Summary of Key Points
This report exposes the frenzied state of the current domestic AI large-model primary market: The leading large-model company, DeepSeek, has a valuation of 500 billion yuan and plans to raise over 100 billion yuan in two rounds of financing, exceeding the total financing amount of all AI startups in the industry in 2025. However, this financing process deviates completely from normal venture capital (VC) practices. There is no public business plan, no in-depth due diligence, and investors are required to lock in their investments for five years without the option to sell. Despite this, investors from all over the market are eager to participate, leading to a series of anomalies. Brokers are creating false stories about the founder's childhood friends, former CFOs, and connections within the government to sell fake shares. Fake financial documents, millions spent on meeting fees, and layers of middleman fees are common. 99% of investors have no real access to the shares. Essentially, it's a money game where everyone is betting on DeepSeek being the only ticket to China's AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) revolution. A large amount of state-owned and private capital could be exploited by intermediaries in this chaotic situation.
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Detailed and Easy-to-Understand Explanation
1. The frenzy to obtain DeepSeek shares exceeds the competition for luxury real estate in major cities
Normally, for popular startup projects, investors simply queue up to submit their applications. But with DeepSeek, the situation has gone crazy: Some people spend millions renting planes and drinking茅台 for three decades to build connections, only to end up with nothing. Others offer 5 million yuan for a meeting with founder Liang Wenfeng, only to see their money go down the drain without even meeting him. There are even those who use fake financial documents worth 3 billion yuan, with the employee issuing the document not even working for the company.
What's more ridiculous is that for any popular large-model financing, the founder can suddenly claim to have dozens of "childhood friends" and "relatives." During the financing of another famous large model, the market was full of claims about "old shares held by the founder's childhood friends," forcing the company to issue a statement denying any special channels or existing shares, and even filing a police report. Currently, 90% of the institutions claiming to have DeepSeek shares don't even know where the company is located, and they are simply lying to make money.
2. Investing 100 million yuan results in a loss of 18 million yuan as a starting price; intermediaries strip away profits like "Tang Seng's flesh"
Normally, the management fee for a fund is 2% per year. For DeepSeek shares, a 18% fee is charged upfront, meaning you lose 18 million yuan just to pay the intermediaries. Even worse, some channels charge up to 37% upfront, resulting in a loss of 37 million yuan out of the 100 million invested.
You can't directly transfer the money to DeepSeek's account; it has to go through multiple layers of third-party funds, with each layer taking a cut. Many people invest tens of millions or even billions but never meet the DeepSeek team and only have a partnership agreement of unknown authenticity. Whether they get any equity depends on the broker's word.
3. This is not normal financing; it's a "circle-entry ticket" issued by Liang Wenfeng himself, with outsiders excluded
Normally, startups beg for investors to invest, fearing they won't get the funds. DeepSeek, however, controls everything. Even industry giants like Tencent and CATL can't directly invest in DeepSeek without going through its designated partnership platforms. The only external institution that can invest is a state-owned fund.
All potential investors must go through two rounds of review: first, by top-tier institutions that assess their background and investment history to ensure the funds are legitimate. Then, DeepSeek's official approval is required. Individual investors must invest at least 100 million yuan to qualify. Those who come late can't even make it onto the candidate list. One investor summarized it well: This project isn't about whether it's a star project or not; if you're not part of Liang Wenfeng's circle, no amount of money or connections will get you any real shares. Promising companies like Jiaxing Shiyuan and Qingdao Haozheng didn't even make the initial funding list; their claims were all false.
4. Despite a five-year lock-up period and significant losses, investors still flock in
DeepSeek's first seven months' revenue was only 475 million yuan, and it spent 11 billion yuan on computing power, resulting in huge losses. Investors are willing to forgo immediate returns because they're betting on two "surest" outcomes:
- AI companies like Zhipu, which went public and instantly gained a market value of billions of Hong Kong dollars, saw early investors earn tens to hundreds of times their investment. If they can obtain DeepSeek shares, it will boost their credibility when raising funds, even if the project's future is uncertain.
- The market believes DeepSeek is the most likely to develop AGI, making it like buying a ticket to the core of China's future AI industry. The potential return is huge, but if they lose, the money is often from state-owned funds or large investors, so the risk is shared.
5. This game of passing the ball will likely end with most people losing everything
Looking back at Jiaxing Shiyuan, which claimed to have 10 billion yuan in shares from the founder's childhood friends, the operator He Wei admitted having no contact with DeepSeek. The entire story was a lie, and he's now acting as an intermediary, trying to find new buyers for the shares. Many intermediaries spent millions with no result. The rapid spending on AI models means that if DeepSeek fails to achieve AGI or goes public within three to five years, the locked-in funds will be lost. According to VC rules, when even unrelated parties (like those from the sports industry) join in, ordinary investors can't profit, and the ultimate buyers will suffer heavy losses.