Summary of the Key Points
This report delves into the significant disruption caused by AI in the once-popular industry of Chinese short dramas being exported overseas. In previous years, small teams and translators of lesser-known languages could earn tens of thousands of yuan per month by producing these dramas. However, this era has come to an end with the advent of AI. AI has reduced the cost of producing dramas by a factor of ten, increasing production capacity by hundreds of times. It is projected that by 2026, AI-driven short dramas will account for 70% of the overseas market. Yet, despite the seemingly lowered barriers to entry, the industry has shifted from a situation where anyone could profit to one where 90% of the practitioners are unable to make a profit. The cost of attracting viewers has skyrocketed, with the top players taking over 80% of the revenue. Ordinary practitioners are either forced to change careers or develop skills that AI cannot replace. Essentially, the entire industry has been essentially reset by AI.
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Detailed Analysis
1. The First Jobs to Disappear: Short Drama Translators Earning Tens of Thousands per Month
Many people first realized the impact of AI on employment through translators of lesser-known languages. Lin Feng, who entered the industry around 2021, could charge up to 20 yuan per minute for translation work, easily earning over ten thousand yuan a month with a heavy workload. However, with the arrival of AI, this job disappeared completely. Now, the industry's rates have dropped to 5 yuan per minute, and no one is hiring human translators. The difference is clear: while humans can translate at most 10 short dramas per month, costing 2,000-3,000 yuan each, AI can handle 1,000 dramas per month for just 300-500 yuan each, making it 100 times more efficient and costing one-fifth as much. Major drama companies no longer hire external translators; they only need a few people to oversee AI-generated content and then manually refine the scripts for high-quality dramas. For mass-market dramas, AI-generated content that is understandable and doesn't seem out of place is sufficient.
Translators like Lin Feng have been squeezed out of the market. Even those who have long worked on AI-assisted translations have seen their translation skills decline, making it difficult for them to find jobs in other translation-related fields, forcing them to switch careers or develop other skills.
2. AI Isn't Just a Patch for Short Drama Exports; It's a Complete Overhaul of the Production Chain
People thought AI would improve translation and editing speed, but it has actually destroyed the established rules that had been in place for years. Before AI, producing a drama for export was expensive: you needed to buy scripts, hire actors, rent studios, and handle post-production. Now, AI has changed everything. For scriptwriting, AI generates initial drafts, which humans then refine. For filming, AI creates visuals for scenarios that were previously impossible to achieve, such as "half-human, half-beast tycoons" or "ancient princesses becoming internet celebrities in the US." The lowest-cost AI-generated dramas cost just a few hundred yuan per minute, and a 30-episode drama can be produced for tens of thousands of yuan, with the entire process taking as little as three days. Previously, becoming a drama director required a formal education and years of building a network of contacts; now, anyone with basic AI skills can get started, effectively lowering the high barriers of the film and television industry.
3. The Counterintuitive Reality: Lower Production Costs, but Harder to Make a Profit
Most practitioners expected that with costs reduced by a factor of ten, profits would soar. However, 90% of small teams are struggling to break even, and even large companies are struggling. The reason is a reversal in the cost structure: while production costs have decreased, over 80% of the budget is now spent on advertising to attract viewers. Traffic costs have more than doubled, and the willingness of overseas users to pay has halved. With the explosion of AI-generated content, there is an oversupply of similar dramas with familiar plots. To get noticed overseas, companies must spend heavily on social media advertising, which is much more expensive than the production costs.
The top 20 platforms control over 80% of users and revenue, with the top three companies taking a large share. Small teams that work tirelessly on a single drama may only earn a few tens of thousands, with the risk of failing to produce a hit. Even leading companies like Kunlun Wanwei are seeing their profits decline despite increased costs. AI has not created a "lazy win" situation; it has only amplified the advantages of those with resources.
4. AI Isn't a Tool for Easy Success; It Enhances the Advantages of the Strong
Many thought AI would give newcomers with no resources a chance to succeed, but this is not the case. AI is more of a "differential amplifier"—it helps those who already understand overseas audiences and have good ideas to profit quickly. For those who rely on templates, AI can generate hundreds of identical dramas, leaving them with nothing to gain. The real barriers in the industry are now about having exclusive content (e.g., original novels loved by overseas audiences), years of user data, and a well-established brand that attracts viewers. Those who can combine these elements have a greater say in the industry. Those who are unwilling to learn new skills and stick to repetitive tasks are left behind.
5. No One Can Avoid the Wave of AI; You Either Embrace It or Get Left Behind
No one in the industry is completely opposed to AI; people are pragmatic. Just as no one refuses to use the高铁 because they can walk, resisting AI is pointless and will only make you fall further behind. People are finding ways to integrate AI into their work. For example, former translators like Lin Feng have switched to teaching language courses. Top AI creators still write the key parts of their scripts by hand and use AI to handle other tasks. Scriptwriters still focus on the essential elements of drama. In the end, AI has eliminated jobs that relied on repetitive labor, while those who understand users, creativity, and content have gained more power in the industry.