Hello! I'm your financial and business news analysis assistant. This report on the television industry in 2026 is packed with a lot of information and contains some counterintuitive data comparisons. Many people might think the industry is in trouble just because TV sales are declining, but upon closer inspection, it's actually a scenario where the "funeral of the old era" and the "rush of the new era" are happening simultaneously.
Let me break down this complex financial news into five key aspects in plain language to help you fully understand what's really going on in the television industry.
1. A World of Contrast: China's "Big Sale" vs the Global "Bidding War"
First, we need to dispel a misconception: the television industry hasn't collapsed as a whole; rather, there's been an extreme "regional division" and "structural differentiation."
- The Painful Clearing Out in the Chinese Market:
The numbers are quite stark: in the first eight months of 2026, TV sales in China were 8.4% lower than the previous year. Especially in 2025, sales hit a decade-low. Why? Because the Chinese TV market has entered a stage of "competitive elimination" among the top players.
- Dominance by the Big Players: The top eight brands (Hisense, TCL, Xiaomi, etc.) account for 95.7% of the market. This means if you're not one of them, you basically have no chance of survival. Konka is planning to delist, Samsung has withdrawn from China, and Huawei's sales are struggling. It's a brutal game of survival.
- Fierce Competition: Everyone is fighting over the remaining market share, leading to brutal price wars with very thin profits.
- The Re-evaluation of Value in the Global Market:
Meanwhile, the global market sold 47.12 million units in the first quarter, reaching a new high since 2020.
- Who's Buying? Mainly North America and Europe.
- What They're Buying: Large screens and high-end models. TVs over 80 inches are growing the fastest in North America, with some 98-inch models selling for up to $1,500 (about 10,000 RMB), and they're selling well.
- The Core Logic: China is clearing out excess production capacity from previous years and getting rid of low-end, small-screen models; the global market, on the other hand, is rediscovering the value of large screens and is willing to pay more for better quality and larger sizes.
In summary: The Chinese TV industry is like going on a diet and detoxification, while the global TV industry is experiencing a consumption upgrade.
2. Why Can't TVs Be Sold? It's Not Because Young People Don't Watch Them, but Because They're Too Troublesome
Many blame the fact that young people don't watch TV, but that's just the surface reason. The real reason young people (and even middle-aged people) have given up on TVs is the extremely high "transaction costs." In economic terms, watching TV is more hassle than going to work:
1. High Membership Barriers: You need memberships for both TV and mobile devices, and they don't even work together. This exploitative pricing model has deterred many users.
2. Unuser-friendly Operations: Too many ads, slow startup times, complicated interfaces, and difficult searches. In contrast, watching videos on mobile phones or using tablets is much more convenient with just a swipe of a finger.
3. Fragmented Content: In the past, the whole family would gather around the TV for shared entertainment; now, everyone has their own personalized content recommendations. TV has become a background noise, and many people have even converted their TV cabinets into bookshelves, rarely using their TVs at all.
Conclusion: TVs haven't disappeared; they've just become "unusable." When phones and tablets offer lower barriers and more personalized services, if TVs can't provide something truly unique (like the immersive experience that phones can), users will naturally choose other options.
3. The Cost Blowback: AI Takes Up Memory, Making TVs More Expensive
This is a subtle but deadly economic phenomenon: the TV industry is facing "cost-push inflation."
- AI's Impact on Resources: AI servers are very popular and require a lot of memory (DRAM) and storage (NAND). These chips are being snapped up by AI giants, driving up the cost of memory used in TVs.
- Rising Cost Proportion:
- In the past, the memory cost for a 32-inch TV was only 6%-7%; now it's risen to 15%.
- For 65-inch TVs, the memory cost has increased from 2%-3% to 10%.
- Since the screen itself already accounts for 40%-50% of the cost, manufacturers like TCL and Hisense can't pass on these increases through price cuts.
- Result: TVs have to raise prices. But since consumers already don't want to buy them due to the poor experience, the price increase only further reduces sales, creating a "stagnation" situation where prices rise and sales fall, leaving manufacturers in a difficult position.
In simple terms: It's like running a restaurant. If a popular hot pot restaurant (the AI industry) buys up all the best ingredients (memory chips), your costs double, but you can't raise prices because customers think your food isn't good, so you end up losing money or selling less.
4. The New Battlefield Abroad: From Price Competition to Trust Building
Since it's tough to compete domestically, Chinese brands (TCL, Hisense, Xiaomi, etc.) are expanding overseas. However, "price wars" are no longer the only strategy, and they can even be counterproductive.
1. Geopolitical Risks: The U.S. has sued Samsung, LG, Hisense, and TCL, accusing them of using "ACR technology" to secretly take screenshots for targeted advertising, which may violate China's National Security Law.
2. Increasing Trust Costs: Chinese brands used to rely on low prices to gain market share, but now they can't enter the high-end market with low prices and risk political scrutiny.
- Samsung's Lesson: Samsung's market share in China was only 3.62%, but after it withdrew, sales on JD.com soared by 200%. This shows that there's still demand, but the previous supply (products, services, trust) didn't match the needs.
3. New Barriers to Entry: To establish a foothold overseas, Chinese brands must build trust:
- They need to publicly promise not to collect sensitive data.
- They must undergo independent security audits.
- They must provide transparent privacy options.
- The Key Point: The future of globalization isn't about low prices; it's about trust based on data sovereignty.
5. The Future of the TV Industry: TVs as "Home AI Servers"
TVs won't disappear, but they need to transform. In the past, TVs were just displays; in the future, they will be the "home AI hubs."
Why TVs Can Be Hubs?
- They're always on (with low standby power consumption).
- They have large screens, ideal for sharing among multiple people.
- They're in the center of the living room, in a convenient location.
- They can be equipped with cameras and microphones for interaction.
To succeed, TVs need to solve four main problems:
1. Break Down Membership Barriers: TVs should allow for unified search and playback, and ideally integrate content from various platforms so users don't have to switch between multiple apps.
2. Localized Privacy: AI processing should happen locally to keep data within the device, giving users peace of mind.
3. Internet of Things: TVs should be able to control home devices like lights and air conditioning and should seamlessly connect with phones and tablets (e.g., continuing a video on a phone on the TV).
4. Create New Use Cases: TVs should go beyond just watching movies; they should also offer fitness, education, gaming, and home office functions. If a TV is just a "big phone," it's worthless; if it can serve as a center for entertainment, control, and office, then it's valuable.
Technical Trends:
- Mini LED is the mainstream technology, with expected shipments of 24.9 million units in 2026, a 87% increase.
- OLED and Micro RGB are competing for the high-end market.
- 65-75-inch screens will be the norm, with 98-100-inch models becoming a new growth point in North America.
Summary and Outlook
Advice for Consumers:
- If you're thinking about buying a TV now, don't rush into buying a low-end, small-screen model; they will only become cheaper but less useful in the future.
- If you value a good experience, look for Mini LED or OLED TVs with AI interaction and minimal or no ads.
- Be aware of the price increases due to rising memory costs. If the price is right and you have a real need, consider buying now, as future cost pressures may make TVs even more expensive.
Conclusion for Industry Observers:
The Chinese TV industry is going through a "painful transformation." The low-end market is being cleared out, and the high-end market is being restructured.
- Winners: Brands with control over the upstream supply chain (panels, chips), the ability to build trust overseas, and the capability to define "AI home scenarios" (e.g., TCL, Hisense, Samsung).
- Losers: Small and medium-sized brands that rely solely on price wars, lack core technologies, and can't address users' pain points.
In conclusion: If TVs want to survive, they can't just focus on selling the screen; they need to focus on selling a "home lifestyle" solution. Blaming young people for not watching TV is the industry's biggest form of laziness. What really needs to be reflected on is how to make TVs useful and user-friendly again.