Summary of the Key Points
This article analyzes the latest marriage statistics released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs for the second quarter of 2026: In the first half of the year, 3.275 million marriages were registered nationwide, the lowest figure since 2014, a direct halving compared to 6.94 million marriages in the same period 10 years ago, and even 264,000 fewer than in the same period of 2025. On the other hand, the number of divorces increased by 52,000 year-on-year, a rise of nearly 4%, with the number of divorces accounting for 42.2% of the number of marriages. The main conclusion is quite counterintuitive: Young people today are not losing faith in love or unwilling to date; rather, they are calculating the costs of marriage too carefully. In the past, marriage was a "must-have package" for ordinary people to manage daily life, as the costs and risks of living alone were too high to bear. Together, couples could share these burdens. However, with the advent of services such as delivery, domestic help, and public utilities, the traditional practical value of marriage has been broken down into individual services that can be purchased separately. As a result, the costs of buying a house, raising children, and paying betrothal gifts have increased, and the barriers to exiting marriage have become stricter, significantly reducing its cost-effectiveness. The so-called "romantic innovations" such as marriage registration in parks or scenic spots only address the ceremonial aspect of the event on the day of marriage and do not address the underlying issues. To truly increase the willingness of people to marry, it is necessary to reduce the high risks associated with housing, childcare, employment, and elderly care over the decades after marriage, making it more worthwhile for young people to enter into a marriage.
Detailed Explanation of the Key Points
1. Clarifying Two Commonly Misunderstood Marriage Statistics
First, let's clarify the biggest misconception: The 42.2% divorce rate does not mean that 42 out of every 100 couples will divorce. These two figures refer to different groups of people. The 1.38 million divorced couples in the first half of 2026 could have married in any of the years 2015, 2018, or 2022 and have nothing to do with the 3.27 million couples who registered marriages this year. Comparing these two figures directly is like dividing the number of closed奶茶 shops this year by the number of new ones opened this year and claiming that 40% of new shops will close—this is a logical error. Nevertheless, the significance of this figure cannot be ignored. The trend of a 50% decline in the number of marriages over the past decade is alarming: In 2013, 13.47 million marriages were registered nationwide, meaning that 10 out of every 1,000 Chinese people got married; by 2025, that number had dropped to 6.76 million, representing a significant reduction. The entire market related to weddings, maternal and child care, and real estate has shrunk by half compared to 10 years ago, indicating a significant decline in the overall participation rate in marriage in society.
2. Young People Are Not Losing Interest in Romance; They See Marriage as Too Costly
Many older adults are puzzled by the decline in marriage rates. They think that in the past, people rushed to marry because they had few options, but now, with improved living standards, fewer people are getting married. The essence of marriage has changed significantly. Thirty to forty years ago, marriage was essentially a low-cost "cooperative for mutual support": If you lived alone, you had to cook, fix leaks, and handle all household issues yourself. Marriage provided a partner to share the burdens, making life much easier. Today, services like delivery, childcare, and public utilities have made these tasks more accessible individually, but the costs of marriage, such as buying a house, paying for childcare, and hosting a wedding, have increased. The barriers to exiting marriage have also become stricter, reducing its cost-effectiveness. The so-called "romantic innovations" like marriage registration in parks or scenic spots only address the superficial aspects of the ceremony and do not solve the underlying issues. To truly increase marriage rates, it is necessary to reduce the high costs associated with long-term responsibilities such as housing, childcare, employment, and elderly care, making marriage more attractive to young people.
3. The Purpose of "Romantic Innovations" Like Marriage Registration in Parks
The recent trend of marriage registration in parks or scenic spots is intended to reduce the administrative costs associated with marriage. In the past, registering a marriage required a dedicated workday, a long commute to the civil affairs office, and a lengthy process. Now, these events are moved to places where people gather on weekends, making the process more convenient and even an opportunity for social activities. However, these efforts only address the immediate experience of the wedding day and do not address the core concerns that prevent young people from marrying. For example, even if you register your marriage in a Disney castle, you still face high costs such as a monthly mortgage, childcare, and potential job losses after marriage. These practical issues are what truly deter young people from entering into marriage.
4. The Real Solution to Increasing Marriage Rates Lies in Reducing Long-Term Costs
The real approach to increasing marriage rates is to reduce the high costs associated with marriage over the long term. For example, lowering mortgage interest rates for families with children, reducing childcare costs to a reasonable percentage of salaries, and ensuring that companies do not discriminate against women in terms of maternity and paternity leave. These measures may not seem romantic, but they are crucial for making marriage more attractive. Spending billions on creating trendy marriage registration locations is less effective than addressing these practical issues.
5. The Change in Marriage Statistics Is Actually a Good Sign
Many people worry about the decline in marriage rates, thinking it indicates social problems. However, in the past, people often married out of necessity because they had no other options. Now, people have more choices and only enter into marriage if it truly makes sense for them. Marriage is no longer a necessity; it is only worth it when it brings greater happiness and stability. The change in marriage trends reflects a shift in people's priorities, where they no longer marry just to get by but only when the partnership offers real benefits.
In summary, the decline in marriage rates is not necessarily a sign of societal issues. Instead, it reflects a shift in people's choices and priorities. Marriage is becoming a choice based on practical benefits, not a necessity. By addressing the long-term costs associated with marriage, we can help young people see the value of entering into a committed relationship.