第一财经

Apple's foldable screen is set to make its debut, and amid cost pressures, both old and new models may see a general increase in price.

原文:苹果折叠屏将迎来首秀,成本压力下新旧机型或全面涨价

Summary of Key Points

This news article analyzes the background of Apple's autumn product launch on September 10th in the early hours: It marked the debut of the new CEO, Tim Cook, following a change in leadership. Two key aspects of the event will significantly influence the future direction of the entire smartphone industry. First, Apple is finally releasing its first foldable iPhone after nearly a decade of development, directly competing with Huawei's recently launched triple-fold phone, which costs 19,999 yuan. Second, due to the soaring prices of memory chips, Apple has already increased the prices of its iPad and Mac products, and it is very likely to raise the prices of the new iPhone as well, potentially affecting even the prices of existing models. To cope with these increased costs, Apple has decided to delay the release of the standard iPhone model, focusing its production capacity on the higher-end products first in order to stimulate consumer interest in upgrading and aiming to capture nearly 40% of the global foldable phone market in the coming years.

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Detailed and Easy-to-Understand Explanation

1. This is not just a regular product update; it's the new CEO's "major test"

Many people think this launch is just a standard upgrade, but for Apple, it holds significant importance. Under Steve Jobs' leadership, Apple relied on minor updates for years. Nowadays, iPhones typically last 3-4 years, and consumer demand for replacements has weakened, leading to stagnant sales. The new product strategy, which will be in place for the next 3-5 years, was established long before the new CEO took over. The main goal is to break the cycle of consumers being reluctant to upgrade their phones. The foldable iPhone represents a new breakthrough for Apple, similar to the transition from feature phones to smartphones. Apple hopes to use this innovative design to encourage existing users to spend money on a new device.

2. The foldable iPhone hasn't even been released, but scalpers are already charging exorbitant fees

Even before the official release, the secondary market has become frenzied. Scalers on platforms like Xianyu are charging anywhere from 500 to 700 yuan for their services, with some even asking 5,000 yuan—equivalent to half a month's salary for most people. According to leaked specifications, the foldable iPhone features a book-like folding design and a thickness of only 4.5 mm when opened. It will be powered by the latest 2nm chips, with a starting price of over $2,000 (more than 14,000 yuan) and a 1TB model priced at $3,000 (over 20,000 yuan), competing directly with Huawei's 19,999 yuan triple-fold phone. Domestic manufacturers have already set the expectation for high prices among consumers, with two recently released foldable phones in China costing over 10,000 yuan each. This sets the stage for Apple to dominate the market: currently, foldable phones account for only 2% of the overall smartphone market, but Apple aims to increase this share to 40% by 2027, potentially overtaking market leader Samsung.

3. Apple's decision to raise the price of the Mac by 3,500 yuan is due to soaring memory costs

People often criticize Apple for raising prices unreasonably, but the increase is actually due to drastic rises in upstream costs. Memory chips now account for 34% of the total cost of an iPhone, up from 10% a year ago, and this figure is expected to exceed 40% in the next two years. All smartphones rely on AI functions, which require more memory, and the demand for memory chips is high due to their scarcity, driving up prices. As a result, the total cost of the new iPhone Pro series has increased by over 700 yuan per unit, with the larger storage models seeing a price increase of 1,800 yuan. Apple has already raised the prices of other products, such as the MacBook Pro by 2,000 yuan, the new Mac mini by 2,500 yuan, and the Mac Studio by 3,500 yuan. The new Pro series is expected to see a price increase of around $100 (about 700 yuan). Even existing iPhone models may see price hikes, contrary to Apple's past practice of lowering prices when new models were released. Consumers who hoped to buy a cheaper used iPhone will likely be disappointed.

4. Apple prefers to earn less but retain its high-end customer base

To avoid driving away customers, Apple is willing to absorb some of the cost increases. Instead of passing all the extra costs onto consumers, it plans to reduce its profit margin on the new iPhone Pro by about 700 yuan. The company will also skip releasing the standard iPhone this time, focusing production on the Pro series and the foldable iPhone first, then launching the standard model later to appeal to those seeking better value for money. This strategy allows Apple to maximize profits by focusing its resources on the most profitable products.

5. Apple's pricing strategy will influence the entire industry

Apple's pricing approach will change the competitive landscape of the domestic smartphone market. Previously, domestic manufacturers found it difficult to sell high-end foldable phones for over 10,000 yuan due to consumer perceptions. With Apple setting a starting price of over 14,000 yuan for its foldable iPhone, it has established a new benchmark for high-end products. This will likely increase consumer acceptance of such phones in the future. The competition will shift towards high-end foldable features and AI capabilities. Smaller manufacturers that cannot offer these will face greater challenges, and the average price of smartphones is expected to rise. As a result, the days of buying a new iPhone for around 4,000-5,000 yuan may become a thing of the past.