Summary in Plain Language
The star of this event is the Apple iPhone Duo, the first foldable smartphone that Apple has been working on for nearly 20 years. With a starting price of 15,999 yuan, it has seen prices soar to nearly 10,000 yuan through scalping even before its official release, with over 500,000 users pre-ordering it. Just a few days before Apple’s launch, Xiaomi and Huawei also unveiled their latest high-end foldable phones, while Samsung openly criticized Apple for “reusing technology we’ve been working on for seven years.”
Behind this event lies the most unusual situation in the smartphone industry: traditionally, as new technologies become more widespread, prices should decrease. However, after eight years of development in foldable screens, the industry is not only reluctant to lower prices to boost sales but is instead raising them even more, with even the prices of older, non-foldable iPhones increasing. The fundamental reason is that consumers’ replacement cycles have extended to around four years; their existing phones still perform well after three to four years, and the upgrade in specifications of regular smartphones is not enough to motivate them to switch. Manufacturers are therefore turning to foldable screens as a “new format” to push up prices and target high-net-worth users first. However, these high-priced foldable phones, driven by novelty, are not currently sufficient to drive growth for the entire industry.
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Detailed Analysis
1. Pre-ordering for nearly 10,000 yuan before even seeing the product? It’s about social status, not performance
The demand for the iPhone Duo is quite extraordinary: more than a month before the official release, prices on platforms like Xianyu (a Chinese auction website) had already reached 99,000 yuan, with typical price increases of 1,000 to 5,000 yuan. Over 560,000 people pre-ordered the phone, most of whom had never even touched a real unit. The scarcity of the product drove up its value before it was even available. Many people find it puzzling: for 15,999 yuan, you only get 256GB of storage, whereas a similar price for a domestic foldable phone would offer 2TB of storage plus additional accessories. Why would someone pay so much more? The truth is that those who pre-ordered did not consider the cost-performance ratio. This is Apple’s first foldable phone in 20 years, and owning one signifies that you’re among the first to use the latest technology. This sense of exclusivity and novelty is what digital influencers refer to as “social currency”—it’s more than just a phone; it’s a high-end status symbol. For those who can afford it, this value far outweighs the extra storage.
2. The entire industry goes against common sense: foldable screens have been around for eight years, yet prices are rising instead of falling
Contrary to past trends, where new technologies initially cost more but become cheaper as supply chains mature, foldable screens are becoming more expensive. Industry analysts predict that the average wholesale price of foldable screens will increase by 18% by 2026. Currently, 60% of foldable phones cost over $1,600 (about 11,700 yuan), and this proportion is expected to rise. Why do manufacturers choose high prices when they could sell more units at lower prices? The reason is that the prices of regular smartphones have reached a ceiling. Selling a phone for 8,000 yuan while others sell it for 7,000 yuan doesn’t significantly differ in user experience, so consumers are unwilling to pay more for minor improvements in performance or photography. Foldable screens offer a new opportunity to push prices above the usual range. By setting a high starting price, Apple is signaling to the industry that foldable phones are not for the masses but for a niche market, and all companies are agreeing to maintain high prices to avoid price competition.
3. A shift towards “normal” screen sizes
The new Xiaomi Mi Mix Fold and Apple iPhone Duo have similar sizes: they are about 5.4 inches when folded and 7.6 inches when unfolded, which is much smaller than earlier foldable models. This change reflects user feedback. Many large-screen foldable phones were initially designed to be used like tablets, but users realized that most of them were not used in that way. The current trend is for more “moderate” sizes that are comfortable to hold and use in daily life, with the folding feature only coming into play when needed.
4. The industry’s desperation: trying to avoid price competition by focusing on unique features
The difficulty in the smartphone market is evident in the long replacement cycles of consumers. Old flagship phones from three to four years ago are still sufficient for basic tasks, and new models with improved chips or cameras barely motivate buyers to upgrade. IDC predicts a 16.7% drop in global smartphone shipments by 2026, but total sales will increase by 6.3%. Manufacturers are turning to foldable screens as a way to maintain revenue by increasing the price of each unit. Foldable screens offer a visible difference from regular phones, allowing them to charge higher prices and target a specific market segment without competing on price.
5. Foldable screens as a last resort
The industry’s reliance on foldable screens reflects its struggle to sell phones. With longer replacement cycles, consumers are less motivated to upgrade. Manufacturers are trying to distinguish their products with unique features, hoping that the novelty of foldable screens will drive sales. However, foldable screens alone cannot revive the entire industry. They are merely a temporary solution to the industry’s challenges. Once the initial excitement fades, manufacturers will still need to find new ways to attract consumers to upgrade their phones.