Hello! I'm your financial analysis assistant. This article about the sudden popularity of "fresh snacks" actually reveals a very profound change in consumer trends. In the past, we bought products based on "cost-effectiveness," but now young people are focusing more on "freshness and quality."
To help you understand this better, I'll first summarize the key points and then break it down from five different perspectives.
📝 Key Points Summary
In simple terms, "fresh snacks" don't mean making snacks more expensive; instead, they are "freshly made, short-duration foods." Brands like "Jinli Men" specialize in freshly baked, marinated, and fresh foods with a shelf life of only 3-7 days, emphasizing "visible freshness" and "no additives." Although the queues are long and the average transaction price is high (45-60 yuan), this business is extremely challenging to operate: there are high losses, strict supply chain requirements, and slow expansion. The industry is still in its early stages, with an expected future market size of tens of billions, but it's unlikely that one brand will dominate. Instead, it will likely be a landscape of regional brands competing with each other.
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🔍 In-Depth Analysis: Five Aspects of "Fresh Snacks"
1. What exactly are they selling? — Not just snacks, but the "freshness of freshly made products"
Many people might think, "Isn't this just snacks with a different packaging?" But that's not the case at all. You can think of them as "freshly prepared fast food in the snack category":
- Traditional snacks: Such as instant noodles or chips, which have a shelf life of several months or even a year and rely on preservatives. You can pick them up from the supermarket shelf and eat them at home at your leisure.
- Fresh snacks: Like freshly baked bread, marinated duck necks, or freshly cut fruits, with a shelf life of only 3-7 days, often requiring them to be sold out on the same day.
Why do young people buy them?
Because people are wary of "technology and processed ingredients." In the past, buying snacks meant carefully reading the ingredient list for any unfamiliar additives. With fresh snacks, the logic is different: the short shelf life means there's no time to add unnecessary ingredients. This "natural, hassle-free" feeling precisely targets the health and safety concerns of young women aged 18-35.
2. Why have they suddenly become so popular? — Because "cheapness" is no longer a competitive advantage
In the past, people went to snack stores for "cheapness" and a wide variety. However, giants like Mingming and Wanchen Group have realized that cheapness alone is no longer enough, as everyone finds the prices similar. Fresh snacks have tapped into three main issues:
1. Trust crisis: Consumers no longer trust long-shelf-life foods and are willing to pay a premium for shorter shelf life.
2. Upgraded experience: Young people go to shopping malls not just to buy things but also to "shop around." Fresh snack stores have open kitchens where you can see the staff preparing food, offer samples, and have a pleasant atmosphere, similar to visiting a market or bakery, rather than just cold shelves.
3. Social currency: Getting a "internet-famous snack" after waiting in line for three hours is a great status symbol on social media. It's more about the experience than just eating.
In one sentence: Traditional snack stores compete on quantity and cost-effectiveness, while fresh snack stores compete on freshness and the shopping experience.
3. Who is competing in this market? — Three types of players with different strategies
There are mainly three types of players in this market, each with a different approach:
- First type: Regional native brands (like Jinli Men)
- Characteristics: They operate directly, growing slowly but steadily.
- Advantages: Excellent quality control, and each store is very profitable (monthly sales of up to 4 million yuan, with a gross margin of 35%-40%).
- Disadvantages: Slow expansion; they've only opened 30 stores in two years. Direct operation means managing each store manually, which is labor-intensive.
- Positioning: They aim to be like high-end bakeries.
- Second type: Cross-industry giants (like Juewei, Chayanyuese, and Sanzhishoushu):
- Characteristics: They leverage their existing brand influence to enter the market quickly.
- Juewei: Uses its marinated food supply chain to upgrade street vendors into larger stores, offering more varieties.
- Chayanyuese: Adds a snack section to its tea shops, taking advantage of the tea-drinking experience to sell snacks with lower costs and lower risks.
- Sanzhishoushu/Liangpinpu: Established snack brands trying to bring online traffic to physical stores.
- Advantages: High brand recognition and a strong supply chain foundation.
- Disadvantages: They still think in terms of packaged foods, which may not be suitable for freshly made, short-duration products.
- Third type: Fast-franchise models (like Jiduoquan):
- Characteristics: They rely on snack brands to rapidly expand by opening many franchises.
- Advantages: Fast growth; they opened over 100 stores in just over a year and aim to open 1,000 by next year.
- Disadvantages: The biggest challenge is quality control. Short-duration foods require precise temperature and timing, and it's uncertain whether franchises can maintain the same freshness as direct-operated stores.
4. What makes this business so challenging? — Despite the popularity, it's a demanding endeavor
Despite the long queues, as an economist, I must point out that the operational difficulties are much higher than with packaged snacks:
- Losses are critical: Unsold fresh snacks can't be stored; the average loss rate is 8%-15%, which can significantly reduce profits.
- Supply chain is a major issue: Short-duration foods can't be transported over long distances. For example, bread made in Changsha can't be sold in Shenzhen.
- Brands must build factories near major cities. Jinli Men has invested hundreds of millions in factories in Changsha, Dongguan, and Changzhou. This requires significant capital, which small players can't afford.
- Cultural preferences: Products that are popular in one region (like Jiangban duck in Changsha) may not be well-received in other regions, affecting repeat sales.
- Location dependence: Stores must be located in high-traffic areas (e.g., B1 floors of shopping malls), which are expensive and scarce. If they're in remote suburbs, the food will go to waste.
5. What will the future hold? — No one will dominate; it will be a landscape of regional leaders
According to a report by CICC, the market is expected to grow to 50-100 billion yuan with an annual growth rate of over 40%. While this sounds attractive, it's unlikely that one brand will dominate the market, similar to the tea industry.
- Why no dominant brand? The supply chain limitations prevent national brands from covering the entire country like Coca-Cola.
- Possible outcome: There will be 3-5 leading brands, each dominating their own regions.
- Competition focus: In the short term, it will be about securing good locations in shopping malls. In the medium term, it will be about supply chain efficiency and loss control. Reducing losses from 15% to 10% can increase profits significantly.
- Diversifying channels: In addition to mall stores, "in-store shops" will appear in supermarkets like RT-Mart and Hema, combining customer flow with lower rental costs.
💡 Insights for Everyone
1. If you're thinking about starting a business: Don't rush into it just because of the popularity of the queues. This business requires a lot of effort, especially in terms of supply chain management and location selection. If you don't have a strong supply chain background, be cautious.
2. As a consumer: Enjoy the freshness, but don't stock up. The best value of fresh snacks is their freshness; eat them on the same day or the next day for the best experience.
3. From an investment perspective: Focus on brands with strong supply chains, good loss control, and a dense presence in key cities. Avoid brands that expand quickly through franchises but have questionable quality control.
In summary: Fresh snacks are a result of consumer upgrades. They sell not just snacks but a sense of "safety" and "experience." However, this business is destined to be for a select few, focusing on internal capabilities rather than traffic.