Summary of Key Points
This report provides a comprehensive overview of the performance of 19 listed liquor companies in the first half of 2026: The entire industry has experienced its coldest period in nearly a decade, with combined revenue declining by 17.96% and net profit by 22.46% year-over-year. Only three companies managed to achieve both increased revenue and profit, marking the first time in the industry's history that all companies have collectively hit a performance trough. Behind this overall decline lies a stark polarization: The leading company, Moutai, remains firmly in the top position, while the rankings of the second to sixth largest companies have been significantly disrupted, with intense competition. Mid-to-low-tier regional liquor companies have either managed to maintain their local markets or have been eliminated by the market. The mid-range liquor products, which target the "mid-price" segment, have all faced significant challenges. There is a great deal of disagreement within the industry regarding whether the worst has already passed. Securities firms believe that performance has hit rock bottom and is entering a stabilization phase, but retailers in the offline market hardly feel any signs of recovery, suggesting that a rapid rebound like in the past is unlikely and that the industry will instead enter a period of slow, oscillatory recovery that could last 2-3 years.
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Detailed Explanation of Key Points
1. To what extent has the liquor industry performed poorly this time?
Many people previously thought of the liquor business as a consistently profitable one, with only a few smaller companies struggling during tough times. However, this time the entire industry has suffered a significant setback, with the 19 listed companies collectively losing nearly 20 billion yuan in revenue, averaging a loss of about 1 billion yuan each. During previous industry adjustments, at least half of the companies managed to maintain both increased revenue and profit. This time, only three companies achieved this; the rest either sold more but made less (due to price increases not keeping up with costs) or sold less but made more (by canceling unprofitable orders). The problem is not with individual companies but with a fundamental shift in the industry's logic. Previously, liquor growth relied on gifts and business dinners, but these scenarios have seen a significant decline. Consumers are now more rational and no longer willing to spend unnecessarily on luxury brands. As a result, the industry has shifted from an environment where everyone could profit together to one where companies are competing for market share.
2. The traditional ranking of leading liquor companies has been completely disrupted
In the past decade, the rankings of the top liquor companies were well-known: Moutai first, Wuliangye second, Fenjiu third, and Yanghe fourth. However, the latest half-year reports show that these traditional rankings no longer hold true:
- Moutai's dominant position is unshakable; it earned more than 60% of the total profits of all 19 listed companies, and its revenue exceeded the combined revenue of the second to seventh places. Other companies are far behind.
- The gap between the second and third places is the smallest in over a decade. Wuliangye's once substantial lead over Fenjiu has narrowed to just 7.4 billion yuan. This is because Wuliangye's main products, which are used for business dinners, have been hit hard by the current market downturn. Fenjiu, on the other hand, relies on its affordable products for everyday consumption and wedding occasions, which continue to be in demand, giving it stronger resilience. The competition between Wuliangye and Fenjiu for the second place is likely to intensify in the coming years.
- The competition among the fourth to sixth places is fierce. The revenues of Yanghe, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu are within 500 million yuan of each other. However, their situations are very different: Yanghe previously relied on pushing products to distributors to boost performance, but now it has even lost market share to local companies in its home region of Jiangsu. Luzhou Laojiao is sticking to its core product, Guojiao 1573, even at the expense of sales, to maintain its brand value. Gujing Gongjiu has reoriented its resources to focus on its home market in Anhui and is therefore the most likely to emerge from the downturn first.
3. The survival of smaller liquor companies is at stake
During better times, many regional companies aimed to expand beyond their home regions. Now, being able to maintain their local markets is considered a major success. Many companies that tried to expand have failed: Three regional companies from the northwest, as well as Yilite from Xinjiang and Tianyoude from Qinghai, have seen their revenues halved or even led to near-delisting due to competition from Moutai and Wuliangye. Local companies in Anhui, such as Kouzijiao and Jinzongzi, have also seen significant revenue declines. In contrast, two previously less prominent companies, Jinshiyuan and Yingjia Gongjiu from Anhui, have managed to turn things around by focusing on their local markets and have even surpassed Yanghe in revenue in Jiangsu.
4. Consumer preferences have changed significantly
Consumers now prefer a "dumbbell-shaped" spending pattern, with most buying either the most expensive brands like Moutai and Wuliangye for special occasions or affordable brands for everyday use. The mid-range products, which were once popular for business dinners and gifts, are now largely unsold. Many companies that invested heavily in the mid-range market have suffered, with Shede Liquor experiencing two consecutive years of declining performance and Waterjingfang losing nearly half of its sales. Some companies, such as Jiuguijiu, have found new opportunities by collaborating with retail brands to offer more affordable products, resulting in increased profits despite overall revenue declines.
5. A major divide within the industry
There is a significant disagreement about whether the industry has hit bottom. Securities firms believe performance has peaked and is stabilizing, but retailers in the offline market see no signs of recovery. The liquor index on the stock market has dropped by 6% in the past month, and many dealers report that sales of other companies, except for Moutai, are no different from those during the off-season. The traditional中秋 peak season has not seen the usual rush to place orders. The reason for this disagreement is that while financial indicators suggest that performance has hit a low, real consumer demand has not yet returned. In the past, the liquor industry could quickly recover from downturns due to business consumption, but this time, consumer habits have changed, and there will be no significant rebound. The industry will instead take 2-3 years to digest excess inventory and enter a new normal of slower growth. The days of easy profits for liquor companies are over.