Core Summary
South Korea has seen a continuous increase in the number of births for 24 months, with June, the second quarter, and the first half of the year all reaching new highs in seven years. The total fertility rate has slightly rebounded, but this is due to the release of postponed marriage and childbearing desires during the pandemic, as well as a temporary boost from the larger pool of women of childbearing age. However, this does not represent a fundamental change in young people's attitudes towards marriage and childbearing. The current total fertility rate is still far below the 2.1 level required to maintain population stability. South Korea has been experiencing a natural decline in population for six years and has officially entered an aging society, with the proportion of working-age people falling below 70% for the first time. The number of elderly workers has even surpassed the number of people in their 50s, indicating that the long-term population crisis has not been alleviated.
1. Births Rising for 24 Months: Short-Term Factors Driving the Increase
In June, the number of births in South Korea was 23,100, a year-on-year increase of 15.6% (the highest increase since 1981); 70,800 births were recorded in the second quarter, up 15.8% (also a historical high); and a total of 145,800 births occurred in the first half of the year, an increase of 15.4%—all of which are the highest figures for the same period in the past seven years. The continuous increase in births over the past 24 months is mainly driven by the rise in the number of marriages: in the first half of this year, 124,300 couples registered their marriages, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. This increase is not due to a sudden surge in the desire to have children among young people, but rather a result of people who postponed their marriages during the pandemic now registering them. Additionally, the base of women in the 30-34 age group who are of childbearing age has not significantly decreased, providing a short-term boost. The high cost of housing, family debt, and competitive job markets that young people face have not been resolved, so this is merely a temporary rebound, not a long-term trend reversal.
2. Fertility Rate Rebounding: Still Far from the “Passing Mark”
South Korea’s total fertility rate (the average number of children born per woman in her lifetime) has risen from a historical low of 0.72 in 2023 to 0.8 this year and is expected to reach 0.9 (for the first time in seven years). However, the internationally recognized “population stability level” is 2.1, which takes into account factors such as early deaths and unmarried individuals. There is still a gap of 1.3 between the current rate of 0.8 and the target of 2.1, meaning that each woman would need to have more than one child to meet the population stability goal. The long-term trend of declining population has not been reversed.
3. Population Continuing to Decline: The Aging Society Has Arrived
Despite the increase in births, the number of deaths exceeds the number of births—there will be a natural decline of more than 108,000 people in 2025, marking the sixth consecutive year of negative population growth. More concerning is the fact that the population of people aged 65 and above has reached 10.84 million, accounting for 21.21% of the total population, officially defining South Korea as an “aging society” (according to international standards, this threshold is ≥20%). The median age of the population is 46.8 years, meaning that half of the population is close to 47 years old, and the society is aging at an accelerating pace.
4. Working-Age Population Drops Below 70%: The Elderly Become a “New Force” in the Labor Market
The proportion of the working-age population (15-64 years old) has fallen to 69.2% for the first time, indicating a decreasing number of people available to work. However, the number of employed people aged 60 and above has reached 6.834 million, exceeding the number of people in their 50s (6.679 million)—this is the first time this has happened since 1963. In particular, the number of employed people aged 70 and above has increased by 9.2% (to 2.162 million), while the number of employed people in their 50s has decreased by 0.4%. This suggests that the labor market in South Korea is aging, and elderly people are forced to work or that policies are in place to fill the resulting gap.
5. Policies Are Effective, but There Are Concerns
In 2024, South Korea declared a “population emergency” and introduced measures such as cash subsidies, extended parental leave, tax incentives for marriage and childbearing, and preferential mortgage policies, which have indeed encouraged women in the 30-34 age group to have children. However, government officials are concerned that these benefits may diminish by 2027, and the core issues facing young people (such as difficulty in purchasing housing and high job competition) have not been resolved. The temporary increase in births does not indicate that the population crisis has been alleviated, and further observation is needed.
(The entire analysis is presented in plain language, avoiding technical jargon, and covers the key data and logic to help the general public understand the current population situation in South Korea.)