The Industry Transformation Behind Unitree Technology's Market Value Halving: From "Showoff" to "Real Work" – A Moment of Clarity for the Robotics Industry
Hello everyone, I'm your financial journalist. Recently, there's been a significant event in the financial world that many technology enthusiasts have probably heard about: Unitree Technology's market value has dropped from its peak of 444.9 billion yuan at the time of its initial public offering to below 200 billion yuan in just over 20 days.
This is more than just a numerical change; it's a strong signal that the bubble logic in the humanoid robotics industry – where the value of a company seemed to rise as long as it followed Unitree's success – has completely burst. In the past, it was believed that as long as a company could create a robot that could dance or do acrobatics, it would have significant influence in the capital markets. But now, capital has become much more pragmatic: “Just being able to dance isn't enough; the robot must be able to work in factories and save costs for businesses before it can command a high valuation.”
Today, we'll break down the logic behind this industry shakeup in simple terms and explore the implications of these four to five key changes.
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1. Unitree's Highlights and Weaknesses: Fast Production, Low Cost, but to Whom?
First, let's look at Unitree Technology objectively. It was indeed a pioneer in China's robotics industry.
What were its core strengths?
Simply put, it combined “Chinese speed” with “extreme cost-effectiveness.” In the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region, particularly the Yangtze River Delta, a well-established robotics supply chain had developed. Factories that previously produced parts for new energy vehicles and smartphones could easily modify their production to make motors and reducers for robots. This “3-hour delivery cycle” allowed Unitree to produce robots quickly at very low costs.
- Comparison: Unitree’s G1 robot is priced between $16,000 and $21,600 overseas, while similar products from American competitors can cost hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars. This reflects the strength of China’s supply chain.
So why did its value drop? Where did the problem lie?
The issues stemmed from to whom it sold its products and its competitive advantages.
- Single customer base: According to its prospectus, 73.6% of Unitree’s humanoid robot revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 came from universities and research institutions. In other words, for every 100 yuan worth of robots sold, 74 yuan went to researchers and educators. These customers purchased them mainly for research and demonstration purposes, not for mass production and profit generation.
- Lack of repeat business and scale: Universities might buy a robot for research but are unlikely to make bulk purchases and generate continuous revenue like factories.
- No hardware barriers: Since the supply chain is open, other companies could also produce similar robots, making Unitree’s hardware less unique. When everyone could make dancing robots, price competition became inevitable, reducing its premium value.
In summary: Unitree demonstrated that Chinese companies could produce affordable robots, but it hadn’t proven that these robots could generate sustainable profits through practical applications. Capital no longer valued stories; it focused on cash flow.
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2. A Major Shift in Industry Trends: From Performing on TV Shows to Working in Factories
Previously, the key performance indicators for robotics companies were whether they could perform flawlessly on TV shows or do complex acrobatics. Now, the new indicators are whether robots can work tirelessly in factories and maintain extremely low error rates.
More and more robotics companies are becoming realistic, realizing that the real market lies in factories, which are the sole test of a robot’s practicality.
- Xingdong Ji Yuan (Logistics Sorting): This company focuses on logistics. Why logistics? Because the environment is harsh (no air conditioning, loud noise, night shifts), and humans are reluctant to do this work, but robots can. Logistics has clear metrics: how many items can be sorted per hour, and with what accuracy? It has already become a regular part of SF Express and China Post’s logistics operations, achieving an efficiency of 1,200 items per hour with over 95% accuracy. This demonstrates “Product Market Fit” (PMF), proving the practical value of the robots.
- Zhiyuan Robotics (Precision Assembly): It has entered automobile parts factories for precision assembly and quality inspection. This is much more challenging than dancing, as factories require high precision; a single mistake can lead to accidents. Zhiyuan is developing an “intelligence” system to improve robot performance from 46% to 78%, showing continuous improvement.
- Xiaoyu Zhizao (Welding): Specializes in welding robots, a dirty and labor-intensive task with specific precision requirements. Its robots are already in use in several top-tier factories.
The core logic: Only by entering real industrial scenarios can robots create value by replacing human labor. This value is quantifiable, and investors are interested in tangible returns, not abstract concepts.
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3. Reconstructing Valuation Logic: Figure AI vs Unitree – Which is More Valuable and Why?
Here’s a fascinating comparison that helps understand current industry valuations:
- Unitree Technology: Expected to ship about 5,500 robots in 2025, with a market value of less than 200 billion yuan.
- Figure AI (USA): Expected to ship only about 150 robots (1/36 of Unitree’s volume), but with a valuation of $39 billion (about 269.1 billion yuan), higher than Unitree’s.
Why does a smaller shipment result in a higher valuation?
Because Figure AI sells software and services, not just hardware.
- Unitree’s approach: It is a hardware manufacturer; selling a robot is a one-time transaction.
- Figure AI’s approach: It is a SaaS (Software as a Service) company, focusing on its self-developed “Helix” model that enables robots to understand, plan, and execute complex tasks.
What does Wall Street think of Figure AI?
They don’t focus on the number of robots produced but on how many jobs they can replace.
- Example: Figure 02 was used in BMW factories, participating in the production of over 30,000 X3 vehicles, running for 1,250 hours with an accuracy rate of over 99%.
- Pricing: Wall Street values Figure AI’s service revenue rather than the number of robots shipped. This means that as long as Figure AI’s robots can work stably in BMW factories, it can generate continuous revenue, similar to subscribing to Netflix.
Conclusion: The market is redefining the value of robotics companies. Hardware is just the entry ticket; the “intelligence” (AI models and practical application capabilities) determine the true value. Those that can make robots truly intelligent will control the future.
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4. Chinese Companies’ Responses: Shifting from Manufacturing Hardware to Developing Intelligence
Seeing Figure AI’s success, Chinese robotics companies have quickly adjusted their strategies. They are all working towards one goal: to develop intelligent systems and transform from hardware manufacturers into intelligent companies.
- Unitree Technology: Despite its declining market value, it is aware of this and plans to invest over 2 billion yuan from its IPO funds in intelligent robot research. It understands that relying solely on hardware is not sustainable and needs to shift to AI.
- Zhiyuan Robotics: It is developing a full-stack approach, combining hardware and intelligence, with its “Qiyuan” model that can control multiple robot forms. Its success in tasks like pouring water and cleaning tables shows rapid progress in AI capabilities.
- Yinhe General: Its wheeled dual-arm robots have been tested in CATL’s production lines, a benchmark in the manufacturing industry. This indicates that its technology has passed the toughest industrial tests.
Trend Analysis: China’s robotics industry is undergoing a “deflation” process. Companies that rely on flashy presentations and technical demonstrations will be eliminated. Those that focus on solving real industrial problems and improving AI capabilities will survive and thrive.
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5. The Future Outlook: Practicality Is the Key
In summary, Unitree’s market value drop highlights several important trends:
- End of scarcity: With mature supply chains and similar hardware, the focus is no longer on who can produce the cheapest robots but on who can perform best in practical applications.
- Shift in Capital Logic: Investors no longer believe in empty promises about robots ruling the world; they look at:
- Where the robots are working in factories,
- How many jobs they are replacing,
- How much cost they are saving,
- And whether they can generate continuous service revenue.
Impact on Ordinary People:
- Employment: Robots will not completely replace humans in the short term but will accelerate the replacement of repetitive, harsh, and precision-demanding jobs (welding, sorting, handling).
- Investment: When considering the robotics sector, focus on companies with real industrial applications and advancing AI models, not just on their reputation or media coverage.
In Conclusion:
Unitree’s market value drop is not a failure but a milestone in the robotics industry’s transition from a restless, showcase-oriented phase to a more pragmatic and focused one. Hardware is just the entry ticket; intelligence and practical applications determine the real value. Those that can make robots truly useful in industrial settings will be the ones that succeed in the long run. For the entire industry, this is the true path forward.