Summary of Key Points
In the past two years, the total number of teachers nationwide has been declining continuously. However, this is not due to a "surplus of teachers" in general, but rather the result of demographic changes and mismatches in the workforce structure. The decrease in the birth rate is affecting the education system in a phased manner, with the impact being felt first in kindergartens and primary schools, and then gradually extending to middle and high schools. At the same time, there is a severe mismatch between the supply and demand of teachers across different educational stages, regions, and subjects (for example, there is a surplus of teachers in rural primary schools, but a shortage of science teachers in urban middle schools, and an overemphasis on subjects like Chinese, mathematics, and English, while there is a lack of teachers in mental health education). The key to addressing this issue is to shift from a focus on "recruiting new teachers" to "redeploying existing teachers" effectively, while also adjusting the direction of teacher training programs to meet new educational needs.
The Truth Behind the Decline in Teacher Numbers: The Birth Rate Decline Hits the Education System
The reduction in the total number of teachers is not the result of sudden layoffs, but rather a chain reaction of declining birth rates. After a brief rebound in 2016, the birth rate has been on a continuous downward trend, affecting various educational stages in a sequential manner:
- Kindergartens are the first to be affected: From 2022 to 2025, the number of kindergarten teachers decreased from 3.24 million to 2.61 million, a reduction of 630,000 (almost 20%).
- Primary schools are next: From 2023 to 2025, the number of primary school teachers decreased from 6.65 million to 6.45 million, a reduction of 190,000.
- Middle and high schools are still expanding: The enrollment in middle schools increased slightly in 2025, and the number of students and teachers in high schools continues to grow (with a student-teacher ratio of 12.8:1).
Due to the different peak ages of the population entering each educational stage (preschool in 2020, primary school in 2023, middle school in 2026, and high school in 2029), we will see a strange phenomenon in the next few years: a decline in the total number of teachers at the earlier stages (preschool and primary school) while there is an expansion at the later stages (middle and high schools). As a result, the national total number of teachers will decrease, but some regions will still be building new middle schools and recruiting more high school teachers.
Is the Total Number of Teachers Enough, but Not the Right Types? Three Major Mismatches Are Causing the Problem
The statistical "surplus" of teachers may not translate into a sufficient supply at the school level because teachers are not movable assets like desks and chairs; they must pass through three "selection processes" before being employed:
1. Mismatch in Educational Stages: Teachers from Preschool Cannot Move to Middle Schools
Primary school teachers who wish to teach in middle schools need to retake qualification exams and acquire additional subject knowledge (for example, they may not have studied middle school physics). It is even more difficult for kindergarten teachers to switch to teach subjects in the compulsory education curriculum. Even if they are willing to transfer, issues such as professional titles and salary benefits can prevent this from happening. Therefore, when there is a surplus of primary school teachers, they cannot be directly transferred to middle schools; instead, young teachers must be trained, or older teachers must retire naturally.
2. Spatial Mismatch: Surplus in Rural Areas, Shortage in Urban Areas
As the population moves out of rural schools, the number of students decreases, but rural schools with only a few students still need to offer a full range of subjects (Chinese, mathematics, physical education, etc.). Teachers cannot be reduced in proportion to the number of students (or classes would be empty). In contrast, new urban areas and high-quality schools, due to population growth, face high class sizes and often rely on temporary teachers. In 2025, the number of urban primary school teachers increased by 87,800, while the number in rural areas decreased by 118,000, reflecting this imbalance.
3. Mismatch in Subjects: Overemphasis on Traditional Subjects, Lack of Teachers for New Subjects
In the past, recruitment focused mainly on subjects like Chinese, mathematics, and English. However, schools now need teachers in science, mental health, information technology, and AI-related fields, but few current teachers have the necessary qualifications. For example, recruitment policies in 2026 emphasize the need to fill these shortages, indicating a surplus of teachers in traditional subjects and a significant gap in new subjects.
From "Recruiting" to "Redeploying" Teachers: How to Make Best Use of the Existing Pool
In the past, when there were more students, simply recruiting new teachers was sufficient. Now, in an era of teacher shortages, the focus should be on redeploying existing teachers. The key steps include:
1. Precise Prediction: Combine Data into a Comprehensive Picture
County-level education departments should analyze data on birth rates, population movements, new school constructions, and teacher retirements over the next 3-5 years. For example, if a county plans to build three new middle schools in the next two years, they should prepare for the increase in teacher demand in advance to avoid unnecessary reductions or expansions in recruitment.
2. Enhanced Coordination: Make Teachers Part of a Unified System
For example, Sichuan has implemented a system where teachers are managed at the county level and can be assigned to schools as needed. This allows teachers from rural areas with surplus to be deployed to urban schools in need, and flexible transfers between different educational stages are possible.
3. Support for Career Transfers
Cross-disciplinary and cross-stage transfers require more than short-term training sessions; they should be structured as comprehensive programs (e.g., half a year to one year of specialized training, including practical classroom experience) and come with job guarantees for successful candidates.
4. Smooth Transition for Retirements
The surplus of teachers should be managed through natural retirement, with priority given to this option. For those who can adapt to new roles, provide support and opportunities for transition. For those who are not suitable for new positions, a gradual assessment and exit process should be implemented. A more innovative approach is to use the surplus teachers for specialized services, such as small-class tutoring and after-school support, to provide better attention to each student.
Teacher Training Programs Need to Change: Stop Producing Teachers for Traditional Subjects Only
Teacher training institutions have traditionally focused on producing teachers for traditional subjects. Now, they need to adjust their programs:
- Adjusting Enrollment: Reduce enrollment in preschool and some primary education programs based on local population trends; increase enrollment in subjects in high demand (science, mental health, information technology, special education, vocational education).
- Upgrading Programs: Improve the quality of undergraduate programs at national-level teacher training universities to produce more advanced teachers and educational researchers.
- Matching Graduates with Future Needs: Starting in 2024, six national-level teacher training universities will offer a "4+2" program that combines undergraduate and graduate studies, with graduates directed to teach outside the provincial capital. The enrollment plan must align with future teacher needs (for example, if a county will need science teachers in six years, graduates should be prepared for those roles from the start).
- From One-Time Training to Lifelong Support: Teacher training institutions should become centers for professional development, providing ongoing training and certification for both new and existing teachers. They should also integrate AI into their curricula, teaching teachers how to use AI to improve teaching methods and maintain the essence of education (e.g., AI should not replace emotional connections between teachers and students).
Conclusion
The decline in the total number of teachers is not a negative development; it represents an opportunity for education to shift from expansion to quality improvement. Focusing solely on reducing teacher recruitment will exacerbate structural issues, such as teachers struggling to find jobs and schools lacking the right subjects. By reallocating teachers to where they are needed and in the subjects that are in demand, we can improve the quality of education. The solution lies not in the overall national teacher count, but in the specific processes of mobility, transformation, and continuous professional development.