虎嗅

From $5.2 billion to $16.7 billion: What exactly did Trump’s son-in-law bet on this year to turn things around?

原文:从52亿到167亿美元,特朗普女婿这一年押对了什么?

Summary of Key Points

Josh Kushner, the younger son of the Kushner family and brother of Jared, has seen his wealth soar from $5.2 billion to $16.7 billion (more than tripling) in just one year by investing through his venture capital firm, Thrive Capital, in star companies such as OpenAI and SpaceX. Recently, he and former Disney CEO Bob Iger plan to acquire the Lakers for $12.5 billion (although the deal is not yet finalized). Meanwhile, Thrive Holdings has just raised $2 billion and is valued at $12.5 billion, with the aim of using AI to transform traditional services companies. Although Josh and his brother Jared (Trump’s son-in-law) hold opposing political views, Josh’s wealth is 17 times that of Jared and far exceeds Trump’s own.

Detailed Analysis

1. The Secret to His Rapid Wealth Growth: Investing in AI and Tech Superstars

Josh’s fortune did not come out of nowhere; it all stems from his venture capital firm, Thrive Capital, making smart investments in several hit companies:

  • SpaceX: After its June listing, the value of Thrive’s stake soared to $10 billion. Four days later, when SpaceX acquired the AI programming company Cursor, Thrive held a 7% stake, worth an additional $294 million ($42 billion × 7%).
  • OpenAI: With a valuation of $852 billion and an upcoming listing, Thrive’s shares could appreciate even more in the future.
  • Other Successful Investments: Investments in companies like Instagram (for $500 million, later bought by Facebook for $1 billion), Spotify, and Robinhood, which have either gone public or been acquired at high prices.

Combined with the fact that the funds managed by Thrive Capital have grown from $2.3 billion at the end of last year to $6.5 billion (tripling), and Josh holding 66% of the firm, his wealth has naturally skyrocketed.

2. How Thrive Capital Became a Success in the Venture Capital World

Josh founded Thrive Capital in 2010 at the age of 25 with a seed fund of $5 million from General Catalyst co-founders. In 14 years, it has risen from an unknown entity to a leader in the industry:

  • Outstanding Performance: An annual return on investment of 33% (compared to 14% for the S&P 500 and 17% for the NASDAQ). Over the past 12 months, it has distributed $1 billion in cash to investors, and more will be available upon OpenAI’s listing.
  • Precise Investing Vision: Thrive focuses on a select few top-tier companies, such as Anduril ($61 billion in valuation), Databricks ($190 billion), and Stripe ($159 billion), whose valuations have far exceeded market expectations due to compound growth.
  • Rapid Expansion: The firm now manages $6.5 billion, and its latest fund raised over $100 billion. Even Mark Anderson has praised its rapid growth rate as “rare in the industry.”

3. The Lakers Acquisition: A Smart Tax Strategy?

The $12.5 billion deal for the Lakers may seem ambitious, but it potentially involves tax-saving tactics:

  • Tax Benefits: With a well-designed transaction structure, up to 90% of the funds could be classified as “intangible assets” (such as broadcasting rights, player contracts, and brand premiums), which can be amortized over 15 years to reduce taxes by $750 million annually (calculated as $12.5 billion × 90% ÷ 15). This strategy was used by former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer when he acquired the Clippers.
  • Uncertainities in the Deal: Jenny巴斯’s lawyer has denied that a sale agreement has been reached, and Josh must first sell his shares in the Miami Heat (about $80 million) to purchase the Lakers.

4. The Contrast with His Family: Different Political Views, Huge Wealth Differences

Josh stands in contrast to his brother Jared and father Charles:

  • Political Affiliations: Josh supports the Democratic Party, while Jared is Trump’s son-in-law. Their father, Charles, was convicted of tax evasion but was pardoned by Trump and is now the U.S. ambassador to France.
  • Wealth Gap: Josh’s wealth of $16.7 billion is 17 times that of Jared’s $1 billion, and Trump’s wealth is approximately $5 billion (less than one-third of Josh’s).

5. Future Plans: Using AI to Transform Traditional Businesses and Waiting for OpenAI’s Listing

Josh is not resting on his laurels:

  • Thrive Holdings: Having just raised $2 billion and valued at $12.5 billion, the firm plans to acquire service companies (such as those in the food and retail sectors) to optimize operations with AI (e.g., intelligent scheduling and customer analysis).
  • Public Market Investments: He has started buying stocks in Amazon and Shopify, and Oscar Health (the healthcare company he founded in 2012) has seen its stock price rise by 114% this year, generating significant profits.
  • Waiting for OpenAI’s Listing: With an expected valuation in the trillions, Thrive’s shares could become a “money-making machine,” and Josh’s wealth is expected to continue to grow in the coming years.

Conclusion

Josh Kushner’s success is largely due to his timely investment in AI and technology, along with his keen investment acumen and strategic capital management. The contrast between him and his family highlights the different wealth dynamics in American society: Venture capital in technology is more powerful than traditional political and business alliances in creating wealth. Whether the Lakers acquisition goes through or not, it may merely be a bonus for him, as his core investments are the real drivers of his wealth growth.