Summary of the Analysis
This article, written by a renowned Norwegian economist, breaks away from the traditional notion that trade is merely about the exchange of physical goods. It uses the real-world example of China and Norway as complementary trading partners to illustrate the global shift in trade from selling individual products to providing comprehensive, long-term solutions. China’s shipbuilding capacity and Norway’s advanced marine systems, along with China’s electric vehicle manufacturing capabilities and Norway’s mature new energy market, demonstrate this trend. The author argues that traditional trade statistics, which only account for physical goods, fail to reflect the true value exchange. The conclusion is clear: attempting to protect trade through barriers and protectionism is futile. Only by collaborating and complementing each other’s strengths can countries expand the market and achieve mutual benefit.
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Detailed and Accessible Explanation
1. Modern trade is far more than just a simple exchange of goods; service is key
Many people still think of trade as a process where a factory produces a product, it passes customs, and it is sold to another country, ending the transaction there. However, the new logic of trade is different:
For instance, the marine propellers and navigation systems sold by Norwegian companies to shipowners may only account for 30% of the total value; the remaining 70% comes from the services provided over the next twenty to thirty years—continuous software updates, 24/7 remote monitoring of ship operations, and immediate troubleshooting in case of failures, ensuring the ship can operate safely at sea. This is like buying hardware with a manufacturer offering a lifetime maintenance service.
Similarly, when China sells electric vehicles to Norway, it’s not just about providing the vehicle and batteries; the subsequent updates to the vehicle’s software, integration with the local charging network, and maintenance throughout the battery’s life cycle are the most valuable parts. Modern trade is about providing a reliable outcome, not just the tangible hardware.
2. The cooperation between China and Norway exemplifies the optimal model of new trade
China and Norway, despite being thousands of kilometers apart and having almost no overlapping industries, combine their strengths to create a synergistic effect:
China’s advantage lies in its massive industrial capacity, with the shipbuilding industry leading the world in production volume, cost control, delivery speed, and quality. Its electric vehicle market is also highly competitive, with products that have passed rigorous market tests.
Norway’s advantage comes from its challenging maritime environment, which tests the durability of marine systems. Its high penetration of electric vehicles (96% of new cars in 2025) provides a natural testing ground for new energy solutions. By combining these strengths, the two countries offer a comprehensive solution that is hard to match anywhere else.
3. The trade surplus/deficit figures we see are often misleading
In the past, customs only counted the value of physical goods crossing borders. For example, if China exported an empty ship hull and Norway exported a navigation system, those transactions would be recorded separately. However, the invisible elements—such as the software, maintenance services, and global software—were not included. The actual trade value could be several times higher if these factors were considered.
In 2025, the bilateral trade volume between China and Norway was $11.4 billion, but if the value of these invisible services and technologies were included, the true trade volume would be much larger. The so-called trade deficits may actually reflect the value of long-term services provided by China to Norway.
4. Attempting to protect trade with tariffs is counterproductive
In the past, tariffs could be used as a barrier. But today, what’s being traded is complex technology and services that cannot be easily replaced. Tariffs would not stop the flow of these valuable elements and could damage the trust between countries. If one country imposes tariffs, it may discourage long-term cooperation, leading to significant losses in the event of failures at sea.
5. The future of trade relies on combining strengths
No country can produce the best ships or electric vehicles on its own. The key to competitiveness is finding partners with complementary strengths to provide comprehensive, reliable solutions. Collaborating to leverage each other’s advantages is essential for success. Trying to control everything domestically will only limit future opportunities for cooperation.
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In summary, the article highlights that modern trade is about providing long-term value and solutions, not just physical goods. The example of China and Norway shows how different countries can complement each other’s strengths to create a competitive advantage. The traditional approach to trade statistics fails to capture the true value exchange, and trying to protect trade through barriers is counterproductive. The future of trade lies in collaborating to meet customer needs with comprehensive, high-quality solutions.