Summary of Key Points
YoubiXiong (HKEX) and Yushu Technology (A-share market) are two leading companies in China's robotics industry, yet their financial performance and market valuations exhibit a striking contrast: YoubiXiong has seen its revenue double and its losses significantly decrease in the middle of the year, yet its stock price has been declining; Yushu Technology has a slightly slower revenue growth rate, but its stock price has halved despite still possessing a market value of 200 billion yuan. This disparity reflects the differences in their technological approaches (humanoid vs. quadruped robots), commercialization strategies (industrial vs. consumer), and the capital logic of the HKEX (focusing on profit certainty) versus the A-share market (focusing on the potential of the industry). Both companies are investing in "embodied intelligence," but they are still some way from achieving true intelligence. The outcome over the next two years will be determined by three key factors: industrial scaling, expansion into the consumer market, and breakthroughs in embodied intelligence.
1. Why Does Capital Favor One Over the Other?
The different treatment of YoubiXiong and Yushu Technology by the markets reflects the distinct characteristics of the HKEX and A-share markets:
- HKEX is more pragmatic: Dominated by institutional and foreign investors, they are concerned with when the companies will start making profits. Although YoubiXiong has reduced its losses, it has not yet turned a profit, and its commercialization path (such as household humanoid robots) seems too distant, so investors are hesitant to invest.
- A-share market is more dream-oriented: With a higher proportion of individual investors and speculative capital, there is a preference for stories like "China's version of Boston Dynamics" or "domestic substitution." Yushu Technology's quadruped robots have been sold globally, with millions of views on YouTube, and the "Made in China" label is highly appealing. Even if they currently earn less, investors are willing to pay a premium for a compelling story.
In short, the HKEX seeks immediate financial returns, while the A-share market is willing to invest in long-term potential.
2. Technological Approaches: One Aspires to Be the "Apple of Robotics," the Other Focuses on Sales
The founders of the two companies chose different paths from the beginning:
- YoubiXiong: Aimed high with humanoid robots, founder Zhou Jian mortgaged his house to fund the development of servo actuators (the core components of robots), with the goal of making robots as common as smartphones in households. The company is expanding into industrial, commercial, and household applications and building a large factory, aiming to become a full-stack company like Apple. However, humanoid robotics is technically complex and has a long commercialization cycle.
- Yushu Technology: Took a more incremental approach with quadruped robots, ignoring the advice of mentors to focus on these more stable robots. They started by selling consumer-grade robot dogs (ranging from a few thousand to tens of thousands of yuan), generating cash flow and building a brand before gradually moving onto humanoid robots. This strategy has helped them quickly establish a commercial model.
There is no right or wrong approach, but capital prefers clear progress. Yushu Technology's robot dogs have been a huge success, while YoubiXiong's humanoid robots are still in the testing phase.
3. Commercialization Strategies: First in the Factory, or First as a Home Companion?
The companies' approaches to generating revenue also differ:
- YoubiXiong: Starting with the industrial sector, where humanoid robots are used for tasks like material handling and assembly in factories. The demand in this context is clear, and the payment potential is high, allowing for rapid technology improvement and cash generation. However, industrial applications require significant investment and time to scale.
- Yushu Technology: Focusing on the consumer market with quadruped robots for entertainment, education, and inspection tasks. Their Go2 robot dog costs less than 20,000 yuan, making it affordable for most consumers, thus providing quick cash flow. However, the potential for growth in this market is limited, as quadruped robots are still more like advanced toys.
In summary, YoubiXiong faces a longer and harder path to profitability, while Yushu Technology has seen immediate success.
4. Embodied Intelligence: The Big Buzz, but Have Robots Really Become Smarter?
The concept of embodied intelligence has gained significant attention, suggesting that installing large models in robots can make them more intelligent. However, the reality is:
- YoubiXiong's Walker robots still perform predefined tasks in factories, far from autonomous decision-making.
- Yushu Technology's Go2 robot dog, despite having an AI chip, can only perform simple path planning and is more like a moving toy.
True embodied intelligence requires a powerful "brain" (large models), sensitive "senses" (sensors), and flexible "limbs" (mechanical structures), along with extensive real-world data training. Neither company has achieved this yet, and it will take at least three to five years to see real progress. The one that first establishes a viable data loop will have the upper hand.
5. The Next Two Years: Three Questions Will Determine the Winner
The industry's future will be decided by three key issues:
1. Can humanoid robots replace humans in factories? If YoubiXiong can scale the deployment of its Walker robots and reduce costs compared to traditional equipment, the HKEX's valuation logic may change, giving YoubiXiong an opportunity to turn things around.
2. Can quadruped robots break out of the "toy category"? If Yushu Technology's Go2 robots can enter more household and educational settings, their high valuation in the A-share market will be supported by actual performance.
3. Can embodied intelligence make a breakthrough? If large models truly enable robots to think autonomously, the entire industry will be transformed, and the competitive landscape will change dramatically.
The current disparity is temporary. The market will determine the winner over the next two years through practical outcomes.
In conclusion, China's robotics industry is still in its early stages, and both approaches are worth exploring. There's no need to rush; true innovation rarely happens overnight.