Summary in Plain Language
Recently, several newly listed domestic AI companies have encountered a common event in the capital market: the unlocking of restricted shares. This means that the original investors who funded the company’s startup can finally trade the shares they held, which were previously not available for sale on the public market. While this is a routine matter for every listed company, the different ways these companies handled it led to vastly different outcomes:
- Zhipu: They announced half a month in advance that their key shareholders did not plan to sell their shares and intended to hold them for the long term. As a result, the company’s stock price rose by 13% on the day of the share unlocking.
- MiniMax: They only issued a statement on the day of the share unlocking, stating that they would not sell their shares. Although their stock price fell by 16% that day, they managed to avoid a larger loss due to the previous upward trend.
- Moruthread: They remained silent throughout the process and only issued a statement after the stock price hit the daily limit down, claiming there were no issues with the company’s operations. This move caused their stock price to fall by 20% in one day, resulting in a loss of 50 billion yuan in market value, and it also dragged down the entire domestic GPU sector.
This incident serves as a reminder to all domestic AI companies with high valuations: going public is not the end of the journey. The ability to communicate effectively with investors, manage their expectations, and convince the market that you are committed to long-term development, just as importantly as your research and development capabilities, is a crucial skill.
Detailed Analysis
1. Clarifying a Misconception: Share Unlocking Is Not Necessarily a Negative Factor
Many people assume that share unlocking will inevitably lead to a drop in stock prices. However, in Moruthread’s case, the scale of the share unlocking was not significant. Only 5.48% of the company’s total shares were available for sale, which is like 5 out of 100 houses in a neighborhood that were previously restricted from the secondary market. Therefore, a 20% drop and a loss of 50 billion yuan were not expected.
The real reason for the sharp drop was the uncertainty surrounding the company’s future. Moruthread’s stock price had risen significantly, and the initial investors had potentially gained substantial profits. Investors were worried that the shareholders would sell their shares immediately after the unlocking. Since the company provided no clarification—either about the shareholders’ intentions or any plans for the shares—investors panicked and sold, causing the stock price to hit the limit down.
In contrast, Zhipu announced in advance that 70% of the shareholders would hold their shares for the long term, which was seen as an opportunity and led to a rise in the stock price.
2. Comparison of the Four AI Companies’ Responses
- Zhipu: They communicated the shareholders’ intentions to the market through official channels half a month in advance, addressing the main concerns and achieving far better results than expected.
- MiniMax: They responded too late, with their stock price falling by 16% on the day of the share unlocking. Although they later made up for it with announcements about their commitment to the company, the previous upward trend helped mitigate the loss.
- Moruthread: They did no preparation and only issued a statement after the stock price hit the limit down, which was not convincing and led to a 20% drop and a significant loss in market value.
- Muxi: With the failures of the other three companies clearly visible, they are now urgently seeking公关 and investor communication professionals. Their success will depend on their ability to communicate the shareholders’ intentions and the company’s long-term plans effectively.
3. Why Is Share Unlocking More Harmful to Domestic AI Companies?
The reason why share unlocking has a greater impact on domestic AI companies is that their confidence is more fragile compared to traditional industries. For traditional companies, such as banks or liquor brands, investors have a clear understanding of their annual profits, and even if some shareholders sell, the company’s stability is assured by its actual earnings. However, domestic AI and GPU companies are associated with high expectations for domestic innovation, and their valuations are often inflated. Many of these companies do not yet have stable profits, so investors are betting on their future success. If investors doubt that the shareholders will stay committed to the company, their confidence can be easily shaken, leading to extreme stock price fluctuations.
4. The 50-Billion-Yuan Loss as a Warning
The 50-billion-yuan loss caused by Moruthread’s stock price drop serves as a stark reminder to the entire domestic AI industry. Many company leaders mistakenly believe that successful listing means they have completed all their goals. However, going public is just the beginning of a long-term challenge in the capital market. Even if a company has excellent technology and strong chip performance, failing to communicate effectively with investors and manage market expectations can result in significant losses. This incident highlights the importance of clear and consistent communication for the success of domestic AI companies.
In conclusion, for domestic AI companies, going public is not the end of their journey but the beginning of a continuous challenge in the capital market. Effective communication and management of investor expectations are essential for their long-term success.