Summary of Key Points
This year, Europe has experienced rare heatwaves and droughts, leading to a significant reduction in the production of major crops such as potatoes (especially those used for French fries in countries like Belgium and France) and corn, with many yields reaching new lows in decades. The extreme weather not only resulted in potatoes being too small to be suitable for making French fries but also caused other issues, such as increased salinity in irrigation water and soaring planting costs, resulting in nearly 400 million euros in losses for the French potato industry. Although some crops can be supplemented from regions like Ukraine, the long-term drought in the traditional potato-growing areas of northwestern Europe continues to exacerbate a vicious cycle of decreasing planting areas leading to even lower yields.
Detailed Analysis
1. The Potato Crisis in Potato-Farming Nations: Losing the Qualification to Produce French Fries
Belgium is the world's largest exporter of frozen French fries, processing 6 million tons of potatoes annually, with 90% of its output going to more than 120 countries. However, this year's potatoes are so small that they are barely suitable for use in French fries—farmer-grown potatoes are only the size of ping-pong balls, four times smaller than the usual size. The situation in France is even worse: potato production is expected to decline by 23% this year, the lowest level in over 30 years, following already record-low yields last year. The yield per hectare has dropped from 43.5 tons to 34.5 tons. Some countries in southern Europe may face total crop failures, and the EU did not anticipate that the drought would cause potatoes to shrink to such a extent.
2. Corn as a Hard-hit Crop: A Collective Reduction in European Crops
Apart from potatoes, corn has been the most severely affected crop. EU corn production is expected to reach its lowest level since 1995, with France's corn output possibly dropping to 9 million tons (the lowest since 1980). Wheat and barley have fared slightly better, with reductions of 3%-4%, but sunflower seeds and olive oil production have also decreased by 6%-7%. Even sunflowers, which are relatively drought-resistant, have not been spared. The reason is simple: summer crops (such as corn and potatoes) are in their critical flowering and fruiting stages during the drought, and without sufficient water, they cannot grow properly.
3. Is Irrigation a Solution? Saltwater in Water Sources and Rising Costs
Many farms have irrigation facilities, but they are of little use. European rivers are dry, and the scarcity of fresh water has led to saltwater infiltrating irrigation systems. Using saltwater for irrigation only makes the crops more water-starved. Reservoirs are drying up, and river water use is restricted, rendering irrigation equipment practically useless. Even if irrigation is possible, the costs are extremely high due to rising prices for fuel, electricity, and labor. Moreover, Europe is facing power shortages, which means more irrigation is needed during droughts, leading to even higher costs and a further cycle of decline.
4. Heavy Economic Losses and a Vicious Cycle of Decline
The French potato industry has already suffered nearly 400 million euros in losses. Additionally, there was an overproduction of potatoes in 2025, and the planting area in northwestern Europe has decreased by 11%, with France seeing a 10% reduction. Now, with yields plummeting, the situation has turned into a vicious cycle of decreasing production and increasing demand for these crops. Belgium's French fry exports are also affected, as there are not enough large potatoes available for processing, leading to a decline in exports.
5. Are There Any Solutions? Ukraine as a Source of Relief, and Chinese Technologies as a Potential Solution
The good news is that corn can be purchased from Ukraine, where the drought is not as severe as in Western Europe. In the long term, Chinese technologies such as plastic mulching and drip irrigation could be helpful. These methods can reduce water evaporation and allow for more precise watering, helping to address the water shortage issue. European farmers might consider adopting these practices.
The essence of this situation is that extreme weather is disrupting the balance of traditional European agriculture, affecting not only crop yields but also driving up costs and disrupting supply chains. For consumers, this could lead to higher prices for French fries and corn-related products (such as bread and livestock feed). To adapt, European agriculture must quickly adjust its techniques and planting strategies.