Summary of the Core Content
This article discusses the crisis of intellectual commodification brought about by the rapid rise of AI, with the central argument being that AI is about to surpass humans in almost all digital tasks (such as coding, analysis, and graphic design), turning what were once scarce mental tasks into a cheap, public resource—similar to the "Haber-Bosch moment" in history when synthetic ammonia replaced natural nitrate. Ordinary people can no longer ask "Will AI replace me?" but must instead consider how to "hedge" their positions. This means adjusting their skills and resource allocation to avoid being completely eroded by the downward trend in the value of mental work, ultimately retaining the right to decide what is worth pursuing in life.
Detailed Breakdown and Interpretation
1. Why Has Intelligence Suddenly Become Less Valuable? — The "Haber-Bosch Moment" Caused by AI
You may have heard the saying "rarity makes things valuable," and indeed, mental tasks like coding and report writing were once considered scarce and thus highly paid. However, AI is making them as inexpensive as they were nitrate in the past. For example:
- Chile once thrived on the mining of natural nitrate, which was used for fertilizers and explosives, accounting for two-thirds of the global market;
- The invention of synthetic ammonia technology later made nitrogen from the air a cheaper alternative, causing Chile's market share to plummet to 7.6%.
Now, AI is the equivalent of synthetic ammonia. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 is 12.5 times cheaper than its predecessor GPT-5.4, yet its intelligence is only slightly inferior. What's more, AI can also optimize GPU cores, further reducing costs. Skills that took you ten years to master could now be replaced by a monthly AI subscription for just $20—this isn't that your abilities are useless, but rather that their value has been diminished.
2. Don't Learn Skills Blindly! Hedging Involves Avoiding Common Mistakes
Many people think that learning multiple skills is a form of hedging, such as mastering copywriting and PPT creation, but this is ineffective because these are "pure digital tasks" that depreciate as AI improves. The real key to hedging is to find activities that are not affected by the decline in AI's value:
- Taking Responsibility: AI can provide surgical plans, but it cannot sign consent forms or assume medical risks;
- Being Physically Present: AI can write articles about mountain climbing, but it doesn't have a body that can break while climbing;
- Creating Tangible Assets: AI can design batteries, but it can't manufacture them in a factory. For ordinary people, this means finding jobs that cannot be completely automated.
In other words, don't compete with AI on speed and quality; focus on doing things that AI cannot handle.
3. Trust Is More Valuable Than Intelligence — The "Hard Currency" of the AI Era
AI can generate countless suggestions, but you don't know which ones to trust. In this context, trust becomes a scarce resource:
- Trust builds over time: If you consistently deliver on time and admit your mistakes over a decade, people will start to trust you;
- Trust cannot be mass-produced: AI can mimic your voice, but it cannot fulfill promises from the past;
- Trust acts as a guarantee: Others will entrust you with important decisions because they know you will be accountable.
Therefore, don't rely solely on intelligence; build a reputation for reliability—by consistently writing articles, building a direct client base, and keeping your real name visible.
4. Having an Exit Strategy Is the Key to Safety — Don't Be Locked to a Single Dependency
Many people are tied to a single source of income, clients, or a single platform. If one of these fails, it can be devastating. The key to hedging is to have an exit strategy:
- What constitutes an exit strategy? This includes a list of clients you can take with you, your intellectual property, readers you can reach without a platform, and a savings fund that allows you to live for at least three months (even reducing expenses gives you more confidence to say "I'm done").
- Diversify Your Assets: Maintain a conservative approach with low fixed costs and a solid foundation (e.g., your health and credit), while also being proactive in using AI to pursue big opportunities.
- The Balance Between Safety and Ambition: A "barbell strategy" is crucial; being too conservative (low fixed costs) or too aggressive (using AI for big opportunities) can be risky. A stable job offers no benefits from AI's advantages and exposes you to the risks of intellectual devaluation.
5. The Fundamental Principle of Hedging: You Only Get One Life
Hedging is not about financial techniques; it's about how you view time. While AI can try thousands of approaches simultaneously, failing 9,999 times doesn't matter, you only get one life. Therefore, you need to:
- Prioritize: Decide what is worth investing in (e.g., which skills and clients to focus on);
- Retain Control of Your Choices: AI can provide the best options for all possible paths in life, but you must make the final choices yourself, taking into account your physical limitations, your reputation, and the irreversibility of time.
Final Conclusion
AI will make intelligence less valuable, but you can retain control of your life by doing things that AI cannot handle, building a reputation for reliability, and having a safety net in place. The goal is not to outperform AI, but to avoid being completely marginalized by it.