第一财经

Startup claims capitalization in the robotics sector is raising doubts about "pump-and-dump" schemes and inflated revenues.

原文:创业公司称机器人赛道资本化,质疑“攒局型”创业、收入有水分

Robot Industry "Infighting"? Mech-Mind CEO Slams Competitors, Revealing a Corner of the "Bubble" in the Intelligent Devices Sector

Recently, a rather significant "scandal" has erupted within the robot industry. Shao Tianlan, the founder of Mech-Mind, posted several remarks on his social media account, sharply criticizing the current IPO (Initial Public Offering) frenzy in the robotics sector, particularly in the field of embodied intelligence. He not only pointed out the industry's chaotic situation but also directly named his competitor, Galaxy General.

As a financial journalist, I have carefully analyzed the logic behind this controversy. This is not just a mere battle of words between companies but also a profound reflection on the commercialization challenges, capital bubbles, and the standards for going public in the "embodied intelligence" industry.

Here is a comprehensive breakdown of the event:

1. The Core Conflict: Who Is Treating Venture Capital Like the Stock Market?

In simple terms:

Shao Tianlan's main argument is that the stock market is not a place for entrepreneurs to raise money but for investors to get returns. Many robotics companies are rushing to go public before they have actually made a profit or had their products widely accepted by the market (in industry terms, they haven't found their "Product Market Fit" or PMF). He compares this to a child who tries to run a marathon before learning to walk and wants to show off to the audience (investors) how impressive they are.

The phenomenon he criticizes involves companies creating fake or unsustainable revenue streams through related parties (such as data centers or rental companies they control), using these misleading figures to persuade local governments and state-owned investors, and then rushing to go public. This not only undermines the innovation ecosystem but also exploits local resources, making the capital market unhealthy.

Key Points:

  • Low Barriers to Going Public: Companies can go public as long as their story is convincing, even if they are not profitable or have no substantial business scale.
  • Lack of Responsibility: Listed companies should be accountable to the general public, not just to early-stage investors.

2. Industry Chaos: The Traps of "PPT-Driven Innovation" and "Related Party Transactions"

In simple terms:

Shao Tianlan's criticism reveals a hidden tactic within the industry. For example, a company (let's call it Company A) that is struggling to sell its robots might sign a large contract with Company B (perhaps owned by the company's owner or part of the same group) to purchase its products or provide data services. This can inflate Company A's financial statements with fake revenue and profits.

  • False Prosperity: These revenues do not come from real customers but from within the company itself. Once the company goes public, such fraudulent practices are unsustainable, leading to a collapse in stock prices.
  • Excessive Hype Over Substance: Many companies focus on making big announcements, such as launching new robots or securing major partnerships, but there is often little actual implementation.
  • Dependence on State-Owned Assets: Companies seek support from local governments and state-owned investors to meet listing requirements. If these companies fail, it is the state-owned assets and local credibility that are at risk.

Why is this dangerous?

If these "bubble companies" go public, it can distort the entire market's valuation system. Investors may mistakenly believe the robotics industry is highly profitable when most companies are still losing money.

3. The Direct Confrontation: Mech-Mind vs Galaxy General

In simple terms:

The controversy was sparked when Shao Tianlan directly criticized Galaxy General in the comment section of his post. Although he did not provide specific accusations, it is clear he was referring to Galaxy General's alleged use of fake revenues or excessive hype.

  • Galaxy General's Response: Galaxy General responded calmly and professionally, publishing an article titled "Embodied Intelligence Is a Long-Distance Race," emphasizing their commitment to sustainable development and showcasing their achievements, such as product deployments in industries like manufacturing, retail, and pharmacies, as well as two years of stable operations.
  • Mech-Mind's Strength: Mech-Mind went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 1st. Although its stock price has fluctuated since then, its prospectus shows revenue growth from 181 million in 2023 to 389 million in 2025, with a gross margin increasing from 39% to 64.6%. Although it is still in the red (losing 360 million in 2025), its business is genuine, and its growth is evident.

Comparison:

  • Mech-Mind: Focuses on "hard technology" and real business operations. Despite losses, it has a clear revenue structure and a high gross margin, indicating competitive products.
  • Galaxy General: Established just two years ago (in 2023) but valued at over 20 billion yuan, with investors including state-owned capital and VCs. This combination of high valuation and short history raises doubts about the solidity of its business.

Note: Neither company has responded further, so the "underground battle" may continue. However, it highlights the industry's internal disagreements about what constitutes a successful company.

4. Market Reality: The Queue for IPOs on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the "Market Dream Ratio"

In simple terms:

Why are so many robotics companies rushing to go public? Because they are running out of money or want to cash in on the current market boom.

  • IPO Boom: Half of this year, 10 robotics-related companies went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with another 16 in the queue, and many more are applying under confidentiality agreements. This indicates a desire to catch the "last train."
  • Excessive Valuations: Many embodied intelligence companies are valued based on "market dream ratios" rather than actual profitability. Investors are betting on the future, not on current performance.
  • Profitability Challenges: Industry experts agree that the embodied intelligence sector is still in its early stages, with few companies generating actual profits. Most are simply burning money to buy time until a technological breakthrough.

Risk Warning:

If the secondary market (stock market) realizes these companies' underperformance, stock prices will plummet, affecting the valuations of early-stage investors (VCs/PEs). This could make it even harder for unlisted companies to raise funds and may even lead to their collapse.

5. The Future Outlook: Moving From "Storytelling" to "Performance-Based Evaluation"

In simple terms:

Shao Tianlan's remarks signal a shift in the industry from rapid, unregulated growth to a more rational phase.

  • Impact of Leading Companies Going Public: Companies like Yushu Technology setting a clear valuation benchmark. Investors will start asking: "How many robots have you sold? How much profit did each one generate? What is the customer repurchase rate?"
  • The Stock Market as a Reality Check: The stock market will value companies based on real data. Companies that rely on hype will see their stock prices fall. This pressure will push entrepreneurs to focus more on their actual business rather than just their marketing materials.
  • Long-Termism Prevails: Both Galaxy General and Mech-Mind emphasize the importance of sustainable growth and real customer needs. Only companies that address user problems and have stable cash flows will succeed in the long run.

In summary:

This controversy is not just about mutual disdain among competitors but a necessary part of the industry's maturation process. It serves as a reminder to all participants and investors:

1. Don't Believe in High Valuations: A valuation of 20 billion yuan does not equate to 20 billion yuan in value.

2. Focus on Real Business: Evaluate the source of revenue, the health of the gross margin, and customer loyalty.

3. Be Cautious of Related Party Transactions: These can reveal whether a company is creating a false facade.

For the general public, if you are interested in robotics stocks, consider factors like revenue growth rates, gross margins, and the speed of reducing losses, rather than relying on grandiose claims. In the capital market, real financial performance is the ultimate proof of a company's strength.