Summary of the Analysis
This analysis, written by two experts on Japanese affairs from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, exposes the true intentions behind Japan’s recent stirrings on the tenth anniversary of the so-called “South China Sea Arbitration Case.” Japan is neither a coastal country in the South China Sea nor a party to any disputes in the region. Yet, it has recently used an illegal and invalid arbitration decision from a decade ago to position itself as a “defender of international law” and a “party with legitimate interests in the South China Sea.” In reality, Japan is using international law as a cover to legitimize its military presence in the South China Sea. Its true goal is to take advantage of the United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy to break through the military restrictions imposed on it after World War II, ultimately squeezing China’s strategic space. However, Japan’s past responsibilities for aggression have not been addressed, and its efforts to provoke regional tensions are not widely recognized by the countries in the South China Sea, making its actions futile.
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Detailed and Easy-to-Understand Explanation
1. Japan’s so-called “international law” is merely a form of “law that suits its interests”
Japan’s core argument is that China’s refusal to accept the arbitration is a violation of international law and a disruption of international order, but this is a clever trick that misuses concepts:
- In 2006, China clearly stated, in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, that it does not accept compulsory third-party arbitration in maritime disputes, which is completely legal and compliant. The South China Sea Arbitration Tribunal, established by a Japanese judge named Toshihiko Yanai (who was once an advisor to Abe Shinzo and helped him lift restrictions on Japan’s collective self-defense rights), was inherently biased from the start, making its rulings worthless.
- Japan’s hypocrisy is evident: it has rebranded a small, uninhabitable reef as an “island” to claim hundreds of kilometers of exclusive economic zone, while opposing arbitration when other countries make similar claims. Japan clearly does not respect international law; it only uses parts of it that benefit it.
2. Its verbal claims of “legitimacy” precede its military moves
Comparing Japan’s statements with its actions in the South China Sea over the years shows a clear pattern of “getting on the train before buying a ticket”:
- After the illegal arbitration in 2016, Japan only claimed to be a defender of international order and avoided mentioning any interests in the South China Sea.
- In 2023, it began to provide military aid to the Philippines, granting its Self-Defense Forces (SDF) access to the country without complex procedures.
- In 2026, it signed agreements for logistical support, resolving issues such as supplies and ammunition storage.
- The SDF has now conducted island-defense exercises in the Philippines and tested offensive missiles for the first time since World War II, establishing a complete military intervention chain.
- Japan’s rhetoric has also evolved: it only started calling itself a “party with interests in the South China Sea” in 2025, after already deploying troops there.
3. Japan’s focus on the South China Sea is not about resources; it seeks to break free from post-war constraints
Japan’s real motives are far more ambitious than the South China Sea’s fisheries and oil resources. With the United States retreating from its Indo-Pacific strategy and seeking allies to share defense costs, Japan has seized this opportunity:
- It is increasing its military presence in the South China Sea to demonstrate its commitment to the U.S. and to break through post-war restrictions.
- It uses the South China Sea as a pretext to bypass constitutional limits on overseas military operations.
- Its long-term goal is to link the East China Sea, South China Sea, and Taiwan Strait into a unified defense network to compress China’s strategic space.
4. Unpaid historical debts mean its arguments will be dismissed
Japan’s attempts to justify its actions in the South China Sea, under the guise of peace, only serve to highlight its past aggression.
- During World War II, Japan occupied many islands in the South China Sea, causing widespread suffering in Southeast Asia. The post-war treaties clearly required Japan to return the occupied territories.
- Now, Japan uses “security cooperation” as a cover to reassert its military control over these areas, while accusing China of using force to destabilize the region.
- The countries participating in the joint statements with Japan are mostly non-coastal, and they see through Japan’s true intentions: a foreign country with no historical or legal claim to the South China Sea is simply trying to disrupt the region for its own gain.
In conclusion, Japan’s efforts to manipulate international law and military presence in the South China Sea are ultimately futile. Its past actions and unfulfilled historical obligations will ensure that its attempts to expand its influence in the region are unsuccessful.