Summary of the Analysis in Plain Language
This is a field research report from a scholar from the School of Economics at Ryukoku University in Japan, who has long studied Guam. The report, based on a 2026 visit to the island, describes the current state of Guam’s economy. Once a tourist destination that relied on visitors from Japan and East Asia for its livelihood, Guam’s tourism industry has declined by nearly 60%, and its economy now depends entirely on the large-scale construction of military bases by the U.S. military. However, this “base economy” is a typical short-lived and detrimental model: once the bases are completed in about three years, there will be no more jobs available. The Guam government has yet to find a sustainable alternative, and the local residents are suffering from soaring land prices, environmental pollution, and a high incidence of cancer. They even lack basic air defense facilities, making Guam essentially a “human chess piece” in the U.S.’s strategic layout in the Second Island Chain. Not only Guam but also other Pacific islands such as Saipan, Palau, and the Marshall Islands have been transformed into military bases by the U.S., with Japan playing the role of the unwilling payer, using its own taxpayers’ money to build these bases. Even the residents of Okinawa and Miyakojima are being used as pawns in this situation. Now, the local indigenous peoples are beginning to awaken and are joining forces with the anti-base movements in Okinawa to push for decolonization, refusing to be treated as expendable resources that can be discarded at will.
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Detailed Explanation of the Analysis
1. The bizarre transformation of Guam’s economy: Losing a century-old tourism industry for a temporary construction job that will end in three years
Ten years ago, Guam was a popular vacation spot in the Pacific, attracting 1.67 million visitors annually. The island’s businesses, hotels, and tourism services thrived. Now, the number of visitors has dropped to 780,000—almost half of the previous figure—resulting in half of the shops closing down. Even the Chamorro night markets are half-empty, and the island’s population has decreased by 20,000, with many young people moving to Hawaii or the U.S. mainland in search of work.
The current “industry” on Guam is the construction sites for U.S. military bases. A large number of H-2B workers from South Asia are employed to build missile bases, renovate airports, and construct ammunition depots. However, this source of income is not sustainable: all the base construction projects will be completed in about three years, leaving thousands of people unemployed. The Guam government has no plan for the future, and the local housing market has skyrocketed due to the need to make space for the bases. Even if tourism can be revived, many of the island’s prime coastal areas have been occupied by the U.S. military, deterring potential visitors who fear the risk of conflict.
2. The seemingly prosperous “base economy” is actually a losing proposition, with most benefits going to the U.S.
Many people think that the local economy benefits significantly from U.S. military spending, but 90% of the profits flow back to the U.S. High-end hotels on Guam are mostly owned by American investors, and the money spent by the military goes directly into their pockets. Most of the supplies used by the military are transported by U.S. ships, leaving little for local businesses. The local residents bear the negative consequences, such as polluted soil and water, and a higher incidence of cancer compared to the U.S. average. There is also the Jones Act, which requires all ships traveling to and from Guam to be U.S.-owned, significantly increasing transportation costs. The most desperate option for young people on Guam is to join the military; serving three years in the U.S. military allows them to attend university for free. Otherwise, they face difficulty finding decent jobs locally. The memorial in the airport hall for Guam residents who died in the Afghanistan and Gulf Wars symbolizes the trade-off of lives for a chance at a better future.
3. The U.S. uses the entire Pacific Island Chain as expendable targets
The U.S. does not consider these islands as its territory. Guam is not a state of the U.S., and its residents are U.S. citizens but do not have the right to vote in presidential elections or hold legislative seats in Congress. The U.S. is even considering repealing the policy that grants automatic U.S. citizenship to Guam residents, further indicating that these islands are treated as colonies. Not only Guam but also other islands in the Second Island Chain have been converted into military bases. Saipan has two-thirds of its land leased for ammunition storage, and Palau and Yap have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on airport and port improvements for the deployment of high-speed missiles with a range of 3,500 kilometers. The island chain’s air defense systems will be fully operational by 2027. However, the U.S. does not provide basic shelters for the local residents. During a 2017 air defense exercise, it was stated that residents needed to seek shelter in reinforced concrete buildings within 14 minutes, but local leaders criticized the ineffectiveness of these measures. In the event of a real attack, the U.S. would not assume any responsibility for the consequences on these islands.
4. Japan is the biggest victim: Paying to build U.S. bases while using its own residents as pawns
Japan claims to be an equal ally of the U.S., but in reality, it acts as a free ATM for the U.S. For example, when the U.S. and Japan agreed to relocate some Marines from Okinawa to Guam, Japan spent 500 billion yen on new bases, yet only 100 Marines were moved. The remaining Marines showed no desire to leave, effectively wasting billions of Japanese taxpayer money. Japan has also built its own Self-Defense Forces missile bases on Okinawa and Miyakojima, claiming it is for “island defense.” However, there are no plans for evacuating or resettling the local residents in the event of an emergency, treating them similarly to the residents of Guam.
5. The indigenous peoples are waking up: Rejecting colonial rule and joining anti-base movements
The Chamorro people on Guam are realizing that relying on the U.S. will never lead to a better life; they will either remain poor or die in conflicts. Young people on Guam are learning their native Chamorro language and participating in decolonization movements, working together with anti-base groups in Okinawa to protest the transformation of their homes into military bases. In September, a United Nations inspection team will visit Guam to assess progress towards decolonization. The local residents’ demands are clear: either grant them full citizenship and repeal oppressive colonial laws, or let them vote for independence and decide their own fate, no longer to be used as strategic pawns by the U.S. in the Pacific.