Summary of Key Points
As the sales rankings of the four new car-making companies (ZeroRun, Xpeng, NIO, and Li Auto) have begun to stabilize, each is exploring a "second growth trajectory" in search of additional revenue sources. However, the core car-making business remains their foundation. Xpeng is betting on humanoid robots, ZeroRun is fully focusing on international expansion, Li Auto is attempting to transform into an AI company, and NIO is deepening its multi-brand strategy. Yet, these second growth strategies have not yet been fully implemented. In the future, the company that can first convert them into stable cash flows will gain the upper hand in the competition.
Detailed Analysis
1. Xpeng: Robots as the "Future Dream," but First, They Need to Sell Cars to Survive
Xpeng's financial reports have almost become robot launch events, with analysts constantly asking about the mass production timeline, cost, and gross margin of the Iron robot. The reason is simple: on the day of the financial report release, Xpeng's robot division had just completed a $900 million financing round, with a valuation of over $6.3 billion, and He Xiaopeng personally serves as the CEO.
- Layout Details: The Iron robot is planned to be mass-produced by the end of 2026 (initially for use as a guide in Xpeng stores) and delivered to customers in 2027, with production capacity expected to expand to several thousand units per month. 85% of its supply chain is shared with the car manufacturing process, which can reduce material costs (industry norms suggest robot prices are 2.5-3 times the cost of materials, and additional revenue can be generated through software subscriptions).
- Concerns: The current use cases for robots are limited, and their production capacity is far lower than that of cars. Cars accounted for 85.6% of Xpeng's revenue in the first half of the year, but investments in new businesses such as robots and flying cars have led to a net loss of $3.12 billion (twice the amount in the same period last year). If car sales continue to be a source of cash outflows, Xpeng's "robot dream" may be difficult to sustain.
2. ZeroRun: International Expansion as a Pragmatic Approach
ZeroRun doesn't focus on sci-fi-like stories about robots; its financial reports are filled with discussions about expanding overseas and collaborating with partners. This is its most practical second growth strategy.
- Outstanding Achievements: In the first half of the year, it exported 96,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 372.6%, accounting for 27% of total sales (exceeding the annual export volume for 2025). The initial target of 100,000-150,000 units was immediately raised to 200,000 units, with plans to reach 350,000-400,000 units by 2027.
- Collaborative Advantages: By partnering with Stellantis, ZeroRun is using their overseas channels and factories (in Malaysia, Spain, etc.) to reduce construction costs and time. The current strategy is to focus on scale first before pursuing profits—short-term gross margins may be low, but the loss in the first half of 2026 was due to exchange rate issues, which should be offset in the second half. ZeroRun has already reported profits for three consecutive half-years.
3. Li Auto: Aspiring to Be an AI Company, but the Market Is More Concerned About Sales
Li Auto often claims to be an AI company (with self-developed chips, batteries, and advanced driving systems), but analysts first ask about sales trends and cost control in their financial reports.
- Realistic Pressures: Sales in the second quarter dropped by 11.5% year-on-year (due to the switch to a new platform for the range-extended L series, clearing inventory of older models, and the transition period for new products). The all-electric i6 model sold well (accounting for half of sales in July), but lower prices reduced the gross margin (from 19.6% to 7.8%). Additionally, rising raw material costs led to a loss of $398 million (compared to a profit of $170 million in the same period last year).
- AI Positioning: Li Auto's AI efforts are more of a "supporting tool"—the chips and models are used in cars. The market still focuses on sales performance and profit stability, and Li Auto's AI initiatives have not yet convinced investors.
4. NIO: Deepening the Multi-Brand Strategy in the Core Business
NIO is not trying to diversify; instead, it is focusing on strengthening its core car-making business by establishing a multi-brand portfolio of "NIO (high-end)," "Lido (mid-range)," and "Firefly (entry-level)" models.
- Brand Impact: Total sales in the second quarter increased by 49.4% year-on-year, covering a wider price range. However, the multi-brand strategy has increased marketing and R&D costs, resulting in a GAAP loss of $528 million (although it narrowed compared to the first quarter). After adjustments, NIO turned a profit, but overall profitability still requires time.
- AI Approach: NIO is pragmatic about its AI efforts—only one investment-related question was asked, and the company supports employees in starting their own businesses (for example, the person in charge of intelligent driving started an AI company with NIO as a strategic investor), while NIO itself focuses on its core car-making activities.
5. The Ultimate Test for the Second Growth Trajectories: Who Can Convert Them into Real Cash?
None of the four companies has fully succeeded with their second growth strategies: Xpeng's robot project is far from commercialization, ZeroRun's international expansion is stable but lacks profitability, Li Auto's AI efforts have not been well-received by the market, and NIO's multi-brand strategy is still in the investment phase. With the domestic car market highly competitive, these companies must find new sources of growth.
The Key: The company that can first generate stable cash flows from its second growth strategies will emerge as the winner. For example, if ZeroRun can expand its market share and increase profits through international expansion, if Xpeng's robots can be mass-produced on time and find viable use cases, if Li Auto's AI can become a competitive product, or if NIO's multi-brand strategy becomes profitable—then that company will take the lead in the competition.
In One Sentence
The essence of the second growth trajectories for these new car-making companies is that "only when the core business is stable can they pursue their dreams." Currently, all are making mistakes and the ultimate test will be who can turn their ideas into real cash flows.
(End of the analysis)