Summary of the Key Points
After seven years in development, Apple has finally released its first foldable iPhone, the iPhone Duo, with a price starting at 15,999 yuan in the Chinese market, which has completely changed people's perception of smartphone prices. Following the launch, the A-share market saw a frenzy of speculation around "Apple foldable screen concept stocks." However, the reality is that most of the companies that jumped on the bandwagon will not earn much profit and may not even have the supply rights. The real impact of Apple's entry goes far beyond selling just a few million new phones; it has essentially raised the price ceiling for the entire foldable screen industry, turning what was once a niche market into one of the few areas in the global consumer electronics sector where both upstream and downstream companies can benefit significantly.
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Detailed and Easy-to-Understand Explanation
1. Apple's Late Entry (7 Years Later) Turns the Foldable Screen from a Niche Product into a Market Driver
Many people don't realize that Samsung released the first foldable screen in 2019. Android manufacturers spent seven years refining the hinge, folding mechanism, and weight of foldable phones, but these devices still only account for 2% of the global smartphone shipments. In simple terms, foldable phones never really became popular, and only a few tech enthusiasts were willing to pay a high price for the novelty.
The smartphone market has long been stagnant: the average replacement cycle for consumers has increased from two years to three to four years, and the profits from low-end phones are extremely thin, leaving manufacturers struggling to find new growth points. With Apple's entry, analysts predict that global foldable screen shipments could increase by 20% by 2026, with Apple alone accounting for 25% of the market share, second only to Samsung and ahead of Huawei. Shipments are expected to double by 2027.
Apple's role is not just to sell more phones; it has also established the foldable screen as a legitimate market trend. Consumers who were previously hesitant, suppliers afraid to expand production, and investors cautious about investment have all been influenced by Apple's affirmation that foldable screens are the future. This has transformed a niche market into a new growth opportunity for the entire industry.
2. Don't Rush to Buy Stocks Just Because of the "Apple Supply Chain" Term
The two most discussed companies in the A-share market, Lingzhi Manufacturing and Lens Technology, seem to be Apple's foldable screen suppliers, but their profit models are very different:
Lingzhi Manufacturing has secured orders for core components such as hinges, screen support plates, and ultra-thin cooling plates. Previously, they only sold a few small parts for regular iPhones, but now they supply several high-value components for foldable phones, significantly increasing their profit margin. Lens Technology, on the other hand, has not officially confirmed its supply to Apple's foldable phones and only vaguely mentioned supplying ultra-thin glass and screen films to "international customers." Its revenue for the first half of this year was nearly 30 billion yuan, but its net profit was only 577 million yuan, a nearly 50% decrease from the same period last year. Even if it does get orders from Apple, the initial increase in revenue might not be enough to cover its costs. The rumors that Lens Technology exclusively supplies Apple's screens are unfounded.
3. Jumping on the "Foldable Screen Concept" Does Not Guarantee Profit
Many companies in the A-share market, such as Yi'an Technology, Jingyan Technology, Dongmu Shares, and Changying Precision, are trying to benefit from the foldable screen trend. However, none of them can confidently claim to supply Apple directly. Many of these companies are secondary or even tertiary suppliers. Apple's orders first go to the top-tier suppliers, who then subcontract smaller parts. These companies may only be involved in producing small components like screws or metal sheets for the hinges, and they may not even know if their parts are used in the final iPhone. The profits are often taken by the earlier suppliers. For example, a company called Furong Technology was mistakenly included in the list of Apple foldable screen suppliers, but it was later clarified that it was not part of Apple's supply chain. The stock market can create hype around concepts, but a company's profits are based on actual orders. Stocks that rise due to speculation are likely to return to their previous levels.
4. Apple's True Strategy is to Drive Up Prices for the Entire Industry
Many people wonder why Apple priced the iPhone Duo so high at 15,999 yuan. It's not because the components are twice as expensive as those in regular flagship phones; rather, the smartphone market has reached a plateau in terms of performance and screen quality, and consumers are less willing to pay high prices. Foldable phones offer a unique selling point: they can be folded, have larger screens, use titanium metal, and feature advanced hinge technology. By setting such a high price, Apple is testing consumer acceptance. If consumers are willing to pay this much for a foldable phone, other manufacturers (such as Samsung, Huawei, and Honor) can also increase their prices. This shifts the profit margin for the entire foldable screen industry, benefiting not just Apple's suppliers.
5. Don't Celebrate Too Soon: The Supply Chain's Profitability Is Uncertain
The supply chain for Apple products is not a guaranteed moneymaker. Apple is known for its strong bargaining power, and suppliers must invest heavily in new equipment and capacity to secure orders. Even if they receive orders, they face competition from other suppliers and pressure to lower prices. Profitability depends on several factors: whether they can secure essential components, the value of their supplies, the share of the market they hold, and the net profit after deducting all costs. Since foldable phones currently account for only 2% of global smartphone sales, and the iPhone Duo is still a luxury product for a niche market, any initial profits might not be sustainable if consumers reject the high price. Only when foldable phones become more widely accepted and sell in large quantities will the entire supply chain truly benefit.
In summary, Apple's entry has transformed the foldable screen industry into a new growth opportunity, but the benefits are not limited to its suppliers. The real impact is that it has set the price benchmark for the entire industry, potentially leading to higher profits for all companies involved. However, the path to sustained profitability is still uncertain and depends on various factors.