Summary in Plain Language
This article analyzes a typical "conceptual speculation farce" that occurred on the A-share market in September 2026, before and after Apple's release of its first foldable iPhone. Lingyi Manufacturing, rumored to be a key supplier for Apple's foldable screen, saw its stock price soar almost to the daily limit within 10 minutes, but by the end of the day, it had lost two-thirds of that gain, closing only up 3.22%.
Behind this event lie three industry truths that most people overlook:
1. The capital market, which speculates on expectations, operates on a completely different time scale than the physical manufacturing industry. A stock price movement that can happen in 10 minutes may take a factory one to two years to realize.
2. Foldable phones have completely changed the cost structure of the smartphone industry. In the past, most of the profit came from chips, but now half of the cost is spent on the "foldable mechanical structures," which happens to be an area where Chinese manufacturing is highly skilled.
3. Among the dozens of companies listed as having Apple foldable screen-related concepts, 90% are merely riding on the hype. Only a few have actually received confirmed orders from Apple. The future of the foldable screen industry does not depend on the applause at the launch event; it depends on the factories' ability to gradually increase production capacity quarter by quarter.
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Detailed Explanation
1. The 10-minute stock price surge: A "time difference scam" between the stock market and the real economy
Many retail investors buy into companies when they hear about hot news, not realizing the speed difference between the two markets. The stock market anticipates all the positive factors for the future (even for half a year or a year) in just 10 minutes, but the progress of the manufacturing industry is much slower. For example, due to Apple's strict quality requirements, the initial daily production capacity for this foldable iPhone is only a few hundred units, with a maximum of 500,000 to 1 million units produced in the entire third quarter, compared to 20 million to 22 million units for the regular iPhone 18 Pro. This means that funds have essentially locked in orders for the next one to two years in just 10 minutes. If orders are fulfilled more slowly, investors will suffer losses. The market on that day confirmed this: Lingyi Manufacturing's stock price, which almost reached the limit, only rose by 3.22%, while the A-share foldable screen concept index fell by 0.72%. Even Apple's own stock price dropped by 0.28% after the launch, indicating that investors are not naive and quickly move on from the hype.
2. Foldable screens change the profit model of smartphones
In the past, the most expensive parts of smartphones were chips and cameras, with semiconductor-related components accounting for most of the cost. However, with foldable screens, the screen and hinge components now account for half of the total cost. The hinge is a new component not found in traditional phones, adding an additional $700 to $1,050 per unit. The value of UTG (Ultra-Thin Glass) used in foldable screens is 8 to 15 times that of regular glass, while the proportion of high-value components like chips and cameras has decreased. This shifts the focus of the industry from silicon-based chips to mechanical components, an area where Chinese consumer electronics manufacturers have decades of experience and a competitive advantage.
3. Be cautious of concept stocks: Getting on the list is easy, but getting Apple orders takes years
There are dozens of companies listed as having foldable screen-related concepts, ranging from small companies transitioning from other industries to those that previously supplied Android devices. Since September, billions of yuan have been invested in these stocks. Many investors think they can easily profit, but most have not even received any orders from Apple. For example, BOE, a leading screen supplier, was not among the initial suppliers for this iPhone foldable; the hinge orders were mainly taken by foreign companies like Anfeno in the U.S. and Shin Nihon Shinko in Taiwan. Apple's certification process for suppliers involves years of testing and strict confidentiality agreements, so stock prices do not rise immediately after news breaks. Some concept stocks have doubled in value within a year, while others have dropped by 30%. The difference lies in whether they have actual orders; those just riding on the hype will likely see their prices return to where they started.
4. Chinese suppliers have taken on the challenging parts
Although the most valuable components (screens and hinges) are supplied by foreign companies, Chinese suppliers have secured the harder-to-get parts. For instance, Lingyi Manufacturing holds a large share of the small precision parts in the hinge; Lens Technology controls 70% of UTG processing; Pengding Holdings owns 70% of the flexible circuit boards for foldable screens. Chinese manufacturers also supply the equipment needed for production, such as bonding, polishing, and testing tools. These components may not be the most valuable per unit, but they require decades of expertise and millions of tests to achieve high quality, making it difficult for new players to enter the market. Some of these companies have net profit margins of over 11%, significantly higher than the 3% to 5% of traditional phone assembly companies.
5. The future of foldable screens depends on production capacity
Before Apple's announcement, global foldable phone shipments fell by 21.6% in the first half of 2026, leading many to believe the industry was on the decline. However, Apple's announcement boosted industry shipments by 30% for the year, and Apple increased its production target from 7 million to 10 million units. While some predict a surge in sales, others argue that foldable screens will struggle to gain market share. The difference lies in the perspective: pessimists focus on short-term production issues, while optimists see long-term potential. If foldable screens account for more than 20% of global smartphone shipments, the industry could see a significant increase in revenue. The myth of "tenfold growth in a year" is unrealistic. The real profits will go to companies that patiently improve production quality and follow Apple's production process. The stock price bubble created by short-term speculation will not last.