Summary in Plain Language
This report exposes three “abnormal truths” about Apple’s recent autumn launch: First, the company that once redefined the smartphone industry with the iPhone is now releasing its first foldable phone after nearly a decade of development, a technology that Chinese Android manufacturers had already mastered six years earlier, turning it from an innovator into a follower. Second, this launch was not just about introducing a new product; it was essentially a “power transition ceremony” as Tim Cook stepped down after 15 years as CEO. The foldable phone, which took 10 years to develop, serves as Cook’s “retirement gift” to support the new leader. Third, no one was impressed by Apple’s launch—both ordinary consumers, domestic smartphone manufacturers, and the global capital markets were unimpressed. Chinese netizens criticized the lack of innovation and the high price of the foldable phone, which was even more expensive than gold. Apple’s stock price did not rise, and six institutions have already issued a “sell” rating for the company. The once “tech powerhouse” no longer has the ability to generate excitement among investors.
Detailed Analysis in Five Dimensions
1. The Launch Was Really About the Transfer of Power
Many thought the focus of the launch was on the foldable phone, but the real highlight was Cook’s retirement. Over the past 15 years, Cook has turned Apple’s market value from $350 billion to over $4 trillion and quadrupled its revenue by adopting a cautious approach: avoiding risky new technologies and waiting for market validation before leveraging Apple’s brand to maximize profits. This strategy has led to criticism that Apple has been too conservative. Now, Cook is presenting the foldable phone, a product that took 10 years to develop, to the new CEO, Tim Cookson, as a way to support his transition.
2. Apple’s Foldable Phone: Copying Technology Developed by Android for Years
Apple’s first foldable phone, the iPhone Duo, is essentially a case of an “excellent student” copying others’ work at a high price. Chinese manufacturers had already introduced features like under-screen cameras, optimized hinges, and split-screen functionality in 2020, and companies like Huawei and Xiaomi have since advanced these technologies significantly. Apple’s late entry, along with the removal of key features like a telephoto lens and the replacement of Face ID with side fingerprint recognition, has led analysts to criticize the product as a cut-down version. Its only advantages are Apple’s own chips, titanium hinges, and ecosystem compatibility. However, the price of $15,999 to $26,499 is nearly twice that of similar Chinese foldable phones, leading to ridicule from consumers.
3. Global Disinterest in Apple’s “New Story”
Previously, Apple’s launches would boost stock prices regardless of the product. This time, however, the opposite happened: six institutions issued a “sell” rating for Apple, and its stock price fell 0.28% on the day of the launch. In the Chinese stock market, stocks related to foldable phones plummeted. The hype around the concept of foldable phones had faded, and investors were not impressed by Apple’s offerings.
4. Domestic Manufacturers Are Unafraid of Apple
Previously, domestic manufacturers avoided Apple’s launches to avoid competing with them. This time, they all held their launches in September, with Huawei and Xiaomi releasing their foldable phones before Apple, demonstrating their confidence in their products. Chinese manufacturers’ foldable phones are not only cheaper but also offer better features. With the increasing price gap between Apple’s and domestic phones, consumers can get more comprehensive devices for less money.
5. Can the New CEO Bring Disruptive Innovation?
The new CEO, Tim Cookson, comes from a technical background and played a key role in Apple’s transition to self-developed chips. However, there are doubts about his ability to bring disruptive innovation. He has mainly focused on optimizing existing products and has never led major innovations like the iPhone. With Apple now following Android’s lead in foldable and AI technologies, the question is whether he can steer the company away from its conservative approach and create new products that will lead the next decade.