虎嗅

From Paris to Cape Town: The West has never slackened in its efforts; China cannot afford a second failure.

原文:从巴黎到卡角:西方从未懈怠,中国输不起第二次

Summary of Key Points

This article begins with the launch of the Roman Space Telescope in the United States to reveal the strategic logic behind space astronomy: Over more than three centuries of institutionalization of astronomy (led by the state, supported by legislation, and integrated with industry), the West has transformed astronomical observations from a personal hobby into a "knowledge-producing machine" that has fueled advancements in maritime power, industry, and governance models. In contrast, during China's Ming and Qing dynasties, the failure to integrate astronomy into a national strategic asset led to missed opportunities for modernization and subsequent weakness. Although China has made progress in the field of space astronomy, there are still gaps in terms of institutional continuity, legal support, and core technologies. It is essential to establish a sustainable and systematic approach to avoid falling behind again.

1. The Roman Telescope: More Than Just a Scientific Instrument

The Roman Telescope is often underestimated, not because it is not powerful (it features a 2.4-meter main mirror and a field of view 100 times that of the Hubble Telescope), but because the public does not realize that what is at stake is the "right to define" fundamental questions in physics—such as the nature of dark energy, the origin of the universe, and the patterns of exoplanets. Whoever obtains this data will have the opportunity to "make a name for themselves" in future physics textbooks.

More importantly, why does the U.S. Congress go to such great lengths to protect it? It's not because its members understand astronomy; rather, they realize that the loss of the Roman Telescope would disrupt an entire industrial chain—technologies like infrared detectors and precision refrigeration systems, which can be used in both astronomy and applications such as missile detection and semiconductors. The telescope is at the heart of this "knowledge-producing machine," and the resulting loss would take a generation to recover.

2. The West's Institutionalization of Astronomy: From a Nobleman's Toy to a National Engine

The West's commitment to astronomy is not accidental; it began in the 17th century. The Paris Observatory was a turning point: King Louis XIV funded its construction not for the sake of stargazing but to assist the navy in determining longitude for precise navigation and to map the country's boundaries. This shift transformed astronomy from a leisure activity for the elite into a professional science driven by the state. Subsequent observatories in Greenwich, Berlin, and Saint Petersburg further integrated astronomy with navigation, industry, and physics. For example, the need for accurate clocks drove the development of the clock-making industry, and lens-making technology was applied to microscopes and cameras. This "state + science + industry" system has fueled Western progress in an unstoppable manner.

3. China's Missed Opportunities

During the Ming and Qing dynasties, China was not unaware of telescopes—telescopes introduced by Matteo Ricci and used by Emperor Kangxi to observe solar eclipses. However, the problem was that these instruments remained confined to the imperial court, used for compiling calendars and predicting natural disasters, without being integrated into a broader knowledge system. The mistakes were twofold: first, data was not made public, preventing theoretical advancement; second, local scientists did not take over the research; third, the study of astronomy was prohibited to the general public, and there were no private observatories. As a result, China failed to develop a sophisticated industrial base, advanced navigation capabilities, or effective governance systems, leading to its vulnerability in modern times.

4. Current Progress and Remaining Gaps

After the founding of the People's Republic of China, China began to catch up, with initiatives such as the FAST (Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Radio Telescope) and the CSST (China Space Telescope), which will be launched in 2027. However, the gaps remain:

  • Generational Gap: While the West has launched three generations of flagship telescopes (Hubble, Webb, Roman), China's CSST is still in the first generation.
  • Missing Spectral Bands: The West has flagship instruments in infrared and ultraviolet wavelengths, while China relies on smaller satellites to fill these gaps.
  • Lack of Institutional Stability: The U.S. uses decade-long plans and legal frameworks to support its astronomy projects, whereas China's projects are often subject to changes in government or budgetary constraints.
  • Technological Backlogs: The West has advanced infrared detector technology three generations, while China is still working on these advancements.

The most critical issue is the time lag between project initiation and launch (15-20 years). If the CSST is decommissioned in 2037 and the next-generation infrared telescope is not launched in time, China will fall two and a half generations behind by 2046.

5. How to Close the Gap: Building a Self-Sustaining System

Space astronomy is not just a tool for scientists; it is a national strategic asset. What needs to be established is a system that allows telescopes to be developed continuously:

  • Plan for the Next Generation: Initiate projects for the next-generation telescope while the current one is still in use, with budgets and plans legally mandated to ensure continuity.
  • Overcome Technological Barriers: Focus on developing core technologies such as infrared detectors and ultraviolet CCDs.
  • Open Data and Assert Voice: Make the data from FAST and CSST available internationally to gain influence in standard-setting.
  • Clarify the Strategic Importance: Scientists must communicate the value of astronomy to policymakers and the public, emphasizing that observations represent power and data define national boundaries.

History has shown us the consequences of missing opportunities (as with the Paris Observatory three hundred years ago). The launch of the CSST represents a second chance, and China cannot afford to fail again.

Epilogue: In 1667, the West transformed astronomy into a national asset; we are 358 years behind. This time, China cannot afford to miss the opportunity.