Summary of Key Points
Recently, there has been a sudden resurgence in interest in Level 3 (L3) autonomous driving technology. On one hand, executives from automakers such as ZhiJie, Huawei, and BYD have stated that over 90% of pre-orders for the ZhiJie RX model have chosen the L3 version. On the other hand, on August 25th, a draft revision to the Road Traffic Safety Law clearly stipulated that in the event of an accident while L3 or L4 autonomous driving modes are activated, the responsibility lies with the automaker—this addresses the biggest hurdle to the commercialization of L3 technology (determination of liability). However, the adoption of L3 will not be as rapid as that of 5G, as there are still practical issues to overcome, including details regarding liability determination, insurance pricing, and user trust.
Detailed Analysis
1. Why has L3 suddenly “reemerged.”? Regulations provide clarity on liability
L3 technology had been relatively quiet for over a year due to national regulations governing the dissemination and use of assisted driving features, which aimed to prevent issues related to unclear liability. The sudden surge in interest is largely due to the draft revision of the Road Traffic Safety Law, which, for the first time, legally establishes that if a car owner uses an officially certified L3 function and there are no violations or manual interventions during operation, the automaker will be responsible in the event of an accident. This change is crucial: previously, in the event of an accident with L2 assisted driving, the driver would be held accountable, which deterred many from fully embracing such technology. Now that automakers bear the responsibility, both users and manufacturers feel more reassured, leading to increased enthusiasm and better sales numbers for L3 models.
2. “Not buying L3 now is like not buying 5G back then.”? A partial comparison
Zhao Changjiang of ZhiJie used this analogy to suggest that L3 may eventually become as essential as 5G. Indeed, 5G’s adoption rate increased rapidly from 3.5% in 2019 to 86.9% within six years. Automakers hope that L3 will follow the same trajectory, and the fact that 90% of ZhiJie RX orders include the L3 option is encouraging. However, there is a fundamental difference between the two: the potential risks are vastly different. With 5G, the worst outcome is a slow internet connection; with L3, an accident could result in a car crash, with serious consequences ranging from vehicle damage to injury. Therefore, while 5G’s adoption relied on user experimentation and the desire for better technology, L3 must first establish a solid safety foundation, making its widespread adoption much slower.
3. The core difference between L3 and L2: it’s not about technology, but about liability
Many believe L3 is more advanced than L2, but the real difference lies in the allocation of responsibility:
- L2 (e.g., current navigation assistance): The system provides assistance, but the driver must remain alert and take control at all times; any accident is the driver’s responsibility.
- L3: In designated scenarios (e.g., on highways), the system takes full control. As long as the driver does not violate rules (e.g., does not use the phone or interfere manually), the automaker is responsible in the event of an accident. The draft law also addresses the issue of “shifting responsibility at the last moment,” ensuring that the system alerts the driver 10 seconds in advance to take over, and if the driver does not respond, the vehicle will slow down and pull over on its own.
4. What are automakers doing? Preparing for the future by installing hardware
Many mid-to-high-end cars released in the past year (e.g., ZhiJie RX, NIO ET9) have included L3-ready hardware in their top or mid-range configurations. This involves installing redundant components such as dual braking systems, dual steering mechanisms, and dual power supplies, which cannot be upgraded later via software. The reason for this is that regulatory changes take time, and by preparing in advance, automakers ensure that users can upgrade to L3 functionality without having to replace their vehicles when the time is right, thus betting on future demand for these features.
5. How long until L3 becomes widespread? It will be slower than 5G
Despite progress in regulations and hardware, there are still many practical issues to address:
- Liability determination: How can it be proven that the driver did not intervene? Is the liability the same in different scenarios (highways vs. urban areas)?
- Insurance: If automakers bear the responsibility, who will cover the insurance costs? Will the automakers purchase additional insurance, or will users have to pay extra?
- User trust: Currently, only 34% of vehicles are equipped with L2 assisted driving, and many users are still hesitant to trust such systems fully, let alone hand over all control to L3. Therefore, even if the regulations are finalized next year, L3 will not become widely adopted immediately. Many challenges need to be overcome before users transition from being able to use L3 to being willing and comfortable using it.
In conclusion
L3 represents the next major trend in the automotive industry, but it is not a simple continuation of 5G. Its widespread adoption requires the coordination of various factors, including regulations, technology, insurance, and user trust. While the process will take time, once L3 is fully matured, it is expected to revolutionize the way we drive.