虎嗅

A Spark in American Politics: Whether or not one reads "Das Kapital" is not important; what matters is whether it can influence U.S. policy towards China.

原文:美国政坛星星之火:读不读《资本论》不重要,能否影响美国对华政策才是关键

Summary of the Analysis

This interview provides an in-depth analysis by British scholar Ross Yi of the latest political developments in the United States. For the first time in over 70 years since the McCarthyist era of anti-communist hysteria, the U.S. Congress explicitly condemned a domestic democratic socialist organization, the DSA (Democratic Socialists of America). The real concern is not that the U.S. is becoming a socialist country, but rather that this young, left-leaning group, which has won multiple electoral districts by advocating for people's welfare, strongly opposes U.S. aggression and confrontation with China. This movement directly targets the core interests of the U.S. military-industrial complex and Silicon Valley's AI oligarchs. The political landscape in the U.S. has completely reversed: the traditional perception that the Republicans are pro-business and easy to deal with, while the Democrats use ideology to oppose China, no longer holds true. The right-wing Republicans, who are aligned with AI technology giants, have become the most staunch anti-China advocates, while the new left-wing within the Democratic Party has become the pro-war faction that is reluctant to confront China. For China's foreign policy, there is no need to worry about whether these people have read "Das Kapital" or whether they are "true socialists." The key criterion is whether they can gain power through elections and actually prevent the U.S. government from provoking China.

Detailed Explanation

1. The U.S. Congress's condemnation of "socialism" is actually an internal "witch hunt"

Many might think the U.S. is using the pretext of anti-China to stir up trouble, but this time it's different:

  • Previous condemnations of socialism were merely nominal attacks on foreign figures like Lenin and Mao Zedong; this time, the DSA, a domestic organization that is winning elections, was directly targeted, a first since the McCarthy era.
  • Why are the establishment so panicked? In the past, even when the Communist Party of the U.S. had 100,000 members, it couldn't win a single seat, so the government could claim freedom of speech without consequence. Now, with the DSA having 120,000 members and an average age of just over 30, they have been able to win mayoral elections and multiple congressional seats in major cities like New York. Even 192 Democratic legislators dared not vote in favor of condemning them, for fear of offending their base.
  • What's more absurd is that the DSA's main demands—universal free healthcare, cancellation of student loans, and affordable housing—are not even that radical. Yet they have scared the American ruling class, as they fear that these policies could cut into the oligarchs' profits.

2. The surge of young Americans supporting socialism is not due to ideological awakening but to practical necessity

During the Cold War, Americans were indoctrinated to reject communism at all costs. Now, young people are turning to socialism because of harsh realities:

  • They face huge student loan debts upon graduation and struggle to afford housing; the government spends trillions on foreign wars but nothing on domestic issues. They don't understand socialism but see it as a solution to their problems with healthcare, education, and housing costs.
  • The trend of "China-maxxing" among young Americans is also practical: they see that ordinary Chinese people don't face financial ruin due to healthcare, and they find Chinese products affordable and useful. They dismiss the government's claims that China is a threat and see the U.S. government's overseas actions as a waste of money.

3. The U.S. political landscape has completely reversed

The traditional view that Republicans are pro-business and Democrats oppose China through ideology is outdated. Now, the right-wing Republicans, aligned with AI giants, are the most anti-China, while the new left-wing within the Democratic Party is pro-war.

  • The U.S. AI giants, who once saw AI as their trump card for huge profits, have seen their monopoly shattered by Chinese competition. They are buying influencers and politicians to spread the myth that China is a threat, arguing that the U.S. public won't go to war for the oligarchs' interests.
  • In contrast, the new left-wing in the Democratic Party advocates cutting military spending and using funds for healthcare and education, opposing confrontation with China.

4. Whether the Americans understand "Das Kapital" is irrelevant for China

Ross Yi points out that it's unrealistic to expect the U.S. to become a socialist country. The key is that the DSA has shown that they can win elections without relying on oligarchic funding. A DSA candidate for the Florida Senate raised less than $1 million compared to her opponent's $16 million but still won the primary.

  • Their political platform clearly states no war with China and no unnecessary military deployments abroad. As they gain more seats, their anti-war agenda will influence Congress, just as the public forced the U.S. to withdraw from Vietnam. The public doesn't want to die for the oligarchs' interests.

5. This trend is not unique to the U.S.; Europe and America will also shift their focus to domestic issues

The rise of the left in the U.S. is 10 years behind Europe. In France, the next election may see a clash between the far-right's Le Pen and the left-wing anti-war candidate Mélenchon. In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany party has 25% support, and left-wing parties also win over 10% of the vote. This reflects public dissatisfaction with governments that have focused on expansion abroad at the expense of domestic welfare.

  • The long-term trend is a split in European and American politics, with more people demanding that governments address domestic issues like inflation, housing prices, and healthcare. Even if the U.S. remains capitalist, its foreign policy will shift from provoking conflicts to focusing on domestic issues, which is a significant strategic advantage for China.