虎嗅

Qin Shuo: Don't be too pessimistic about consumption || A broader perspective

原文:秦朔:消费这件事,不用太悲观|| 大视野

Hello! I'm your financial news analysis assistant. This article is an in-depth observation by Professor Qin Shuo on the current consumer trends in China. Many ordinary people, upon hearing terms like "consumption downgrading" and "economic downturn," tend to feel anxious, thinking that everyone has stopped spending and that life will become harder to manage.

However, Professor Qin Shuo's perspective is clear: Don't be intimidated by the superficial "coldness." Consumption hasn't disappeared; it has just taken on a new form. People don't have less money; they're just spending it in a more "intelligent," "self-oriented," and "authentic" way.

Let me first summarize the key points, and then break them down into five aspects to explain the logic behind these trends in plain language.

📌 Core Content Summary

In one sentence: Chinese consumption is undergoing a profound transformation from "showing off to others" to "caring for oneself." Although constrained by macroeconomic factors such as the real estate market and employment, the overall growth rate has slowed down, the structure of consumption is undergoing a qualitative change.

Key conclusions:

1. Don't be too pessimistic: Consumption hasn't "downgraded"; it's rather "diversifying" and "evolving." People are no longer blindly pursuing luxury brands; instead, they value practicality, emotional value, and self-expression.

2. Three new trends:

  • Self-creation: For example, with 3D printing, people are moving from buying ready-made products to creating them themselves, enjoying the process of creation.
  • Companionship and healing: Activities like buying books, keeping pets, and attending exhibitions serve to relieve anxiety and provide emotional comfort.
  • Independent choice: When buying furniture or food, people no longer focus on brand prestige but on quality, craftsmanship, and value for money, seeking "honesty" and "comfort."

3. The underlying motivation: It's the human desire to treat oneself better. Under limited circumstances, people spend their money more rationally, avoiding unnecessary luxuries and only paying for genuine value.

4. A final reminder: While optimism is important, for consumption to truly surge, we need to address fundamental issues such as employment, income, and social security.

---

🔍 Deep Dive: Understanding the New Consumer Trends

1. From "Buying Goods" to "Buying Experiences": The Joy of Creating with 3D Printing

[Phenomenon]

In the past, we bought products from stores that were already made. Now, technologies like 3D printers and laser engraving machines, once reserved for geeks, are entering ordinary households and small businesses. The article mentions a small company in Jiangxi that is doing well in 3D printing consumables. Why? Because young people (even children) enjoy using 3D printers to make figurines, toys, and small parts for their homes.

[Plain Language Explanation]

This is more than just buying a machine; it's a form of self-creation.

  • Before: If I wanted a cup, I would buy one from a store.
  • Now: I have an idea, I use AI to create a model, and then the 3D printer turns it into reality. The process itself is enjoyable, giving me a sense of achievement—“I participated, I defined, I created.”
  • Why it's popular: AI makes it incredibly easy. You don't need to know complex modeling techniques; you just tell the AI what you want, and it turns it into reality. This level of immediate satisfaction and personalization is something traditional mass-produced products can't offer.
  • Business opportunity: Physical stores (like Tuozhu Technology's flagship store) have become new sources of traffic. Watching the model take shape is visually appealing and more engaging than online advertising.

2. From "Stimulating the Ego" to "Relieving Anxiety": Emotional Value as a Hard Currency

[Phenomenon]

A book called *The Courage to Be Disliked* used to sell tens of thousands of copies a year; now it sells one million. Books on mental well-being, the pet economy, AI companions, aromatherapy, meditation, and even "esoteric" items (such as tarot cards and electronic fish bowls) are all seeing significant sales growth.

**[Plain Language Explanation]

People are buying these things because of anxiety.

  • Changing mindset: In the past, people focused on "success strategies," thinking about how to make money, get promoted, and please their bosses. Now, realizing that the environment is uncontrollable and effort may not always pay off, they're turning to self-care: how to make themselves more comfortable and less anxious.
  • Spending for "security":
  • Pets: They provide a non-confrontational form of intimacy; they don't hold grudges and always love you.
  • AI companions: Always available, they don't judge you.
  • Esoteric practices: These may seem irrational, but in an uncertain world, they offer a sense of stability and comfort.
  • Core logic: People no longer need others to tell them how to succeed; they need help in relieving their anxiety. Emotional value (making you happy, relaxed, understood) is more valuable than functional value (making you stronger or richer).

3. From "Focusing on Brands" to "Focusing on Quality": Independent Choice, Rejecting Excess Prices

[Phenomenon]

At the Shanghai Home Expo, luxury Italian and French furniture, once very popular, has lost its edge to minimalist, natural, and cost-effective Nordic styles. Consumers are combining pieces from different brands and styles.

**[Plain Language Explanation]

This is de-branding and returning to reality.

  • Before: Buying furniture meant choosing a brand because it was associated with luxury.
  • Now: I don't care about the brand; I focus on the quality of the materials, the design, and the price. I might buy a Danish lamp and a Chinese-made table as long as they look good and feel comfortable.
  • Essence: Consumers are becoming smarter. They no longer pay for brand prestige or showy consumption but for authenticity—whether the product is truly good.
  • Implication for businesses: Stop with fancy marketing gimmicks; focus on making quality products at fair prices; consumers will recognize the value.

4. From "Exclusive Restaurants" to "Affordable Home Cooking": The Anti-Competitive Trend in the Food Industry

[Phenomenon]

Exclusive, fancy restaurants are becoming less popular. Instead, chefs like Chen Jinchang, who focus on using fresh ingredients and traditional cooking techniques, are more popular.

**[Plain Language Explanation]

Eating is about taste and safety.

  • Before: Dining was about socializing and showing off; the more expensive, the better.
  • Now: Dining is about enjoying the food and the quality of the ingredients and the chef's skills.
  • Trend: People prefer less, better, more authentic, and closer to home. They're willing to pay for genuine, good food.
  • Business implication: Restaurants should focus on preparing delicious food and maintaining hygiene; this is the key to long-term success.

5. Macro Perspective: Resilience Under Constraints and Future Hope

[Phenomenon: Although overall consumption growth is slow, the structure is improving. The author believes this "lack of consumer activity" is actually a good thing, as it removes inefficiencies and makes spending more rational.

[Plain Language Explanation:

  • Don't be too pessimistic: Chinese people want a better life. Even with limited funds, they'll find ways to treat themselves well. This resilience is the driving force behind consumption.
  • Constraints are a double-edged sword: In the past, easy money led to excessive spending and waste. Now, with harder times, people are more cautious and rational. This adjustment is necessary.
  • Real challenges: Although the consumption structure is improving, for a real surge in spending, we need to address macroeconomic issues like employment, income, and social security.
  • If jobs are stable, incomes grow, and social security is robust, people will be more willing to spend.
  • It's like how seawater provides more buoyancy than freshwater; when the macro environment improves, consumption will naturally increase.

💡 Tips for Ordinary People and Entrepreneurs

1. For ordinary people:

  • Don't worry: Changes in your spending habits (such as buying fewer luxury brands, more experiences, and focusing on emotions) are normal and even progressive.
  • Invest in yourself: Whether learning skills, AI, or using exercise and reading for self-improvement, these investments yield the best returns.
  • Rational spending: Avoid unnecessary luxuries and only pay for things that provide real value, a good mood, and a positive experience.

2. For entrepreneurs/businesses:

  • Be authentic: Make your products solid and your prices fair.

Provide emotional value: Can your products relieve anxiety or provide companionship?

Focus on experiences: Offline interactions and creative processes are more appealing than just selling goods.

Understand human needs: Recognize the shift from showing off to caring for oneself and offer products and services that make people feel comfortable, honest, and in control.

In conclusion: Consumption hasn't died; it's just evolving into a more mature, rational, and inwardly focused form. For businesses, this is a time to relearn about consumer behavior; for individuals, it's an opportunity to redefine what a good life means.