Summary of Key Points
The growing reluctance of young people in first- and second-tier cities to use buses is not an accidental phenomenon. Subways have taken over the long-distance commuting traffic, while private cars and ride-hailing services have attracted those seeking comfort and convenience. Electric bicycles have also emerged as a major alternative to buses, especially for short distances. Buses themselves face issues such as slow travel times, poor passenger experience, and inconvenient transfers, leading to a vicious cycle where fewer passengers result in fewer service runs. To reverse this trend, buses need to transform from being the primary mode of urban transportation to serving as a complement to subways and covering areas not covered by other transport options, offering differentiated services.
1. Subways: The Number One Competitor to Buses
Subways are the most direct cause of the decline in bus passenger numbers. For example, the Beijing Route 300, a major route around the city's third ring road, had 300,000 daily passengers in 2007, but this has now dropped to 80,000-100,000, mainly due to the emergence of the parallel Subway Line 10, which covers a larger area, travels faster (without traffic lights), and offers more convenient transfers, cutting the Route 300's passenger traffic in half from the day it was launched. Nationwide, subways have surpassed buses in terms of passenger volume once their networks are fully established. In Beijing, subway passenger traffic exceeded bus traffic for the first time in 2017; in Nanchang, subways overtook buses just six years after the subway system was launched; in Shenzhen, bus passenger traffic will account for only 21.5% of subway traffic by 2025. The advantages of subways are clear: they are reliable for long-distance commutes (over 10 kilometers), punctual, and often cheaper, especially for distances over 30 kilometers.
2. Private Cars + Ride-Hailing Services: The Dual Threat to Buses
In addition to subways, private cars and ride-hailing services are also diverting bus passengers:
- Private Cars: The number of private cars in China has more than doubled in the past decade (from 144 million to 323 million), and many people no longer use buses after purchasing a car. In Beijing, private cars account for 8.24 million daily trips, exceeding bus trips; in Shenzhen and Chengdu, the number of private car trips is the highest.
- Ride-Hailing Services: Young people prefer ride-hailing due to its directness. In Shenzhen, the combined number of ride-hailing and taxi trips will reach 794 million by 2025, exceeding bus trips by 706 million; in Guangzhou, ride-hailing services will transport 970 million passengers annually, also more than buses' 910 million. With increased incomes and lower ride-hailing prices, people are willing to pay for the convenience.
3. Electric Bicycles: An Unanticipated Competitor to Buses
Electric bicycles have become a surprising threat to buses, not only as a complement to subways but also as a direct alternative. Surveys in Hangzhou show that one-third of users transfer from buses to bicycles, and many find that electric bicycles are suitable for both short and medium-distance commutes (5-10 kilometers). By 2025, the number of electric bicycles in Guangzhou is expected to reach 6.51 million, with 9.68 million daily rides, surpassing subways (9.31 million) as the primary mode of transportation. The benefits of electric bicycles include avoiding traffic, being less strenuous than cycling, and lower costs (one charge can cover 40 kilometers), making them particularly suitable for short-distance commutes.
4. Buses Themselves: Trapped in a Vicious Cycle
There are also internal reasons why people avoid buses:
- Slow Travel Times: Buses stop at every station, have many traffic lights, and have a poor punctuality record.
- Poor Passenger Experience: Buses are crowded, and waiting times are uncomfortable, especially in cold winter and hot summer weather.
- Inconvenient Transfers: Station spacing is large (800-1000 meters in China, compared to 300-500 meters in other countries).
With fewer passengers, bus companies reduce service runs, which in turn leads to even fewer passengers, creating a cycle where fewer passengers result in even fewer service runs. For example, the Beijing Route 300 has seen its fleet reduced from 260 buses to 120, leading to longer waiting times and even fewer passengers.
5. How Can Buses Survive?
Buses are not obsolete; they need to transform:
- Repositioning: Shift from being the main mode of transportation to serving as a complement to subways and covering areas not served by other options.
- Differentiated Services: Offer customized bus services (such as company shuttle buses, on-demand rides, and tourist routes).
- Improving Details: Use smaller bus models, flexible routes, and reduce station spacing (e.g., to 300-500 meters) to improve the passenger experience.
By addressing these issues, buses can still retain their role in urban transportation as one of the most cost-effective modes of travel.
In Summary: The decline in bus usage is a result of urban development and the diversification of transportation options. However, by repositioning themselves and improving their services, buses can still find a place in urban transportation systems.