Summary of Key Points
In 2025, the trend of an aging and declining birth rate in China will further intensify: the number of births will drop to 7.92 million (birth rate of 5.63‰), the number of deaths will reach 11.31 million (death rate of 8.04‰), resulting in a natural growth rate of -2.41‰ (a continuous decrease in the total population); the proportion of people aged 65 and above will account for 15.9% (indicating a deepening of moderate aging), while the proportion of people aged 0-15 will only be 16.4% (the gap between the two has narrowed to 0.5 percentage points). In response to this situation, the government is taking action on both ends of the age spectrum: supporting fertility (with childcare services exceeding targets) and improving elderly care and health services (integrating medical and elderly care, strengthening management of chronic diseases at the grassroots level). In the future, the focus will be on "stabilizing the population, controlling chronic diseases, and optimizing supply" to promote high-quality population development.
I. Population Data: The Dual Trends of Fewer Births and an Aging Population Are More Prominent
The population data for 2025 convey two key messages:
- Fewer newborns: A total of 7.92 million babies were born, 1.62 million fewer than the 9.54 million in 2024, which is equivalent to the population of a medium-sized city. The birth rate of 5.63‰ means that only 5-6 children are born per 1,000 people, a decline from the previous year's rebound.
- An increasing number of elderly people at a faster pace: The proportion of people aged 65 and above has risen to 15.9%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from 2024 (only 0.2 percentage points last year), indicating that the aging process is accelerating. Notably, the proportion of children aged 0-15 (16.4%) is almost equal to that of the elderly (15.9%), suggesting that issues related to elderly care and labor supply will become more prominent in the future.
- Slight improvement in the gender ratio: There are 111.5 male babies per 100 female babies, which is still higher than the United Nations' recommended range of 103-107, but it has decreased by 0.2 percentage points compared to 2024, indicating that the gender imbalance is gradually being addressed.
II. Fertility Support: Childcare Services Have Developed from Non-existence to Excellence
To encourage fertility, the government included "increasing childcare capacity" among its eight key health initiatives in 2025, with significant results:
- Exceeding targets for childcare capacity: There are 4.73 childcare spots per 1,000 people under the age of 3 (the target was 4.5), and the coverage rate at the county level is 98.8%—this means that almost all counties have childcare facilities, relieving parents' concerns about having no one to take care of their children.
- Rapid growth of childcare services: The number of childcare institutions nationwide has increased by 10.5% to 126,000, with 6.657 million childcare spots and 1.431 million staff members (an increase of 13.1%). These figures show that the childcare industry is scaling up to meet the needs of more families.
- Policies directly benefiting families: In 2026, parenting subsidies have reached 25.16 million people, meaning that one in every five families has received financial support, directly alleviating the economic burden of raising children.
III. Elderly Care Services: Integrating Medical and Elderly Care to Ensure Access to Healthcare
To address the deepening aging issue, the government has focused on improving elderly care and health services:
- Hospitals more accessible to the elderly: 8,352 hospitals at the secondary level and above have departments dedicated to geriatric medicine, and nearly 17,000 general hospitals and over 40,000 grassroots institutions have become "elderly-friendly". This means that elderly people can receive professional care closer to home without having to travel to large hospitals.
- Integration of medical and elderly care becoming the norm: There are more than 8,000 institutions that combine medical and elderly care services nationwide; half of these provide both medical and elderly care services, solving the problems of difficulty in accessing healthcare and lack of care for the elderly.
- Chronic disease management at the grassroots level: Public health subsidies have increased from 94 yuan to 99 yuan, and additional tests such as chest X-rays and glycated hemoglobin tests have been added for elderly check-ups. In 2025, 145 million elderly people received health services at the grassroots level, and 117 million hypertensive patients and over 42 million diabetic patients were managed, improving the prevention and control of chronic diseases.
IV. Future Directions: Focusing on Stabilizing the Population, Controlling Chronic Diseases, and Optimizing Supply
The government's future policy priorities are clear:
- Stabilizing the population: Improving fertility subsidies and insurance, expanding affordable childcare and integrated early childhood education (e.g., adding childcare classes in kindergartens) to encourage and enable young people to have children and raise them.
- Controlling chronic diseases: Since chronic diseases account for 88% of deaths, efforts will be made to strengthen prevention and control during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, such as promoting healthy lifestyles and early screening and treatment.
- Optimizing supply: By 2030, the average life expectancy is expected to reach 80 years, and by 2035, a "Healthy China" will be achieved. The government will also promote rehabilitation and long-term care insurance to ensure that disabled elderly people have adequate support.
In summary, in the face of the challenges of an aging and declining birth rate, the government is not adopting a passive approach but is taking action in three key areas: fertility, elderly care, and health, striving to create a more balanced population structure and ensure that everyone can afford to have children, raise them well, and age comfortably.