Summary of the Key Points
This is a highly representative topic in the tech and consumer electronics sector: Over the past 25 years, Apple has never been the first to pioneer new markets. It always waits for other manufacturers to explore the potential pitfalls, educate users, and reduce supply chain costs before introducing products with superior experiences. Almost every time, Apple has managed to capture more than 70% of the market profits in those sectors, effectively “clearing the field” for itself and never losing. However, with the foldable screen market, things are different. Android manufacturers like Samsung and Huawei have been in the game for seven years, covering a wide range of price ranges from several thousand to tens of thousands of yuan. Users have already understood the pros and cons of foldable screens. Now that Apple has finally announced its entry into this market, the entire industry is curious: Will Apple be able to replicate its previous success and reshuffle the market, or will it experience a setback for the first time in a mature market, paying a late lesson?
Detailed Analysis
1. Understanding Apple’s 25-Year Success Strategy
Many people think Apple is the most technologically advanced and fastest in research and development, but that’s actually the opposite. Apple is known for not being the first to enter a market. All of its hit products have emerged after others have paved the way. For example, smartphones weren’t invented by Apple; Nokia and Dopod were already producing touchscreen smartphones around 2000, but they were still in a semi-finished state. Apple waited seven years before releasing the first iPhone, which then dominated the feature phone market. Wireless headphones weren’t either Apple’s invention. Before 2017, 9 out of 10 Bluetooth headphones on the market required a long connection time with phones, often dropped the connection after a few steps, and caused discomfort after hours of use. Apple waited until all the drawbacks of Bluetooth technology were addressed by competitors before launching the AirPods, instantly capturing 80% of the wireless headphone market profits. The same goes for smartwatches: Samsung had released them years earlier, but Apple’s Apple Watch now holds more than 70% of the global smartwatch market share, exceeding the combined sales of all traditional Swiss watch manufacturers.
In essence, Apple’s strategy is to avoid being the first to suffer: it waits until all the user pain points and supply chain issues are resolved, then launches a mature product that users don’t even realize is using new technology. This approach has never failed in the past 25 years.
2. Why the Delay in Entering the Foldable Screen Market?
It’s not that Apple lacks technology; rather, the foldable screen products from the past seven years didn’t meet Apple’s standards. Recall the earliest foldable screens: they had deep creases that could get caught under nails, screens that shattered with a slight bump, hinges that became loose after half a year of use, and system compatibility issues that made apps appear stretched or with large black borders. Apple waited until all these problems were fixed before releasing its products, ensuring a seamless user experience.
3. Can Apple Repeat Its Success This Time?
Based on past patterns, Apple has a good chance of success this time, holding three key advantages over Android manufacturers:
- Seamless ecosystem integration: With 1.8 billion active Apple device users worldwide, users are accustomed to the seamless file transfer and collaboration between iPhones, Macs, iPads, and AirPods. Apple can ensure that its foldable screen products work seamlessly with these devices, without any compatibility issues.
- Large user base: Even a 5% conversion rate from its user base would result in tens of millions of sales. Android foldable screens have only sold a total of less than 200 million units in seven years, so Apple could quickly become the market leader just by having its existing users upgrade their devices.
- Quality assurance: Apple will likely address all the common issues with foldable screens, such as virtually invisible creases, lighter weights, and better battery life, which are part of its traditional strengths.
4. Potential Challenges for Apple
However, there are three new challenges this time:
- Loss of novelty: Users have already seen foldable screens for seven years and many have used several models. They may not see a significant need to upgrade to Apple’s foldable screens unless there are substantial improvements.
- Competitive pricing: Domestic manufacturers have significantly reduced the price of foldable screens, making Apple’s products more expensive. If Apple’s foldable screens don’t offer a significantly better experience, users may not be willing to pay a higher price.
- Limited market potential: The foldable screen market has grown slowly, with annual shipments of less than 30 million units, making it a niche market that can’t support Apple’s usual market-shaking impact.
5. For Us Consumers
Whether Apple succeeds or not, we stand to benefit. Apple’s entry will boost the supply chain capacity for foldable screens, potentially reducing costs and making better products more affordable. Android manufacturers will also strive to innovate, bringing new features to more affordable prices. Regardless of Apple’s performance, we will likely see cheaper and more user-friendly foldable screens available in the market.
In summary, Apple’s strategy of waiting for the right time to enter a market has proven successful in the past, but this time, it faces unique challenges. Whether it can replicate its past success depends on how well it addresses these new challenges. Regardless, we consumers will likely benefit from the increased competition and innovation in the foldable screen market.