predict crop yields and insurance companies assess damages.
- Setting Standards: Technological standards determine who has the upper hand in the market. If SpaceX’s standards become widely adopted, other companies will have to follow.
McKinsey predicts that the global space economy will reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, with growth coming from services rather than rockets and satellites themselves, similar to how the value of the internet lies in applications like e-commerce and social media.
5. A Chinese Approach to Commercial Spaceflight
China does not need to rely on a single company to dominate the space industry; instead, it can follow a multi-stakeholder approach:
- Government as a Anchor: The government can provide stable demand through national constellations to help companies get off the ground, while ensuring fair competition among different technologies.
- Private Sector Focusing on Efficiency: Rocket companies should focus on reusing rockets rather than just competing for the first launch. Customers value punctuality, cost, and reliability, not just the initial success.
- Profitability for Constellations: Satellite companies should consider profitability, not just the number of satellites, by addressing pricing and market access (e.g., through securing spectrum and compliance in overseas markets).
- Applications Driving Growth: Industries such as agriculture and logistics should participate to turn satellite data into practical services. For example, using satellite data for crop forecasting and providing internet services to ships at sea.
Only when multiple stakeholders work together to reduce costs, expand constellations, generate user revenue, and reinvest in research and development can China’s commercial spaceflight truly achieve its potential.
Conclusion
China’s rockets have returned home, but to turn space into a profitable business, it is necessary to turn these “firsts” into regular successes, turn projects into sustainable operations, and integrate the various components of the space industry into a cohesive closed-loop. The outcome of this competition will depend on which country can make space services indispensable to people’s daily lives.