虎嗅

Why was there almost no warning for the mudslide disaster at the Jilong Port in Tibet?

原文:西藏吉隆口岸的泥石流灾害,为什么几乎没有预警?

Summary of Key Points

Jilonggou has become a region with a high incidence of mudslides due to its terrain, changes in the mountain landscape after earthquakes, climate change, and the presence of ice lakes. Mudslides are more sudden and difficult to predict than regular floods, so it is essential to be alert to specific warning signs and to know the correct methods of escape.

Detailed Explanation

1. Why has Jilonggou become a “natural repository” for mudslides?

The terrain of Jilonggou is inherently risky, with extremely steep slopes and large height differences. The loose soil and rocks on the mountains (such as sand and gravel) can be easily carried down by rain or water, much like a warehouse full of “ammunition.” The 2015 earthquake further weakened the mountain structure, making the rocks even more unstable. With just the right trigger (such as heavy rain or the collapse of an ice lake), mudslides can occur rapidly.

2. Climate change and ice lakes exacerbate the risk

Climate change is causing glaciers to melt faster. There are 55 ice lakes upstream of Jilonggou, which act like large water reservoirs hanging above the valley. When these ice lakes collapse due to melting or other reasons, a large amount of water and debris is released, leading to more powerful mudslides. Additionally, monsoon rains can seep into the unstable soil, increasing the likelihood and intensity of mudslides.

3. Why are mudslides more dangerous than regular floods?

Regular floods rise gradually, giving you time to prepare and evacuate. However, mudslides are sudden and unstoppable. They are a mixture of soil, rocks, and water that move at high speeds, often catching you off guard before you have a chance to react. Mudslides not only destroy buildings but can also carry people and vehicles away, causing much greater damage than ordinary floods.

4. Remember these three warning signs to save your life

If you encounter any of the following in Jilonggou, immediately head for higher ground:

  • Abnormal noises: Sounds such as rumbling or the rolling of rocks may indicate an approaching mudslide.
  • Dried-up streams: Streams that are normally full of water may suddenly dry up, indicating that debris has blocked them, which could lead to a mudslide.
  • Cloudy water: Clear streams turning murky suggests that debris is being carried downstream, and a mudslide may be imminent.

When fleeing, do not move in the direction of the mudslide; instead, climb up the hill at a right angle to its flow. The faster you move, the better. Do not stop to pick up your belongings!