Summary of the Key Points
This article, written by a technology investor, directly challenges the common perception of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). In the past, everyone focused on the performance and reasoning abilities of large models, assuming that being “as intelligent as humans” was the critical milestone for AGI. However, the real turning point of AGI is not a technological breakthrough in the laboratory, but whether AI can consistently create real economic value in a stable and cost-effective manner—meaning it transforms from a “tool that can answer questions” into a “digital worker” that can perform tasks independently. The article looks back at the 70-year development of AI, highlighting that its progress was not due to a single breakthrough technology, but rather a combination of various factors such as data, computing power, and user interfaces. The future of AGI will not just lead to increased competition within the large-model industry; it will represent the third major productivity revolution since the Industrial Revolution, which enabled the mass replication of physical labor and the Internet, which replicated information at zero cost. This revolution will fundamentally reshape the global labor market and the distribution of wealth.
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Detailed and Easy-to-Understand Explanation
1. The First Counterintuitive Point: The Standard for AGI is Not “Being as Intelligent as Humans,” but “Being Able to Work Like a Worker”
When discussing AGI, people often focus on whether it can solve complex problems or outperform humans in tests. However, from a business owner’s perspective, these are irrelevant criteria. When hiring an administrative staff member, you don’t need to test their ability to solve advanced math problems; you just want someone who can work continuously for 8 hours without distractions, complete tasks such as customer research, data organization, and email sending, without your constant supervision. Many high-performing AI models in laboratories are useless in real-world business scenarios because they make mistakes quickly and require human intervention, which is more expensive than hiring a real person. The true standard for AGI is its ability to deliver results independently, without the need for constant supervision, and at a lower cost than hiring a human. The day when AI can work and earn a salary like a regular employee will mark the true beginning of the AGI era.
2. AI’s Development Took 70 Years, Not a Sudden Breakthrough
Scientists first proposed the concept of artificial intelligence in 1956, but two industry bubbles burst along the way: attempts at machine translation in the 1960s and expert systems in the 1980s failed. The reason wasn’t a lack of intelligence among the scientists, but rather the world’s lack of the necessary infrastructure. It’s like having the blueprint for a supercar but no high-quality fuel or well-built roads—no matter how advanced the engine, it would remain unused. AI’s success today is the result of a combination of various technologies that have matured over the decades. The Internet has provided vast amounts of data for AI to learn from, and tools like ChatGPT have made AI more accessible to everyone. These factors have come together, allowing AI to emerge from the laboratory.
3. AI’s Next Target is Not the Software Market, but the Global Labor Budget
In the past few years, the most profitable segments of the AI industry have been those providing foundational technologies (GPU chips, servers, etc.). However, the real market for AI will be the billions of dollars spent each year on hiring employees by companies worldwide. AI offers businesses a new option: instead of hiring many people, they can use a few digital workers to handle tasks, reducing costs and increasing efficiency. This will create new industries, such as HR systems that manage digital employees, which are much larger than the software market.
4. AI Won’t Eliminate All Jobs, but It Will Reprice Ordinary Cognitive Skills
The concern that AI will replace all jobs is overblown. The Industrial Revolution and the spread of computers and the Internet didn’t eliminate all jobs; they only reduced the value of certain types of work. Similarly, AI will reduce the value of tasks that require routine cognitive skills. Skills that don’t require creativity, responsibility, or emotional connection will become less valuable, while those that require unique abilities (such as building trust with clients, creative design, and decision-making) will become more valuable.
5. A Simple Way to Evaluate Technological Trends: Check if They Are Practical
To assess whether a technology (like AGI, humanoid robots, or quantum computing) will be successful, use these five criteria:
1. Has the cost been reduced to a level that small businesses can afford?
2. Is the necessary infrastructure in place?
3. Is the technology stable enough for real-world use?
4. Is it easy for ordinary people to use without extensive training?
5. Does it generate more profit than it costs?
True game-changers don’t announce their success in the laboratory; they become widely adopted when they are more cost-effective than traditional methods. The real explosion of AGI will happen when small businesses see practical benefits.
In summary, AGI will transform the global labor market and the distribution of wealth, but it won’t eliminate all jobs. Instead, it will reprice ordinary cognitive skills and create new opportunities.